Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.</li>
<li>The stock is pulling back this week, second consecutive week down, this insight will try to identify price zones where to buy the stock and where to exit / hedge.</li>
<li>BYD could be held past our suggested profit target at 101.8 (in case the next bear rally it's not just a bear-rally), but time-wise it's a 2 weeks rally, tops.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) has been downtrending for a while, a speculative LONG positioning starts to become attractive for some, but according to our model the short-term upside is limited.
The stock is pulling back this week, second consecutive week down, this insight will try to identify price zones where to buy the stock and where to exit / hedge.
BYD could be held past our suggested profit target at 101.8 (in case the next bear rally it's not just a bear-rally), but time-wise it's a 2 weeks rally, tops.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.</li>
<li>
Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.</li>
<li>
Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.</li>
</ul>



Bearish fundamental views are strengthening: Recent Smartkarma Insights argue BYD (1211 HK) is overvalued, with slowing sales growth and valuation multiples pointing to limited upside.

Call overwriting offers efficient yield: Implied volatility in the mid-30s enables attractive income generation.

Strike and expiry selection matter: Short-dated December options provide the best liquidity, while higher strikes balance premium income with room for near-term upside.


BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has produced an enviable growth rate for the last 2 decades in the NEV sector. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1044:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US)</a> has completed selling all its holding in BYD. </li>
<li>The growth rate is no longer as high as before, and therefore demands a new way to evaluate the stock as its PEG increases. </li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) has produced an enviable growth rate for the last 2 decades in the NEV sector. 

Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl A (BRK/A US) has completed selling all its holding in BYD. 
The growth rate is no longer as high as before, and therefore demands a new way to evaluate the stock as its PEG increases. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> does not seem ready yet to reverse its downtrend, sentiment is still negative (not too negative), Q3 revenues decreased (no surprise, as recently noted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ming-lu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2496" rel="noopener">Ming Lu</a>).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD</a> is short-term OVERSOLD, this is a tactical WEEKLY view presenting an actionable opportunity with a 1-3 week trade horizon (probably a 2 weeks rebound, maximum).</li>
<li>Our quantitative models say the stock will not correct for more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered (the stock is currently in its second consecutive week down).</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) does not seem ready yet to reverse its downtrend, sentiment is still negative (not too negative), Q3 revenues decreased (no surprise, as recently noted by Ming Lu).

BYD is short-term OVERSOLD, this is a tactical WEEKLY view presenting an actionable opportunity with a 1-3 week trade horizon (probably a 2 weeks rebound, maximum).
Our quantitative models say the stock will not correct for more than 3 weeks when this pattern is encountered (the stock is currently in its second consecutive week down).


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Still Downtrending, But OVERSOLD

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. BYD’s 3Q25 earnings recovered QoQ, although the pace was below our prior expectation.</li><li>We believe its industry-leading technologies, previous high earnings quality, lessons learnt from pricing strategy and inventory management in FY25 could support its earnings resilience ahead.</li><li>3Q25 earnings miss on GPM, forex loss. BYD’s 3Q25 revenue fell 3% YoY amid a 2% sales volume decline YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. BYD’s 3Q25 earnings recovered QoQ, although the pace was below our prior expectation.We believe its industry-leading technologies, previous high earnings quality, lessons learnt from pricing strategy and inventory management in FY25 could support its earnings resilience ahead.3Q25 earnings miss on GPM, forex loss. BYD’s 3Q25 revenue fell 3% YoY amid a 2% sales volume decline YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) - Recover Gradually

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

BYD (1211 HK) downtrend may be turning attractive for some as a speculative LONG position, but the short-term upside is limited according to our...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Amid bearish views, a targeted call-overwrite strategy delivers efficient yield through well-chosen strikes and expiries.

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211): Time to Sell

BYD's impressive growth in NEV sector faces new evaluation challenges as Berkshire Hathaway exits its holdings. Time to sell as growth rate fell.

Henry Soediarko

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Still Downtrending, But OVERSOLD

BYD (1211 HK) is still in a downtrend, sentiment still negative, but our model says it is short-term oversold: this is a tactical buy opportunity...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) - Recover Gradually

We believe its industry-leading technologies, previous high earnings quality, lessons learnt from pricing strategy and inventory management in FY25...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Time To Go LONG? Not Yet.

​BYD (1211 HK) downtrend may be turning attractive for some as a speculative LONG position, but the short-term upside is limited according to our...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK): Leverage Softening Fundamentals with Short Calls

Amid bearish views, a targeted call-overwrite strategy delivers efficient yield through well-chosen strikes and expiries.

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211): Time to Sell

​BYD's impressive growth in NEV sector faces new evaluation challenges as Berkshire Hathaway exits its holdings. Time to sell as growth rate fell.

Henry Soediarko

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Still Downtrending, But OVERSOLD

​BYD (1211 HK) is still in a downtrend, sentiment still negative, but our model says it is short-term oversold: this is a tactical buy opportunity...

Nico Rosti

BYD (1211 HK/002594 CH) - Recover Gradually

We believe its industry-leading technologies, previous high earnings quality, lessons learnt from pricing strategy and inventory management in FY25...

CMB International

BYD (1211 HK) downtrend may be turning attractive for some as a speculative LONG position, but the short-term upside is limited according to our...

BYD's impressive growth in NEV sector faces new evaluation challenges as Berkshire Hathaway exits its holdings. Time to sell as growth rate fell.

BYD (1211 HK) is still in a downtrend, sentiment still negative, but our model says it is short-term oversold: this is a tactical buy opportunity...