Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With a third of the review period yet to go, we forecast 2 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have moved higher and outperformed the index while the forecast deletes have drifted lower over the last 6 months.</li>
</ul>


With a third of the review period yet to go, we forecast 2 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in December.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
The forecast adds have moved higher and outperformed the index while the forecast deletes have drifted lower over the last 6 months.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in Dec, Big DELTA Capping

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>DELTA is very positive about 4Q25 revenue, expecting it to rise at least 20% QoQ and 65% YoY on strong orders.</li>
<li>We accordingly raise our 2026 profit forecast for DELTA by 17% to Bt29bn (+23% YoY), reinforcing our view that the stock can remain elevated.</li>
<li>The current AI and data center markets mirror the 2021–22 chip shortage, with demand likely strong through mid-next year. However, the share price is above fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


DELTA is very positive about 4Q25 revenue, expecting it to rise at least 20% QoQ and 65% YoY on strong orders.
We accordingly raise our 2026 profit forecast for DELTA by 17% to Bt29bn (+23% YoY), reinforcing our view that the stock can remain elevated.
The current AI and data center markets mirror the 2021–22 chip shortage, with demand likely strong through mid-next year. However, the share price is above fundamentals.


DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) Plc. (DELTA): Poised To Move Ahead

<ul><li>The SG&amp;A-to-sales ratio rose to 14.3% from 12.6%, as higher PE revenue increased royalty payments to the parent firm.</li><li>DELTA posted a net profit of Bt7.4bn, including about Bt1bn in compensation from a commercial contract dispute. We believe DELTA’s true core profit was no more than Bt5.8bn, roughly in line with the market’s estimate but down YoY due to the impact of the global minimum tax.</li><li>GPM hit a record 28.4%, boosted by high-margin PE products. Excluding the inventory write-back of at least Bt600mn, GPM would be around 27%, still showing strong improvement.</li></ul>

The SG&amp;A-to-sales ratio rose to 14.3% from 12.6%, as higher PE revenue increased royalty payments to the parent firm.DELTA posted a net profit of Bt7.4bn, including about Bt1bn in compensation from a commercial contract dispute. We believe DELTA’s true core profit was no more than Bt5.8bn, roughly in line with the market’s estimate but down YoY due to the impact of the global minimum tax.GPM hit a record 28.4%, boosted by high-margin PE products. Excluding the inventory write-back of at least Bt600mn, GPM would be around 27%, still showing strong improvement.

DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) Plc. (DELTA): Earnings Jumped On One-Off Gains

<ul><li>3Q25 net profit is expected at Bt5.4bn (-13% YoY, +9% QoQ), underpinned by resilient orders despite the baht’s appreciation trend.</li><li>We maintain an Underperform rating with a new fair value of Bt130 from Bt104, after rolling over our valuation to next year using a P/E multiple of 66x (+0.5SD).</li><li>We believe 4Q25 will see continued growth, driven by orders for the new plant set to begin production at year-end.</li></ul>

3Q25 net profit is expected at Bt5.4bn (-13% YoY, +9% QoQ), underpinned by resilient orders despite the baht’s appreciation trend.We maintain an Underperform rating with a new fair value of Bt130 from Bt104, after rolling over our valuation to next year using a P/E multiple of 66x (+0.5SD).We believe 4Q25 will see continued growth, driven by orders for the new plant set to begin production at year-end.

DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) Plc. (DELTA): Continued Earnings Growth, But Limited Upside

Event-Driven

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> is trading at a huge valuation premium to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a>, though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand</a> has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> deletion in June.</li>
<li>A placement by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12688:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics (2308 TT)</a> is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) is trading at a huge valuation premium to Delta Electronics (2308 TT), though that has narrowed over the last couple of months.

Delta Electronics Thailand has already been on the Market Surveillance list for 2 months and inclusion for another 2 months will mean SET 50 Index deletion in June.
A placement by Delta Electronics (2308 TT) is not out of the question and that further increases the downside risk for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB).


Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

Thailand

Delta Electronics (Thailand) PCL designs and manufactures electronic equipment. The Company produces power systems for telecommunications, medical equipment, and industrial automation.  Delta also produces fans, electromagnetic interference filters, and solenoids.

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Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in Dec, Big DELTA Capping

There should be 2 constituent changes for the SET50 in Dec. There will also be big selling in DELTA to cap the stock at 10% index weight. The adds...

Brian Freitas

DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) Plc. (DELTA): Poised To Move Ahead

We accordingly raise our 2026 profit forecast for DELTA by 17% to Bt29bn (+23% YoY), reinforcing our view that the stock can remain elevated.

Krungthai XSpring

DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) Plc. (DELTA): Earnings Jumped On One-Off Gains

GPM hit a record 28.4%, boosted by high-margin PE products. Excluding the inventory write-back of at least Bt600mn, GPM would be around 27%, still...

Krungthai XSpring

DELTA ELECTRONICS (THAILAND) Plc. (DELTA): Continued Earnings Growth, But Limited Upside

3Q25 net profit is expected at Bt5.4bn (-13% YoY, +9% QoQ), underpinned by resilient orders despite the baht’s appreciation trend.

Krungthai XSpring

Delta Electronics (DELTA TB / 2308 TT): Off the Peak; SET50 Deletion Risk Increases

The TH line trades at a valuation premium to the TW line. The price ratio is off the highs. Further downside possible if the parent sells down the...

Brian Freitas

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