European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.</li>
</ul>


December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.
Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.</li>
<li>MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.</li>
</ul>


Dual-Class spreads tightened in November, with convergence trades resurfacing as volatility falls and liquidity normalises.
MFE, Grifols and Henkel offer the cleanest A/B convergence setups into year-end.
Nordic anomalies persist: Handelsbanken’s extreme premium and SSAB’s micro-discount remain the strongest dispersion opportunities.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.</li>
<li>Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mixed: Henkel prefs 9.1%, Atlas Copco B-to-A 11.8%, BMW prefs 7.1%; wideners include Handelsbanken B at 73%, Sixt prefs 27%.
Drivers: liquidity, index flows, and deleveraging—Volkswagen prefs benefit from yield and DAX flows; MFE discount narrows post-ProSieben; Handelsbanken and Fuchs remain valuation anomalies.
Actionables: long MFE A/B, Grifols B/A, Henkel ords/prefs, Volkswagen prefs/ords; fade Handelsbanken B; monitor Investor, Industrivärden, and Volvo parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.</li>
<li>Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.</li>
</ul>


Across Europe’s dual-class names, spreads mostly tightened: Atlas Copco B-to-A 10.8%, BMW prefs 7.2%, Volvo at par; notable wideners include Carlsberg B at 19.5% discount and SSAB B at 2.6%.
Drivers include index inclusion, liquidity and control: Volkswagen prefs gain from flows and €0.06 dividend uplift; Telecom Italia savings widen on arrears prospects; Handelsbanken and Fuchs maintain puzzling elevated premiums.
Actionables: long MFE A versus B as ProSieben settlement lifts liquidity; Grifols B versus A on deleveraging; Henkel ords versus prefs; Volkswagen prefs versus ords; monitor Ericsson, Investor, Industrivärden parity.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

<ul>
<li>MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.</li>
<li>Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.</li>
</ul>


MFE: A versus B discount widened to 32.2%. ProSiebenSat.1 tender issues new A shares, lifting A voting share from 12.64% toward ~19% at full take-up, supporting medium-term convergence.
Handelsbanken: B shares trade at a 62% premium despite far lower votes (ratio 55.17) and liquidity; history suggests mean reversion—bias long A / short B.
Telecom Italia: savings premium 11.4%. Three years of unpaid €0.0275 dividends (€0.0825 arrears). Payouts guided from 2026; Poste Italiane now largest shareholder, reinforcing governance stability.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

Spain

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

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Grifols SA (GRF SM)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

December added technical noise, not thesis risk: median spreads were unchanged, convergence paused but intact, marginal voting premia erode, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November'25 Report

Dual-class spreads tightened in November as liquidity improved. MFE, Grifols and Henkel lead convergence opportunities, while Nordic...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October'25 Report

European dual-class spreads diverged in October; liquidity and control themes dominate. Favor convergence longs (MFE, Grifols, Henkel, VW), fade...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September'25 Report

This month’s color: MFE A/B narrows on ProSieben; VW prefs outpace ords; Atlas Copco & BMW tighten; Carlsberg B and SSAB B widen; TIM savings bid...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '25 Report

Across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe, share-price spreads have mainly tightened. Convergence plays: MFE A/B as A votes rise; TIM savings...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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