Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V.'s 2025 third-quarter financial results reveal both strengths and challenges, reflecting the company's complex position within the semiconductor supply chain.</li><li>For Q3 2025, ASML reported total net sales of EUR 7.5 billion, aligning with their guidance.</li><li>Net system sales were EUR 5.6 billion, with EUV system sales, including High-NA systems, contributing EUR 2.1 billion and non-EUV system sales contributing EUR 3.4 billion.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V.'s 2025 third-quarter financial results reveal both strengths and challenges, reflecting the company's complex position within the semiconductor supply chain.For Q3 2025, ASML reported total net sales of EUR 7.5 billion, aligning with their guidance.Net system sales were EUR 5.6 billion, with EUV system sales, including High-NA systems, contributing EUR 2.1 billion and non-EUV system sales contributing EUR 3.4 billion.

ASML: Is The Growth In EUV & High-NA Lithography Here To Stay Amidst The AI Revolution?

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Key points (machine generated)<ul><li>ASML is the only company producing EUV lithography machines for advanced chip fabrication under 7 nanometers.</li><li>The EUV technology involves a complex process using molten tin droplets and lasers to create plasma for radiation.</li><li>ASML has a 100% market share in EUV systems and over 90% in leading-edge DUV tools, after 30 years of development.</li></ul>This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Key points (machine generated)ASML is the only company producing EUV lithography machines for advanced chip fabrication under 7 nanometers.The EUV technology involves a complex process using molten tin droplets and lasers to create plasma for radiation.ASML has a 100% market share in EUV systems and over 90% in leading-edge DUV tools, after 30 years of development.This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Sunday, Jul 27, 2025

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.</li>
<li>ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?</li>
<li>ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.</li>
</ul>


Positive Management tone, as always, but no material clarification on 2026 revenues: China down (back to “normal”), Low NA EUV increase, some High NA but that’s still  pre-production.
ASML has many qualities: monopoly, litho intensity increasing. Downside risks: how low China revenue go, is Mngt still double counting TSMC + Intel capacity, expectations for High NA too high?
ASML is a lot more expensive than AMD, NVDA, MU, SK, TSM for very low growth. I don't like Broadcom for same reason: better Price / Growth in AMD, NVDA.


ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Q325 revenues of €7.5 billion, slightly down on the prior quarter and towards the bottom end of the guided range</li>
<li>Looking ahead, the company is forecasting fourth quarter revenues of €9.5 billion at the midpoint, a significant jump QoQ but again in line with prior expectations.</li>
<li>Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML "closer to the AI world"</li>
</ul>


Q325 revenues of €7.5 billion, slightly down on the prior quarter and towards the bottom end of the guided range
Looking ahead, the company is forecasting fourth quarter revenues of €9.5 billion at the midpoint, a significant jump QoQ but again in line with prior expectations.
Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML "closer to the AI world"


ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

<ul>
<li>3Q25 small miss (OP -3% below Consensus), 4Q beat (11% above). 3Q saw large increase in China revenues (+54% QoQ) maybe Chinese Fabs concerned about US restrictions. EUV -21% QoQ.   </li>
<li>Last quarter Management mentioned “we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm at this stage”. Now: “ASML does not expect 2026 total sales to be below 2025".</li>
<li>Management maintains its 2030 targets “revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, gross margin between 56% and 60%“. Nothing new to talk about.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 small miss (OP -3% below Consensus), 4Q beat (11% above). 3Q saw large increase in China revenues (+54% QoQ) maybe Chinese Fabs concerned about US restrictions. EUV -21% QoQ.   
Last quarter Management mentioned “we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm at this stage”. Now: “ASML does not expect 2026 total sales to be below 2025".
Management maintains its 2030 targets “revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion, gross margin between 56% and 60%“. Nothing new to talk about.


ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients world wide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML NA)

ASML: Is The Growth In EUV & High-NA Lithography Here To Stay Amidst The AI Revolution?

ASML Holding N.V.'s 2025 third-quarter financial results reveal both strengths and challenges, reflecting the company's complex position within...

Baptista Research

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Sunday, Jul 27, 2025

ASML is the sole producer of EUV lithography machines, crucial for advanced chip fabrication under 7nm, achieved through decades of research and...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML...

William Keating

ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

ASML reports mixed results for Q3, better guidance for Q4. Management remains optimistic about future growth and maintains 2030 targets but can't...

Nicolas Baratte

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ASML: Is The Growth In EUV & High-NA Lithography Here To Stay Amidst The AI Revolution?

ASML Holding N.V.'s 2025 third-quarter financial results reveal both strengths and challenges, reflecting the company's complex position within...

Baptista Research

Asml Holding Nv (ASML) - Sunday, Jul 27, 2025

ASML is the sole producer of EUV lithography machines, crucial for advanced chip fabrication under 7nm, achieved through decades of research and...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

ASML: No Clarification on 2026, China Procurement in Excess of End-Demand, High NA Start in 2028

​ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Q325 Earnings In Line, Outlook More Positive Compared To Prior Quarter, Big Emphasis On AI

Mood music improved, 2026 revenues "not be below 2025", China sales soared to 42%, but will decline next year, 11% stake in Mistral gets ASML...

William Keating

ASML: 3Q25 Small Miss, 4Q Guidance a Beat, Still No Visibility on 2026 “revenue Not Below 2025”

​ASML reports mixed results for Q3, better guidance for Q4. Management remains optimistic about future growth and maintains 2030 targets but can't...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML's positive management tone lacks material clarification on 2026 revenues. Concerns: China revenue, double counting TSMC + Intel capacity,...

ASML reports mixed results for Q3, better guidance for Q4. Management remains optimistic about future growth and maintains 2030 targets but can't...