Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: The narrative has changed and there is little to stand in the way of further Treasury market strength near term. This should lead to US dollar weakness and may be Emerging Market risk asset supportive. Nonetheless, we suspect that Asia will remain driven by concerns that China is tightening which could constrain investor sentiment in this market.Trading volume-, Treasury issuance- and economic data-risks were no match for short-position unwinding, data reappraisal, and Japanese investor re-entry into the Treasury bond market over the last week. Treasury yields continued their retracement, posting their biggest weekly rally since August. Furthermore, after the worst quarter since 1980, Treasuries have gained around 1% this month, paring 2021 losses to about 3.3%. We may have seen a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact market event occur with respect to Treasuries and the better-than-expected March economic data set.The narrative has changed to one that is Treasury bond supportive. Fixed income markets are discounting lower economic growth and price expectations. Scenarios with a declining growth rate may be increasingly discounted in the Treasury markets. With GDP growth anticipated to tail-off over the next few quarters, sustainable wage growth may not materialize. Meanwhile, supply chain bottlenecks and rising producer prices may negatively impact corporate margins rather than consumer wallets. We elaborate on each of these themes within.Against this backdrop, there are limited economic announcements which could impact the Treasury market over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Japanese investors may find buying US$ denominated bonds attractive after hedging the currency risk. This may be risk asset supportive going forward.  We review this inside.In the bank credit markets, March’s carry trade outperformance continued to unwind as shorter-duration bonds outperformed during the week. All recent higher coupon outperformers experienced large spread declines. Even the Turkish bank credit curve behaved in a manner consistent with other bonds globally, rather than trade at a discount. We identify the winners and losers.In China, while the immediate threat of Credit Armageddon may be lower, the ultimate game plan for China Huarong Asset Management is yet to be known. As such, the market may remain skittish while trading opportunities remain amongst the other asset management companies. Please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/50463/China%20Huarong:%20Contagion%20Creates%20Opportunity.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/SmFJQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China Huarong: Contagion Creates Opportunity</a> for more details.US banks set a high bar for performance by announcing stellar investment banking and progressively improving core banking results last week. Then they signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates later this year by hitting the market for record breaking amounts. Middle East- and Asia-headquartered banks may lead the headlines next week. Amongst major European names, only Credit Suisse is scheduled to provide final Q1 results on Tuesday, 20 April. For our thoughts, please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/50463/Credit%20Suisse:%20Skating%20on%20a%20Thin%20Layer%20of%20Capital.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/rGLd5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Skating on a Thin Layer of Capital</a>.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is repricing for lower growth and lower rates over a longer time-period. This should be risk asset supportive as the US dollar finally weakens. The risk is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.

Executive Summary: The narrative has changed and there is little to stand in the way of further Treasury market strength near term. This should lead to US dollar weakness and may be Emerging Market risk asset supportive. Nonetheless, we suspect that Asia will remain driven by concerns that China is tightening which could constrain investor sentiment in this market.Trading volume-, Treasury issuance- and economic data-risks were no match for short-position unwinding, data reappraisal, and Japanese investor re-entry into the Treasury bond market over the last week. Treasury yields continued their retracement, posting their biggest weekly rally since August. Furthermore, after the worst quarter since 1980, Treasuries have gained around 1% this month, paring 2021 losses to about 3.3%. We may have seen a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-fact market event occur with respect to Treasuries and the better-than-expected March economic data set.The narrative has changed to one that is Treasury bond supportive. Fixed income markets are discounting lower economic growth and price expectations. Scenarios with a declining growth rate may be increasingly discounted in the Treasury markets. With GDP growth anticipated to tail-off over the next few quarters, sustainable wage growth may not materialize. Meanwhile, supply chain bottlenecks and rising producer prices may negatively impact corporate margins rather than consumer wallets. We elaborate on each of these themes within.Against this backdrop, there are limited economic announcements which could impact the Treasury market over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Japanese investors may find buying US$ denominated bonds attractive after hedging the currency risk. This may be risk asset supportive going forward.  We review this inside.In the bank credit markets, March’s carry trade outperformance continued to unwind as shorter-duration bonds outperformed during the week. All recent higher coupon outperformers experienced large spread declines. Even the Turkish bank credit curve behaved in a manner consistent with other bonds globally, rather than trade at a discount. We identify the winners and losers.In China, while the immediate threat of Credit Armageddon may be lower, the ultimate game plan for China Huarong Asset Management is yet to be known. As such, the market may remain skittish while trading opportunities remain amongst the other asset management companies. Please see: China Huarong: Contagion Creates Opportunity for more details.US banks set a high bar for performance by announcing stellar investment banking and progressively improving core banking results last week. Then they signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates later this year by hitting the market for record breaking amounts. Middle East- and Asia-headquartered banks may lead the headlines next week. Amongst major European names, only Credit Suisse is scheduled to provide final Q1 results on Tuesday, 20 April. For our thoughts, please see: Credit Suisse: Skating on a Thin Layer of Capital.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is repricing for lower growth and lower rates over a longer time-period. This should be risk asset supportive as the US dollar finally weakens. The risk is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.  

Bank Credit Weekly: Narrative Change Pushes Carry-Trade Unwind as Treasuries Rally

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$1bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. As per Oliver Wyman’s estimates, NTL had a 16% market share in the vehicle lending market in Thailand, as of 2019. </div><div>NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. It offers motor insurance, compulsory motor insurance, personal accident insurance, cancer insurance, and loan insurance. As of Dec 2020, it had over 730,000 accounts with total outstanding loans of THB51.3bn. In 2020, it generated non-life insurance premium sales of THB4bn. </div><div>Over 2016-20, NTL’s gross loans grew at 25.1% CAGR, averaging 25%+ per annum over 2017-19 before slowing down to 7% YoY growth in 2020. Its total income has grown at 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20. Although, asset quality has taken a hit owing to COVID-19 and Bank of Thailand's induced moratorium. </div><div>
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ngern-tid-lor-pre-ipo-pre-covid-growth-track-record-has-been-very-strong" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID growth track record has been very strong</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ngern-tid-lor-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-playing-catch-up-after-being-left-behind" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Playing Catch up After Being Left Behind</a>.
In this note we’ll talk about valuation and deal dynamics.
</div>

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$1bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. As per Oliver Wyman’s estimates, NTL had a 16% market share in the vehicle lending market in Thailand, as of 2019. NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. It offers motor insurance, compulsory motor insurance, personal accident insurance, cancer insurance, and loan insurance. As of Dec 2020, it had over 730,000 accounts with total outstanding loans of THB51.3bn. In 2020, it generated non-life insurance premium sales of THB4bn. Over 2016-20, NTL’s gross loans grew at 25.1% CAGR, averaging 25%+ per annum over 2017-19 before slowing down to 7% YoY growth in 2020. Its total income has grown at 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20. Although, asset quality has taken a hit owing to COVID-19 and Bank of Thailand's induced moratorium. 
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our earlier note, Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID growth track record has been very strong and Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Playing Catch up After Being Left Behind.
In this note we’ll talk about valuation and deal dynamics.


Ngern Tid Lor IPO - Not Really at a Large Discount but the Overall Sector Has Been Doing Very Well

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$750m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. As per Oliver Wyman’s estimates, NTL had a 16% market share in the vehicle lending market in Thailand, as of 2019. NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. It offers motor insurance, compulsory motor insurance, personal accident insurance, cancer insurance, and loan insurance. As of Dec 2020,  it had over 730,000 accounts with total outstanding loans of THB51.3bn. In 2020, it generated non-life insurance premium sales of THB4bn. Over 2016-20, NTL’s gross loans grew at 25.1% CAGR, averaging 25%+ per annum over 2017-19 before slowing down to 7% YoY growth in 2020. Its total income has grown at 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20.Although, asset quality has taken a hit owing to COVID-19 and Bank of Thailand's induced moratorium.

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$750m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly owned by Bank of Ayudhya and CVC Capital Partners. As per Oliver Wyman’s estimates, NTL had a 16% market share in the vehicle lending market in Thailand, as of 2019. NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. It offers motor insurance, compulsory motor insurance, personal accident insurance, cancer insurance, and loan insurance. As of Dec 2020,  it had over 730,000 accounts with total outstanding loans of THB51.3bn. In 2020, it generated non-life insurance premium sales of THB4bn. Over 2016-20, NTL’s gross loans grew at 25.1% CAGR, averaging 25%+ per annum over 2017-19 before slowing down to 7% YoY growth in 2020. Its total income has grown at 22.5% CAGR, while PAT did better with a CAGR of 29.1% over 2016-20.Although, asset quality has taken a hit owing to COVID-19 and Bank of Thailand's induced moratorium.

Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID Growth Track Record Has Been Very Strong

Executive Summary:  Rapidly rising interest rates present a challenge for credit to generate positive total returns. Unfortunately, the upward sloping sawtooth pattern of rising US interest rates ended the month on an upswing. Credit spreads needed to compress by as much to generate positive total returns. Only a small handful of Asia’s US$-denominated bank bonds (x-Japan) managed to generate positive total returns during the month of March. This was concentrated in a select sweet spot.Long duration, low investment grade rated, and high BB rated bonds led tightening over the month. Lower risk tolerance, as evidenced by the rating preferences, combined with duration desires to drive performance in March, as in February. One differentiating factor between March and February is the concentration amongst Thai- and South Korean-headquartered banks during March; however, these institutions are also the largest issuers of longer duration bank paper in Asia. As such, we see this as more of a duration, than a country story.From a pure credit spread perspective, ignoring movements in the risk-free rate, Asia’s bank bonds had an outstanding month with each of the +100 bonds that we track tightening during the month. Global monetary accommodation is in large part responsible for this spread compression. Credit fundamentals have yet to catch-up. Continued tightening, however, cannot be ruled out as credit tourists crowd-in and markets melt-up. Unfortunately for most, the recent tightening did not exceed the speed with which interest rates rose.Q1 2021 was a tough quarter for real money asset managers. We anticipate that US interest rates will continue to climb higher and may even accelerate their upward trajectory. If the trend is your friend and longer duration bonds continue to outperform, the risk is that of buying a bond which either has a higher level of volatility or is fully priced. With South Korean long-dated Senior Unsecured notes trading just north of 100 basis points (bps), it is hard to imagine these notes continuing to compress faster than interest rates. Asset managers may need to consider more subordinated, higher yielding notes to generate positive total returns over the near term. Investors will likely be pushed towards lower rated Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds in April / May to achieve positive total returns. Security selection may become more important.

Executive Summary:  Rapidly rising interest rates present a challenge for credit to generate positive total returns. Unfortunately, the upward sloping sawtooth pattern of rising US interest rates ended the month on an upswing. Credit spreads needed to compress by as much to generate positive total returns. Only a small handful of Asia’s US$-denominated bank bonds (x-Japan) managed to generate positive total returns during the month of March. This was concentrated in a select sweet spot.Long duration, low investment grade rated, and high BB rated bonds led tightening over the month. Lower risk tolerance, as evidenced by the rating preferences, combined with duration desires to drive performance in March, as in February. One differentiating factor between March and February is the concentration amongst Thai- and South Korean-headquartered banks during March; however, these institutions are also the largest issuers of longer duration bank paper in Asia. As such, we see this as more of a duration, than a country story.From a pure credit spread perspective, ignoring movements in the risk-free rate, Asia’s bank bonds had an outstanding month with each of the +100 bonds that we track tightening during the month. Global monetary accommodation is in large part responsible for this spread compression. Credit fundamentals have yet to catch-up. Continued tightening, however, cannot be ruled out as credit tourists crowd-in and markets melt-up. Unfortunately for most, the recent tightening did not exceed the speed with which interest rates rose.Q1 2021 was a tough quarter for real money asset managers. We anticipate that US interest rates will continue to climb higher and may even accelerate their upward trajectory. If the trend is your friend and longer duration bonds continue to outperform, the risk is that of buying a bond which either has a higher level of volatility or is fully priced. With South Korean long-dated Senior Unsecured notes trading just north of 100 basis points (bps), it is hard to imagine these notes continuing to compress faster than interest rates. Asset managers may need to consider more subordinated, higher yielding notes to generate positive total returns over the near term. Investors will likely be pushed towards lower rated Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds in April / May to achieve positive total returns. Security selection may become more important.

Bank Credit Compass: Positive Total Return Sweet Spot

Executive Summary:  We recommend that investors Overweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/krung-thai-bank-pub-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:298:1" rel="noopener">Krung Thai Bank's (KTBTB)</a> recently issued Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond. Krung Thai’s published credit metrics are on-par with, if not superior to, its Thailand-based peers as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a>. Furthermore, after adjusting for Covid-19 relief exposure, KTBTB has a higher capital buffer and a superior pre-provision earnings ability relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kasikornbank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:293:1" rel="noopener">Kasikornbank (KBank)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tmb-bank-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8090:1" rel="noopener">TMB Bank (TMB TB)</a>. As such, we believe that Krung Thai’s recently issued AT1 note should compress to, if not through, KBank’s bond.Thailand-headquartered banks face both a net profit and a capital buffer test towards determining their ability to make optional distributions, such as dividends, bonuses, and Additional Tier 1 coupons. Unfortunately, Thai-bank AT1 spreads bear no relationship relative to their respective capital buffers. This suggests that other concerns may be driving their respective valuations.We note that loans under COVID-19 relief measures remain subject to an IFRS9 staging standstill under Bank of Thailand regulations until the end of 2021, according to Krung Thai Bank. Given the large amount of relief provided by Thai banks over the last year, and more that may develop in the future, current earnings power and capital buffers may overstate each banks’ ability to make optional distribution payments over time.Therefore, a complete analysis on the fair value of a Thai-bank security should incorporate the capital buffer and pre-provision earnings that may be at risk from Covid-19 relief loans that could go sour.  We undertake this analysis within.Taken together, we conclude that after adjusting for Covid-19 relief exposure, KTBTB has a higher capital buffer and a superior pre-provision earnings ability relative to Kasikornbank and TMB Bank. As such, we believe that Krung Thai’s recently issued AT1 note should compress to, if not through, KBank’s, bond. Issued last week at a spread of T+353, and currently trading at T+ 330, we see at least 30bps of upside remaining for investors in KTBTB’s bond. As such, we recommend that investors Overweight Krung Thai Bank’s 4.4% coupon 2026 callable AT1 note.

Executive Summary:  We recommend that investors Overweight Krung Thai Bank's (KTBTB) recently issued Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bond. Krung Thai’s published credit metrics are on-par with, if not superior to, its Thailand-based peers as well as Standard Chartered (STAN LN). Furthermore, after adjusting for Covid-19 relief exposure, KTBTB has a higher capital buffer and a superior pre-provision earnings ability relative to Kasikornbank (KBank) and TMB Bank (TMB TB). As such, we believe that Krung Thai’s recently issued AT1 note should compress to, if not through, KBank’s bond.Thailand-headquartered banks face both a net profit and a capital buffer test towards determining their ability to make optional distributions, such as dividends, bonuses, and Additional Tier 1 coupons. Unfortunately, Thai-bank AT1 spreads bear no relationship relative to their respective capital buffers. This suggests that other concerns may be driving their respective valuations.We note that loans under COVID-19 relief measures remain subject to an IFRS9 staging standstill under Bank of Thailand regulations until the end of 2021, according to Krung Thai Bank. Given the large amount of relief provided by Thai banks over the last year, and more that may develop in the future, current earnings power and capital buffers may overstate each banks’ ability to make optional distribution payments over time.Therefore, a complete analysis on the fair value of a Thai-bank security should incorporate the capital buffer and pre-provision earnings that may be at risk from Covid-19 relief loans that could go sour.  We undertake this analysis within.Taken together, we conclude that after adjusting for Covid-19 relief exposure, KTBTB has a higher capital buffer and a superior pre-provision earnings ability relative to Kasikornbank and TMB Bank. As such, we believe that Krung Thai’s recently issued AT1 note should compress to, if not through, KBank’s, bond. Issued last week at a spread of T+353, and currently trading at T+ 330, we see at least 30bps of upside remaining for investors in KTBTB’s bond. As such, we recommend that investors Overweight Krung Thai Bank’s 4.4% coupon 2026 callable AT1 note.   

Thailand

Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited provides various banking and financial services including commercial, consumer, credit card, and mortgage lending, international trade financing, investment banking, and securities services.

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Bangkok Bank Public (BBL TB)

Bank Credit Weekly: Narrative Change Pushes Carry-Trade Unwind as Treasuries Rally

The narrative has changed. There is little to stand in the way of further Treasury market strength near term. This should lead to US$ weakness and...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Ngern Tid Lor IPO - Not Really at a Large Discount but the Overall Sector Has Been Doing Very Well

Ngern Tid Lor aims to raise around US$1bn via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Thailand IPO. Prior to listing, it was jointly...

Sumeet Singh

Ngern Tid Lor Pre-IPO - Pre-COVID Growth Track Record Has Been Very Strong

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, aims to raise around US$750m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares...

Sumeet Singh

Bank Credit Compass: Positive Total Return Sweet Spot

The sweet spot for positive total returns seems to be in long duration, low investment grade, and high BB rated bonds. This was concentrated in...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Krung Thai Bank: Overweight This AT1 Gem

Krung Thai offers superior Covid-19 adjusted metrics. Issued at a discount to fair value, its recently issued AT1 bond is a gem for investors.

Hank Calenti, CFA

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