Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The September 2026 index review results for the ES50 index were announced yesterday after market close.</li>
<li>There will be two ADDs and two DELs for the index. This is in line with our expectations.</li>
<li>The Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of trading on Friday 18 September 2026. We see US$5bn+ in one-way flow.</li>
</ul>


The September 2026 index review results for the ES50 index were announced yesterday after market close.
There will be two ADDs and two DELs for the index. This is in line with our expectations.
The Inclusion/Exclusion events will take place at the close of trading on Friday 18 September 2026. We see US$5bn+ in one-way flow.


Quiddity ES50 Sep26 Results: All Expected ADDs/DELs Correct; Engie + Nokia IN; VWagen + Wolters OUT

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.</li>
<li>With the base date nearly two weeks away, we currently see 2 ADDs and 2 DELs, but Nokia's price slide has two names circling to take its place.</li>
<li>We currently expect a one-way trade of US$4.5bn on 18th September 2026. However, the 10% cap on ASML could swing the one-way flow. </li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly tracked European indices. The annual review takes place in September, with index weights rebalanced every quarter.
With the base date nearly two weeks away, we currently see 2 ADDs and 2 DELs, but Nokia's price slide has two names circling to take its place.
We currently expect a one-way trade of US$4.5bn on 18th September 2026. However, the 10% cap on ASML could swing the one-way flow. 


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: 2 ADDs and 2 DELs Likely; Tight Race for the Second ADD

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

iShares Global Healthcare ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.</li>
<li>MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).</li>
<li>This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe</li>
</ul>


As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe


Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Société Générale and Engie lead our current addition screen, while Nokia/E.ON remains a live race: just 1.9% relative performance separates the two ahead of the 31 August cut-off.</li>
<li>The flow numbers favour the addition side: estimated ETF buying reaches ~7x ADV for Engie and 6.3x for E.ON, compared with 2–3x ADV selling for the main deletion candidates.</li>
<li>We favour the addition side: Engie offers the strongest prospective flow/liquidity setup, while E.ON becomes particularly interesting if it overtakes Nokia; we are more cautious on pre-positioning deletion shorts.</li>
</ul>


Société Générale and Engie lead our current addition screen, while Nokia/E.ON remains a live race: just 1.9% relative performance separates the two ahead of the 31 August cut-off.
The flow numbers favour the addition side: estimated ETF buying reaches ~7x ADV for Engie and 6.3x for E.ON, compared with 2–3x ADV selling for the main deletion candidates.
We favour the addition side: Engie offers the strongest prospective flow/liquidity setup, while E.ON becomes particularly interesting if it overtakes Nokia; we are more cautious on pre-positioning deletion shorts.


EURO STOXX 50: Trading the September Rebalance

Germany

E.ON is one of Europe's largest operators of energy networks and energy infrastructure and a provider of innovative customer solutions for some 51 million customers. The company's operations are energy networks and customer solutions.

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E.ON (EOAN GR)

Quiddity ES50 Sep26 Results: All Expected ADDs/DELs Correct; Engie + Nokia IN; VWagen + Wolters OUT

The ES50 will see two BIG ADDs and two normal DELs in its annual review in September 2026. We expect a one-way flow of US$5bn+ driven mostly by...

Afridi Reyal

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep26: 2 ADDs and 2 DELs Likely; Tight Race for the Second ADD

The base date for the annual September 2026 review is today (31 August 2026). We still expect two ADDs and two DELs. EOAN and Société Générale are...

Afridi Reyal

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

We have recommended shifting to defensives throughout Feb/March due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on $ACWI. We highlight buys within...

Vermilion Research

EURO STOXX 50: Trading the September Rebalance

The EURO STOXX 50 September review is creating increasingly actionable index trades. Our pro-forma ranking and flow model identifies where the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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