Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We switch our rating to Neutral with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt136.50 (previously Outperform; FV: Bt145.00), based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 10.0% (previously 9.7%).</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Neutral as the stock price has increased by 11% over the past three months, compared to the SET Index, which has declined by 9%.</li><li>Thus, the tactical outlook has been switched to very limited upside from the previous neutral outlook.</li></ul>

We switch our rating to Neutral with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt136.50 (previously Outperform; FV: Bt145.00), based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 10.0% (previously 9.7%).We downgrade our rating to Neutral as the stock price has increased by 11% over the past three months, compared to the SET Index, which has declined by 9%.Thus, the tactical outlook has been switched to very limited upside from the previous neutral outlook.

SCB X - Provisions Expected to Decline in 2025E

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET tumbled back to the 1,260-point support level, moving in line with other Asian bourses after a sharp drop in DELTA, alongside declines in petroleum, energy, hospital, and commerce stocks.</li><li>At least the index has pulled back to the 1,260–1,250 support zone and showed attempts to hold above this level or rebound.</li><li>Therefore, we recommend buying at support, as the index is expected to stage a technical rebound.</li></ul>

The SET tumbled back to the 1,260-point support level, moving in line with other Asian bourses after a sharp drop in DELTA, alongside declines in petroleum, energy, hospital, and commerce stocks.At least the index has pulled back to the 1,260–1,250 support zone and showed attempts to hold above this level or rebound.Therefore, we recommend buying at support, as the index is expected to stage a technical rebound.

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 17, 2025

<ul><li>The US labor market continues to show signs of softening.</li><li>Crude oil prices rose by around 1% this morning after the US announced a blockade on oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.</li><li>The Finance Minister said after discussions with the Election Commission (EC) that the government cannot proceed with the Khon La Khrueng Plus Phase 2 scheme, nor other economic stimulus measures, as the caretaker cabinet is constitutionally prohibited from committing budgetary spending.</li></ul>

The US labor market continues to show signs of softening.Crude oil prices rose by around 1% this morning after the US announced a blockade on oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.The Finance Minister said after discussions with the Election Commission (EC) that the government cannot proceed with the Khon La Khrueng Plus Phase 2 scheme, nor other economic stimulus measures, as the caretaker cabinet is constitutionally prohibited from committing budgetary spending.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 17, 2025

<ul><li>The US 10Y bond yield edged down slightly from 4.19% to 4.18% after the New York Fed President commented that the US economy is likely to continue expanding in 2026, while inflation is expected to slow from 3% this year to 2.5% and 2.0% in 2026–27, respectively, though he remained cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 2026.</li><li>The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has instructed financial institutions to tighten scrutiny over forward foreign-exchange selling transactions by gold traders, which could increase baht volatility.</li><li>The PTT group confirmed that it has not exported oil to Cambodia, in line with its policy to suspend exports since June 2025, which has been strictly adhered to throughout the ongoing situation.</li></ul>

The US 10Y bond yield edged down slightly from 4.19% to 4.18% after the New York Fed President commented that the US economy is likely to continue expanding in 2026, while inflation is expected to slow from 3% this year to 2.5% and 2.0% in 2026–27, respectively, though he remained cautious ahead of the FOMC meeting on January 2026.The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has instructed financial institutions to tighten scrutiny over forward foreign-exchange selling transactions by gold traders, which could increase baht volatility.The PTT group confirmed that it has not exported oil to Cambodia, in line with its policy to suspend exports since June 2025, which has been strictly adhered to throughout the ongoing situation.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 16, 2025

<ul><li>If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.</li><li>We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.</li><li>The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.</li></ul>

If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

Thailand

SCB X Public Company Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts, loans, cards, deposits, insurance, investment, payment, digital banking, and other related services. SCB X serves customers worldwide.

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Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)

SCB X - Provisions Expected to Decline in 2025E

We switch our rating to Neutral with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt136.50 (previously Outperform; FV: Bt145.00), based on the earnings yield...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Technical Eng. December 17, 2025

The SET tumbled back to the 1,260-point support level, moving in line with other Asian bourses after a sharp drop in DELTA, alongside declines in...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 17, 2025

Crude oil prices rose by around 1% this morning after the US announced a blockade on oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 16, 2025

The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has instructed financial institutions to tighten scrutiny over forward foreign-exchange selling transactions by gold...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

Krungthai XSpring

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