Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding | US to implement additional export controls to China • InPost | step-up in deployment APMs in the UK and extension of cross-border proposition • Dutch retail sales | up 2.0% YoY in value and up 0.6% YoY in volume in October • Black Friday update | Sunday’s iDEAL transaction data showed a modest YoY increase</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding | US to implement additional export controls to China • InPost | step-up in deployment APMs in the UK and extension of cross-border proposition • Dutch retail sales | up 2.0% YoY in value and up 0.6% YoY in volume in October • Black Friday update | Sunday’s iDEAL transaction data showed a modest YoY increase

What's News in Amsterdam - 3 December (ASM International | ASML Holding | InPost | Dutch retail sales | Black Friday update)

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>A case against ASML being brought by the Hollywood Firefighters Pension Fund (HFPF) is now opening up into a class action lawsuit</li>
<li>Claims that ASML withheld crucial information from investors in the Jan-Oct 2024 time period, e.g. impact of US sanctions, strength of the semi recovery, order backlog etc. </li>
<li>In reality, ASML warned in October 2023 that 2024 would be a zero growth year. Did the HFPF think they were kidding?</li>
</ul>


A case against ASML being brought by the Hollywood Firefighters Pension Fund (HFPF) is now opening up into a class action lawsuit
Claims that ASML withheld crucial information from investors in the Jan-Oct 2024 time period, e.g. impact of US sanctions, strength of the semi recovery, order backlog etc. 
In reality, ASML warned in October 2023 that 2024 would be a zero growth year. Did the HFPF think they were kidding?


ASML. Class Action Lawsuit Looms As Share Price Declines 37% From Peak

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.</li>
<li>HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. </li>
<li>140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). </li>
</ul>


An additional 24 Equipment are added to the restriction list (negative to AMAT, KLA, LAM). No explicit restrictions on ASML or Tokyo Electron, but that’s done indirectly.
HBM Memory sales to China restricted (directly negative to Samsung), but restriction of DRAM Manufacturing Equipment sales is long-term positive to Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix. 
140 Chinese firms added to the Entity List, including all China’s Semi Production Equipment makers (Naura, AMEC, Piotech, SiCarrier). 


US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI boom reflected in record fund ownership in ASML Holding NV (ASML NA), NVIDIA Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).</li>
<li>The 'Magnificent 7' group of stocks have hit a record underweight of -6.83% below the MSCI ACWI index.  They collectively account for 11.2% of the average Global fund.</li>
<li>Recovery Stocks: The old guard of At&amp;T Inc (T US), International Business Machines (IBM US) and General Electric (GE US) appear to be gathering some support from active Global funds.</li>
</ul>


AI boom reflected in record fund ownership in ASML Holding NV (ASML NA), NVIDIA Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).
The 'Magnificent 7' group of stocks have hit a record underweight of -6.83% below the MSCI ACWI index.  They collectively account for 11.2% of the average Global fund.
Recovery Stocks: The old guard of At&amp;T Inc (T US), International Business Machines (IBM US) and General Electric (GE US) appear to be gathering some support from active Global funds.


Global Stock Positioning:  MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY</li>
<li>Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level</li>
<li>After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. </li>
</ul>


Revenues of $7.05 billion were marginally higher than midpoint of $6.93 billion, up 4% QoQ and up 5% YoY.  Guided current quarter at $7.15 billion +1.5% QoQ , +10.5% YoY
Most WFE share prices have retreated to early 2022 levels, matching with when annual revenues first exceeded the $100 billion level
After a 44% growth spurt in 2021, we have had three years with mostly no growth. We expect the same in 2025. 


For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

What's News in Amsterdam - 3 December (ASM International | ASML Holding | InPost | Dutch retail sales | Black Friday update)

In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding | US to implement additional export controls to China • InPost | step-up in deployment APMs in...

The IDEA!

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Stock Positioning: MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

The latest in stock-level investor positioning among over 300 active Global funds. We explore the AI boom, key over/underweights, Tobacco's...

Steven Holden

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

What's News in Amsterdam - 3 December (ASM International | ASML Holding | InPost | Dutch retail sales | Black Friday update)

In this edition: • ASM International / ASML Holding | US to implement additional export controls to China • InPost | step-up in deployment APMs in...

The IDEA!

ASML. Class Action Lawsuit Looms As Share Price Declines 37% From Peak

Class action lawsuit looms over ASML execs. Claims they misled investors from Jan-Oct 2024. In reality they warned investors in Oct 2023 that 2024...

William Keating

US Restriction on Semi Export to China Negative for All Equipment Makers, Naura, AMEC, ASML, TEL

​New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...

Nicolas Baratte

Global Stock Positioning: MSFT Dominates, Mag7 Record U/W, Apple Inflows, Tobacco Uninvestable?

The latest in stock-level investor positioning among over 300 active Global funds. We explore the AI boom, key over/underweights, Tobacco's...

Steven Holden

For Its WFE Q324 Season Finale, AMAT Returns ASML's Favour & Sinks Semis Yet Again

AMAT's so-so quarter & outlook tanked semis as earnings season ends, just like ASML did when it began. Most WFE share prices are now back at early...

William Keating

New restrictions on equipment sales and Entity List additions impact semiconductor industry players, with mostly negative implications as SPE...