FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

After a volatile start to the year that has involved a significant downward revision to global growth expectations, we try to take stock of the major global market developments to attempt to develop a sense of the prevailing themes in the market.  A key driver of global developments has been the price of oil; it made two almost identical lows on 20 Jan and 11 Feb.  Through this phase of the year, global market uncertainty and volatility was at its highest in some years, sending many in the market looking for risk havens.  In this environment JPY and gold have been strong performers.The second phase of the fall in oil prices from 29-Jan to 11-Feb was far more depressing for developed market assets.  A key contributing factor was a deep fall in financial equites.  In hindsight, we can see now that emerging market equities, commodity producer equites, including energy stocks, and many emerging market currencies were proving quite resilient during this second phase of intense risk aversion, many of them strengthening through this period.After a double bottom the market appears more confident that the most recent rise in oil prices from the 11-Feb low is sustainable. The stronger oil price has reinforced the rebound in EM and commodity producer assets that were already appearing more inclined to recover from the earlier low in oil prices. The persistent weakness in the USD against risk havens (JPY, EUR and Gold) is harder to explain during the solid rebound in global asset prices in recent weeks and recovery in US yields, amidst higher US inflation and strong US employment data.  But the market has lost confidence and visibility on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and Europe, fears they are running out of policy options, and appears more assured that Fed policy will adopt a more growth friendly demeanor.  We doubt broad-USD weakness will persist but the onus appears to be on the US data to confirm it is on a sustainable growth path and generating higher inflation.

After a volatile start to the year that has involved a significant downward revision to global growth expectations, we try to take stock of the major global market developments to attempt to develop a sense of the prevailing themes in the market.  A key driver of global developments has been the price of oil; it made two almost identical lows on 20 Jan and 11 Feb.  Through this phase of the year, global market uncertainty and volatility was at its highest in some years, sending many in the market looking for risk havens.  In this environment JPY and gold have been strong performers.The second phase of the fall in oil prices from 29-Jan to 11-Feb was far more depressing for developed market assets.  A key contributing factor was a deep fall in financial equites.  In hindsight, we can see now that emerging market equities, commodity producer equites, including energy stocks, and many emerging market currencies were proving quite resilient during this second phase of intense risk aversion, many of them strengthening through this period.After a double bottom the market appears more confident that the most recent rise in oil prices from the 11-Feb low is sustainable. The stronger oil price has reinforced the rebound in EM and commodity producer assets that were already appearing more inclined to recover from the earlier low in oil prices. The persistent weakness in the USD against risk havens (JPY, EUR and Gold) is harder to explain during the solid rebound in global asset prices in recent weeks and recovery in US yields, amidst higher US inflation and strong US employment data.  But the market has lost confidence and visibility on the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and Europe, fears they are running out of policy options, and appears more assured that Fed policy will adopt a more growth friendly demeanor.  We doubt broad-USD weakness will persist but the onus appears to be on the US data to confirm it is on a sustainable growth path and generating higher inflation.

AmpGFX - Taking Stock on a Confusing Start to the Year

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

Germany

Evonik Industries AG manufactures specialty chemicals. The Company offers different products in the field of consumer goods, animal nutrition, and pharmaceuticals.

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