Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>LSEG’s share price has performed poorly in 2025 due to AI disruption concerns relating to its data and analytics business; we believe LSEG can fend off this risk of disruption</li>
<li>In our view, LSEG’s data and analytics segment harbours a defensive moat shielding it from potential disrupters; we believe LSEG shares are deep value relative to its DM exchange peers</li>
<li>We keep our buy on flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise – despite FMX - in its trading and post-trading operations dedicated to interest rates and other products</li>
</ul>


LSEG’s share price has performed poorly in 2025 due to AI disruption concerns relating to its data and analytics business; we believe LSEG can fend off this risk of disruption
In our view, LSEG’s data and analytics segment harbours a defensive moat shielding it from potential disrupters; we believe LSEG shares are deep value relative to its DM exchange peers
We keep our buy on flow monster CME Group for its dominant franchise – despite FMX - in its trading and post-trading operations dedicated to interest rates and other products


Developed Market (DM) Exchanges – 2026 High Conviction Calls

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open to selling at the right price.</li>
<li>Since listing, Allfunds' total return has been -59%, driven by interest rate hikes, major distributors shifting to low-risk assets, stock overhang from top shareholders, and low share liquidity.</li>
<li>ChatGPTAllfunds' forward P/E of 12.9x (vs. peers at 18.6x) and 9.5% FCF yield undervalue its strong business model, momentum, market share gains, robust cash conversion, and solid balance sheet.</li>
</ul>


Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open to selling at the right price.
Since listing, Allfunds' total return has been -59%, driven by interest rate hikes, major distributors shifting to low-risk assets, stock overhang from top shareholders, and low share liquidity.
ChatGPTAllfunds' forward P/E of 12.9x (vs. peers at 18.6x) and 9.5% FCF yield undervalue its strong business model, momentum, market share gains, robust cash conversion, and solid balance sheet.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks</li>
<li>We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight</li>
</ul>


We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int'l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&amp;P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
The S&amp;P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)</li>
<li>We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.</li>
<li>Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Netherlands

Euronext NV is a pan-European stock exchange.  It resulted from the merger of the exchanges of Amsterdam, Brussels, Lisbon, and Paris.  Euronext is a fully integrated cross-border single currency stock, derivatives, and commodities market.

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Euronext NV (ENX FP)

Developed Market (DM) Exchanges – 2026 High Conviction Calls

LSEG's share price hit due to AI disruption fears, but its data and analytics segment has a defensive moat. CME Group remains a buy for its...

Victor Galliano

Misunderstood Takeover Target

Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Developed Market (DM) Exchanges – 2026 High Conviction Calls

​LSEG's share price hit due to AI disruption fears, but its data and analytics segment has a defensive moat. CME Group remains a buy for its...

Victor Galliano

Misunderstood Takeover Target

Allfunds Group, a global WealthTech firm born in Spain, attracts market interest, but no firm offers yet. Its top two shareholders (48.1%) are open...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. $SPX for a Downgrade to Market Weight. $ACWI and $SPX likely bottoming here at 200-day MAs. Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

LSEG's share price hit due to AI disruption fears, but its data and analytics segment has a defensive moat. CME Group remains a buy for its...