Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-leapmotor-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35968:1" rel="noopener">Leapmotor (2007699D HK)</a>  is a leading smart EV company in China. The company plans to raise net proceeds of US$904m through its HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/leapmotor-ipo-stuck-in-the-middle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80837" rel="noopener">Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle</a> , we concluded that the company will have to compromise on margins to grow its top line.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that Leapmotor’s shares are not even attractive at the lower-end of the IPO price range and the premium vs local peers is hard to justify.</li>
</ul>



Leapmotor (2007699D HK)  is a leading smart EV company in China. The company plans to raise net proceeds of US$904m through its HKEx IPO.
In our previous insight Leapmotor IPO: Stuck in the Middle , we concluded that the company will have to compromise on margins to grow its top line.
Our valuation analysis suggests that Leapmotor’s shares are not even attractive at the lower-end of the IPO price range and the premium vs local peers is hard to justify.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) wholesale volume surged 37% YoY to 2.13mn units in Aug 2022, 1% higher than our prior projection.</li><li>Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.</li><li>Retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 18% YoY to 1.89mn units, 2% lower than our prior forecast.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) wholesale volume surged 37% YoY to 2.13mn units in Aug 2022, 1% higher than our prior projection.Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.Retail sales volume, based on insurance data, rose 18% YoY to 1.89mn units, 2% lower than our prior forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – What we worried earlier is partially priced in now

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, a few large Hong Kong IPOs are rumoured to be aiming to launch their bookbuild next week.</li>
<li>There was only the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a> mega entitlement offer this week, on the placements front.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, a few large Hong Kong IPOs are rumoured to be aiming to launch their bookbuild next week.
There was only the Atlas Arteria (ALX AU) mega entitlement offer this week, on the placements front.


ECM Weekly (18th Sep 2022) - CALB, Onewo, Leapmotor, WCP, Biogene, Socionext, Prop Guru, PayMate

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li><p>NEVs / In Depth: New battle lines emerge in China’s shifting NEV market. </p></li><li><p>Foreign affairs / Xi and Putin vow to have each other’s back. </p></li><li><p>Drought / Central China’s Hunan province faces severe drought. </p></li></ul>

NEVs / In Depth: New battle lines emerge in China’s shifting NEV market. Foreign affairs / Xi and Putin vow to have each other’s back. Drought / Central China’s Hunan province faces severe drought. 

CX Daily: New Battle Lines Emerge in China’s Shifting NEV Market

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Xinyi Solar Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.</li><li>Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.</li><li>I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.</li></ul>

The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

Leapmotor IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

Based on our revenue forecasts using expected EV deliveries, we think Leapmotor's IPO is overvalued and is not even attractive at the lower end....

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

China Auto Sector – What we worried earlier is partially priced in now

Similar to Jul 2022, that figure made the best Aug wholesale volume in history and 13% higher than the second-best Aug sales occurred in 2017.

CMB International

ECM Weekly (18th Sep 2022) - CALB, Onewo, Leapmotor, WCP, Biogene, Socionext, Prop Guru, PayMate

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

CX Daily: New Battle Lines Emerge in China’s Shifting NEV Market

NEVs / In Depth: New battle lines emerge in China’s shifting NEV market. Foreign affairs / Xi and Putin vow to have each other’s back.

Caixin Global

Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.

Untying The Gordian Knot

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