Frontier and emerging markets (Vietnam)

Dylan Waller

Nomadic Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Norway, Colombia, and Nigeria Amid Low Oil Prices The low oil price environment since late 2014 has put varying levels of strain on oil exporting countries and has also provided a benchmark of which countries have some of the most resilient oil producing companies.  As outlined in previous insights, I am bullish on several Vietnamese oil &amp; gas companies which have been able to fare well in this low oil price environment and could experience a strong rebound if oil prices rebound.  The World Bank…

Norway, Colombia, and Nigeria Amid Low Oil Prices  The low oil price environment since late 2014 has put varying levels of strain on oil exporting countries and has also provided a benchmark of which countries have some of the most resilient oil producing companies.  As outlined in previous insights, I am bullish on several Vietnamese oil &amp; gas companies which have been able to fare well in this low oil price environment and could experience a strong rebound if oil prices rebound.  The World Bank…

Overview of Opportunities in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Norway

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expected earnings in red until last quarter of 2019</li>
<li>Capital expenditure limited to retrofit dual fuel engines; ~91% of the fleet deployed in the spot market</li>
<li>In order to maintain unrestricted cash balance within USD 44-45m, the company will be required to refinance debt in 2019; the ratio of current net debt to market adjusted fleet value is maintained at 67%</li>
<li>By the end of 1Q19, 4 terminals will become operational and will help absorb excess tonnage in the VLGC market</li>
</ul><div class="content-caption">
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/076/523/original/Valuation%20guidance_BW%20LPG.PNG?1548321476" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="76523"></figure><div class="content-caption">Valuation guidance</div>

</div>
Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ
</div>


Expected earnings in red until last quarter of 2019
Capital expenditure limited to retrofit dual fuel engines; ~91% of the fleet deployed in the spot market
In order to maintain unrestricted cash balance within USD 44-45m, the company will be required to refinance debt in 2019; the ratio of current net debt to market adjusted fleet value is maintained at 67%
By the end of 1Q19, 4 terminals will become operational and will help absorb excess tonnage in the VLGC market


Valuation guidance


Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ


BW LPG (OB:BWLPG): New Terminal Capacities Slated for 2019-20 to Help Absorb Excess Tonnage

Lead Analyst, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Victoria Saraglis

Lead Analyst

- Offer revised by BW LPG as Dorian rejects earlier proposal: On 15 June 2018, Dorian declined BW LPG’s offer made in May 2018 to combine in an all-stock transaction, stating that the offer undervalued Dorian. In response, BW LPG has made another offer to Dorian, proposing to increase the exchange ratio from 2.05 to 2.12 per share of Dorian, with other terms remaining constant. Furthermore, BW LPG has nominated three independent directors to stand for election at Dorian’s annual general meeting. Dorian’s board is evaluating the revised proposal and the nomination of three independent directors named by BW LPG. As mentioned earlier, in the event that the merger is consummated, the combined entity will control ~25% of all VLGCs on the water today.-Financial performance: The company’s losses increased to a staggering USD 27m in the second quarter of 2018, which is deemed the seasonally weakest quarter of the year, from USD 8.4m in the previous quarter of 2018.

-  Offer revised by BW LPG as Dorian rejects earlier proposal: On 15 June 2018, Dorian declined BW LPG’s offer made in May 2018 to combine in an all-stock transaction, stating that the offer undervalued Dorian. In response, BW LPG has made another offer to Dorian, proposing to increase the exchange ratio from 2.05 to 2.12 per share of Dorian, with other terms remaining constant. Furthermore, BW LPG has nominated three independent directors to stand for election at Dorian’s annual general meeting. Dorian’s board is evaluating the revised proposal and the nomination of three independent directors named by BW LPG. As mentioned earlier, in the event that the merger is consummated, the combined entity will control ~25% of all VLGCs on the water today.-Financial performance: The company’s losses increased to a staggering USD 27m in the second quarter of 2018, which is deemed the seasonally weakest quarter of the year, from USD 8.4m in the previous quarter of 2018. 

Will BW LPG’s Revised Offer to Dorian Render ‘white Smoke’?

<ol><li> Proposal made by BW LPG to Dorian LPG</li></ol>On 29 May 2018, BW LPG offered to combine with Dorian LPG Ltd (‘Dorian’) in an all-stock transaction. Dorian’s board is evaluating this proposal and has insofar not made any public comments in respect of this offer. Despite the underlying weakness in VLGC freight rates, on 30 May 2018, the stock price of BW LPG shot up 10% to NOK 34.40 (USD 4.22), and that of Dorian shot up 15% to USD 8.41. Evidently, the proposed transaction and its potential synergies have…

 Proposal made by BW LPG to Dorian LPGOn 29 May 2018, BW LPG offered to combine with Dorian LPG Ltd (‘Dorian’) in an all-stock transaction. Dorian’s board is evaluating this proposal and has insofar not made any public comments in respect of this offer. Despite the underlying weakness in VLGC freight rates, on 30 May 2018, the stock price of BW LPG shot up 10% to NOK 34.40 (USD 4.22), and that of Dorian shot up 15% to USD 8.41. Evidently, the proposed transaction and its potential synergies have…

Does BW LPG’s Proposed Combination with Dorian LPG Benefit Shareholders?

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Event-Driven

Shipping, specifically LPG tanker shipping, made headlines this week with a takeover offer via an all-stock transaction from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21082" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21082:1">BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG NO)</a> (in Norway, but controlled by the Singapore-based Sohmen-Pao family) for US-listed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19102" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19102:1">Dorian Lpg Ltd (LPG US)</a>.For a quick summary of the proposed combined company of BW LPG and Dorian LPG please read the media <a href="https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/bw-lpg-looks-to-acquire-hadjipateras-led-dorian-lpg-in-a-deal-worth-1-1-billion/" target="_blank">media stories</a> first. Then, for more on the offer direct from BW, please refer to the <a href="http://www.bwlpg.com/Media/May-2018-(1)/BW-LPG-PROPOSES-TO-COMBINE-WITH-DORIAN-IN-ALL-STOC" target="_blank">summary proposed offer</a>.BW LPG is already the largest VLGC (very large gas carrier) player, but there are good reasons for BW LPG to move on Dorian LPG. And there may be additional drivers coming into play.We look at recent history and current issues &amp; drivers in our update.

Shipping, specifically LPG tanker shipping, made headlines this week with a takeover offer via an all-stock transaction from BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG NO) (in Norway, but controlled by the Singapore-based Sohmen-Pao family) for US-listed Dorian Lpg Ltd (LPG US).For a quick summary of the proposed combined company of BW LPG and Dorian LPG please read the media media stories first. Then, for more on the offer direct from BW, please refer to the summary proposed offer.BW LPG is already the largest VLGC (very large gas carrier) player, but there are good reasons for BW LPG to move on Dorian LPG. And there may be additional drivers coming into play.We look at recent history and current issues &amp; drivers in our update.

Shipping Consolidation: BW LPG Bids for Dorian LPG in $1.1bn EV Valuation

Norway

BW LPG Limited provides safe, reliable and cost-efficient maritime transportation solutions to customers. The Company links areas of supply and demand globally with its fleet of LPG carriers, which is managed by experienced officers and crew. BW LPG is operating out of Singapore and its fleet operates on a combination of spot voyages, contracts of affreightment, and time charters.

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BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG NO)

Overview of Opportunities in Asia, Africa, Latin America and Norway

Norway, Colombia, and Nigeria Amid Low Oil PricesThe low oil price environment since late 2014 has put varying levels of strain on oil exporting...

Nomadic Equity

BW LPG (OB:BWLPG): New Terminal Capacities Slated for 2019-20 to Help Absorb Excess Tonnage

Expected earnings in red until last quarter of 2019 Capital expenditure limited to retrofit dual fuel engines; ~91% of the fleet deployed in the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Will BW LPG’s Revised Offer to Dorian Render ‘white Smoke’?

- Offer revised by BW LPG as Dorian rejects earlier proposal: On 15 June 2018, Dorian declined BW LPG’s offer made in May 2018 to combine in an...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Does BW LPG’s Proposed Combination with Dorian LPG Benefit Shareholders?

Proposal made by BW LPG to Dorian LPGOn 29 May 2018, BW LPG offered to combine with Dorian LPG Ltd (‘Dorian’) in an all-stock transaction....

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Shipping Consolidation: BW LPG Bids for Dorian LPG in $1.1bn EV Valuation

Shipping, specifically LPG tanker shipping, made headlines this week with a takeover offer via an all-stock transaction from BW LPG Ltd (BWLPG NO)...

Charles De Trenck

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