European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On November 27, Brookfield withdrew its €6.45 billion takeover bid for Grifols, citing valuation disagreements, shareholder resistance, and financing challenges after months of negotiation.</li>
<li>Grifols’ shareholders sought valuations near €14 per share, far above Brookfield’s offer, other challenges included regulatory hurdles requiring 75% approval and financing constraints due to rising interest rates.</li>
<li>The failed bid underscores Grifols’ focus on recovery, leveraging its plasma-derived therapies market position while addressing high leverage, cash flow concerns, and governance to restore investor confidence.</li>
</ul>


On November 27, Brookfield withdrew its €6.45 billion takeover bid for Grifols, citing valuation disagreements, shareholder resistance, and financing challenges after months of negotiation.
Grifols’ shareholders sought valuations near €14 per share, far above Brookfield’s offer, other challenges included regulatory hurdles requiring 75% approval and financing constraints due to rising interest rates.
The failed bid underscores Grifols’ focus on recovery, leveraging its plasma-derived therapies market position while addressing high leverage, cash flow concerns, and governance to restore investor confidence.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&amp;i for "additional actionable avenues."</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amcor-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:674:1" rel="noopener">Amcor Limited (AMC AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berry-global-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9428:1" rel="noopener">Berry Global Group (BERY US)</a> merger looks clean. However, Berry's % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split</li>
<li>This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tuya-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32158:1" rel="noopener">Tuya Inc (TUYA US)</a>. Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.</li>
</ul>


At equal price to ACT, Ito-san wins because of certainty/immediacy, but provided his price is above the bottom of the range and adequately compensates 7&amp;i for "additional actionable avenues."
The Amcor Limited (AMC AU)/Berry Global Group (BERY US) merger looks clean. However, Berry's % of earnings (revs, EBITDA, and profit), are higher than the % under the share split
This Temasek-led development will have a marginal impact on Tuya Inc (TUYA US). Creating supply and demand is hard. And Temasek-held/backed vehicles on the SGX are already abundant.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya

<ul>
<li>Rejected Offer: Grifols' independent committee rejected Brookfield's proposed valuation of €10.50 per Class A share €7.62 per Class B share, citing significant undervaluation of the company's long-term prospects.</li>
<li>Stakeholder Dynamics: Brookfield seeks a statutory amendment to differentiate Class A and B share prices, while opposition from Brandes (13.5% of Class B shares) and Mason complicates negotiations.</li>
<li>Financial Recovery: Grifols achieved 12% revenue growth in Q3 2024, reduced net debt to €8.1 billion, and targets a 4.5x leverage ratio by year-end, supporting improved financial stability.</li>
</ul>


Rejected Offer: Grifols' independent committee rejected Brookfield's proposed valuation of €10.50 per Class A share €7.62 per Class B share, citing significant undervaluation of the company's long-term prospects.
Stakeholder Dynamics: Brookfield seeks a statutory amendment to differentiate Class A and B share prices, while opposition from Brandes (13.5% of Class B shares) and Mason complicates negotiations.
Financial Recovery: Grifols achieved 12% revenue growth in Q3 2024, reduced net debt to €8.1 billion, and targets a 4.5x leverage ratio by year-end, supporting improved financial stability.


Lowball Non-Binding Indication from Brookfield

<ul>
<li>Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.</li>
<li>Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have tightened, 9 widened). Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so.
Most spreads that were already tightening, kept doing so. Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

<ul>
<li>There are people who'll take profit in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a> because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.</li>
<li>Just like in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lufax-holding-ltd-b751749a-8feb-4b4d-85a7-d99ac0308fe7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40067:1" rel="noopener">Lufax Holding (6623 HK)</a>'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK)</a> via the stealthy scrip dividend option. </li>
<li>The landscape for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a> has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  </li>
</ul>


There are people who'll take profit in Seven &amp; I (3382 JP) because of path dependency til year-end. It will drag out a while: buy the dips, trim on pops.
Just like in Lufax Holding (6623 HK)'s special dividend, expect Ping An to boost its holding in Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) via the stealthy scrip dividend option. 
The landscape for Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP) has FULLY changed. The details now matter quite a bit. NEC has two basic choices. Neither are that palatable.  


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

Spain

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

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Grifols SA (GRF SM)

Brookfield's Bid for Grifols Collapses

Brookfield withdraws €6.45 billion takeover bid for Grifols due to valuation disagreements, shareholder resistance, and financing challenges.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Lowball Non-Binding Indication from Brookfield

Rejected Offer: Grifols' independent committee rejected Brookfield's proposed valuation of €10.50 per Class A share, citing significant...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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Brookfield's Bid for Grifols Collapses

​Brookfield withdraws €6.45 billion takeover bid for Grifols due to valuation disagreements, shareholder resistance, and financing challenges.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, Amcor/Berry, WH Group/Smithfield, Tuya

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Lowball Non-Binding Indication from Brookfield

Rejected Offer: Grifols' independent committee rejected Brookfield's proposed valuation of €10.50 per Class A share, citing significant...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: November‘24 Report

Since mid-October, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (10 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, PA Gooddoctor, Nec Networks, Genscript/Legend, ASM PT, Hanwha

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield withdraws €6.45 billion takeover bid for Grifols due to valuation disagreements, shareholder resistance, and financing challenges.