Index Rebalance and Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Afridi Reyal

Index Rebalance and Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the December 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we don't expect any changes in the DAX or MDAX indices, but two MDAX names are close to the border for inclusion in the DAX.</li>
<li>Only the Fast Entry/Exit rules apply for the December rebalance, so names face stricter requirements to trigger index changes than in March and September, when Regular Entry/Exit rules also apply.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the December 2026 index rebal event.
Currently, we don't expect any changes in the DAX or MDAX indices, but two MDAX names are close to the border for inclusion in the DAX.
Only the Fast Entry/Exit rules apply for the December rebalance, so names face stricter requirements to trigger index changes than in March and September, when Regular Entry/Exit rules also apply.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Dec 26: A Few Names Are Close to the Border

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they <em>could</em> roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Sma Solar Technology Ag / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we don't see any changes for DAX or MDAX. But small price swings could change our expectations for both indices.</li>
<li>MDAX member HugoBoss is expected to fall in the rankings (again) due to the takeover effort by Frasier.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the September 2026 index rebal event.
Currently, we don't see any changes for DAX or MDAX. But small price swings could change our expectations for both indices.
MDAX member HugoBoss is expected to fall in the rankings (again) due to the takeover effort by Frasier.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Sep 26: Reference Period Started; Few Names Close to the Border

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the September 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>Currently, we see one change for DAX and no changes for MDAX in September 2026.</li>
<li>The September rebal allows both Fast Entry/Exit and Regular Entry/Exit changes, creating interesting scenarios for borderline names. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX and MDAX indices ahead of the September 2026 index rebal event.
Currently, we see one change for DAX and no changes for MDAX in September 2026.
The September rebal allows both Fast Entry/Exit and Regular Entry/Exit changes, creating interesting scenarios for borderline names. 


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Sep 26: One DAX Change Likely; Reference Period Starting Soon

Germany

Scout24 AG is an operator of digital classifieds platforms. The Company specializes in the real estate and automotive sectors in Germany and other selected European countries.

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Scout24 AG (G24 GR)

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Dec 26: A Few Names Are Close to the Border

No changes are expected in DAX or MDAX for December 2026, but thyssenkrupp and Lufthansa are close enough that a strong outperformance could...

Afridi Reyal

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Sep 26: Reference Period Started; Few Names Close to the Border

Lufthansa needs to recover its ranking in the DAX to become an expected ADD. We see HugoBoss becoming the leading potential DEL for MDAX due to the...

Afridi Reyal

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Sep 26: One DAX Change Likely; Reference Period Starting Soon

Lufthansa is an expected DAX ADD for September 2026, supported by Fast Entry conditions. If rankings shift, a Regular Entry path also opens up for...

Afridi Reyal

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