Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.</li>
<li>The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024</li>
<li>We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates</li>
</ul>


Asymmetric return opportunity in a short position in Japan - downside vs upside potential is skewed to the downside.
The weak JPY hasn’t helped the overall market and rising risk of a reversal similar to August 2024
We look at some sectors and stocks that are good short candidates


Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,193m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec, Nintendo, Japan Airport Terminal, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Sep 11th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD30,193m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec, Nintendo, Japan Airport Terminal, Tokyo Electron, Disco, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 11th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years </li>
<li>Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%</li>
<li>MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales</li>
</ul>


Of the nearly 200 financials in Japan, on average shares outstanding are up 3% over the past several years 
Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, and Yamaguchi Financial are at the extreme opposite end with shares outstanding at -22%
MS&amp;AD features well ranking #11 of financials in our sample, with shares outstanding at -7%, adding well to its commitment on dividends, cross-shareholdings sales


Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

<ul>
<li>Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey</li>
<li>The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending</li>
<li>With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta</li>
</ul>


Japan's banks can benefit from continued strong loan demand, with signals from the Tankan Survey and from the loan officer survey
The story for Japan's banks is not only about unwinding cross shareholdings and rising interest rates, but it's also about core lending
With bettering loan volume, with more demand and inclination to lend, banks can see benign credit metrics, further supporting profit delta


Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. </li>
<li>Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.</li>
<li>Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.</li>
</ul>


A year after Couche-Tard withdrew its bid, Seven &amp; I is still searching for new growth, leading to some speculation of closer ties with Familymart. 
Over the summer, it pulled out of an attempt to expand in Europe, and watched franchisee profits fall for a second year.
Having sold 6.6% of itself to SoftBank, PayPay and Sumitomo Mitsui Card, it is now hoping to buy a retail media future. It won't be enough.


Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. manages financial operations for its subsidiaries. The Company provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

Tactical Trading - Time to Sell Japan. Again.

It's the perfect storm for the Japanese market. Tariffs, JPY, rising rates and inflation, with growth weakening. The 2,800 level on Topix has been...

Rikki Malik

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Sep 11th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Advantest, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Lintec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Advantest (6857 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Financials - Buybacks Strongest at Japan Post Insurance, Japan Post Holdings, Yamaguchi

Japan Post Bank in spotlight now, and new data shows improving credit growth and demand, from Tankan Survey and from loan officer survey.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan's Banks - Lending Is Strong, Loan Officer Survey Suggests More, Credit Costs Can Be Low

Japan's banks are seeing good loan volume and diffusion index on Tankan Survey and loan officer survey suggests there is more to come. Selling...

Daniel Tabbush

Seven & I: Where Is the Growth?

Seven & I is showing worrying signs of low morale in recent quarters. It has lost out in a bid for a major base in Poland to ACT and back home,...

Michael Causton

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