Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below HK$100bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly HK$19bn, which is decent.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS and TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools section</a> of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below HK$100bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly HK$19bn, which is decent.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS and TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> has been rallying hard since its 309.80 bottom in early april, the stock closed at 465.20 last Friday, a +50% rally! Probably well deserved.</li>
<li>This insight analyzes the short-term tactical outlook on a WEEKLY time period basis. Our model finds that the stock is currently very overbought, however some upside is still possible.
</li>
<li>
You may want to consider hedging your bets with some puts (probably cheap at this point), 1-2 weeks expiry, to protect against a (probably mild), upcoming pullback.</li>
</ul>



BYD (1211 HK) has been rallying hard since its 309.80 bottom in early april, the stock closed at 465.20 last Friday, a +50% rally! Probably well deserved.
This insight analyzes the short-term tactical outlook on a WEEKLY time period basis. Our model finds that the stock is currently very overbought, however some upside is still possible.


You may want to consider hedging your bets with some puts (probably cheap at this point), 1-2 weeks expiry, to protect against a (probably mild), upcoming pullback.


BYD (1211 HK) Outlook: Near-Term Upside Still Possible, but Rally Looks Stretched...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in June following the launch of God's Eye, its Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>'s inclusion results in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature (772 HK)</a> being deleted from the index. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature</a> stock should drop over the near-term.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 13% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$46.5bn (US$5.95bn). There are 16 stocks that have at least 1x ADV to trade from passives.</li>
</ul>


As expected, BYD (1211 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in June following the launch of God's Eye, its Advanced Driver-Assistance System (ADAS).

BYD (1211 HK)'s inclusion results in China Literature (772 HK) being deleted from the index. China Literature stock should drop over the near-term.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 13% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$46.5bn (US$5.95bn). There are 16 stocks that have at least 1x ADV to trade from passives.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>Over the past five trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.</li>
<li>
Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. </li>
</ul>


Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.

Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in BYD (1211 HK). A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. 


BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold

SOUTHBOUND volumes remain decent, if not overwhelming, but net buying was strong this past week at +HK$19bn. Telecoms and financials were bought....

Travis Lundy

BYD (1211 HK) Outlook: Near-Term Upside Still Possible, but Rally Looks Stretched...

BYD (1211 HK) has rallied 50% since its early April bottom, it is quite overbought now. Consider hedging with puts for protection against an...

Nico Rosti

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

In a change that was not widely forecast, BYD will replace China Literature in the index. That change plus large FAF changes set off a huge trade....

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

BYD (1211 HK) option strategies show focus on bearish views with Put Spreads dominating. Lottery Trades gain popularity for low probability, high...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 23 May 2025); Volumes OK, Telecoms & Banks Bought, Tech & Consumer Sold

SOUTHBOUND volumes remain decent, if not overwhelming, but net buying was strong this past week at +HK$19bn. Telecoms and financials were bought....

Travis Lundy

BYD (1211 HK) Outlook: Near-Term Upside Still Possible, but Rally Looks Stretched...

​BYD (1211 HK) has rallied 50% since its early April bottom, it is quite overbought now. Consider hedging with puts for protection against an...

Nico Rosti

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

In a change that was not widely forecast, BYD will replace China Literature in the index. That change plus large FAF changes set off a huge trade....

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

​BYD (1211 HK) option strategies show focus on bearish views with Put Spreads dominating. Lottery Trades gain popularity for low probability, high...

Gaudenz Schneider

BYD (1211 HK) has rallied 50% since its early April bottom, it is quite overbought now. Consider hedging with puts for protection against an...

BYD (1211 HK) option strategies show focus on bearish views with Put Spreads dominating. Lottery Trades gain popularity for low probability, high...