Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan’s defence renaissance is underway, driven by structural budget growth toward 2%+ of GDP.</li>
<li>Multi-Decade tailwinds in missiles, cyber, and naval systems will reshape the domestic defence industry.</li>
<li>Investors should balance national champions with mid-cap leverage plays to capture both visibility and alpha.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s defence renaissance is underway, driven by structural budget growth toward 2%+ of GDP.
Multi-Decade tailwinds in missiles, cyber, and naval systems will reshape the domestic defence industry.
Investors should balance national champions with mid-cap leverage plays to capture both visibility and alpha.


Japan Defence Supercycle: Multi-Decade Tailwinds, Near-Term Catalysts

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> announced a placement of 85.37m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 12.8m shares.</li>
<li>There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the number of shares offered is a very large percentage of real float of the stock.</li>
<li>A price drop of 20% or more puts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> at risk of deletion from a global index and could lead to a further price drop.</li>
</ul>


Overnight, Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) announced a placement of 85.37m shares to unwind crossholdings and improve corporate value. There is an overallotment option for another 12.8m shares.
There will be limited passive buying in the short-term and the number of shares offered is a very large percentage of real float of the stock.
A price drop of 20% or more puts Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) at risk of deletion from a global index and could lead to a further price drop.


Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hulic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:388:1" rel="noopener">Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.4 million shares (98.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$800 million (US$920 million including overallotment).</li>
<li>Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering around all-time highs.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 December (likely 10 December).</li>
</ul>



Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 85.4 million shares (98.2 million including overallotment), worth around US$800 million (US$920 million including overallotment).
Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering around all-time highs.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 10 and 12 December (likely 10 December).


Hulic (3033 JP): A US$800 Million Secondary Offering

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei announced its Annual Nikkei 225 Average Review on 5 September. It was 3 OUT 3 IN as expected. Then they added <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shizuoka-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4437:1" rel="noopener">Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP)</a> to the mix. </li>
<li>ShizuGin will form a holding company, so out it goes on Wednesday. NIDEC (6594) goes in. Then SMC (6273) and (7741) replace Unitika (3103) and Oki Electric (6703) Friday.</li>
<li>Then ShizuGin goes back in Monday, and Maruha Nichiro (1333) is deleted. The "big trade" here? The ¥550bn+ funding trade. But the change in ADDs' Real World Float is Real.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei announced its Annual Nikkei 225 Average Review on 5 September. It was 3 OUT 3 IN as expected. Then they added Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP) to the mix. 
ShizuGin will form a holding company, so out it goes on Wednesday. NIDEC (6594) goes in. Then SMC (6273) and (7741) replace Unitika (3103) and Oki Electric (6703) Friday.
Then ShizuGin goes back in Monday, and Maruha Nichiro (1333) is deleted. The "big trade" here? The ¥550bn+ funding trade. But the change in ADDs' Real World Float is Real.


Two Days Left Til Nikkei 225 Juggled Review Starts

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a>'s Pan Shiyi is resigning to focus on "philanthropic pursuits". That sounds like "donations", which can be sourced from the Pans selling their stake in SOHO.</li>
<li>In the Nikkei 225 Annual Review, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a> are IN. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unitika-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7669:1" rel="noopener">Unitika (3103 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha (1333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oki-electric-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2181:1" rel="noopener">Oki Electric (6703 JP)</a> are OUT.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a> confirms its intention to float a portion of its Porsche sports-car brand within weeks, in what is expected to be one of Germany’s largest-ever public debuts.</li>
</ul>



Soho China (410 HK)'s Pan Shiyi is resigning to focus on "philanthropic pursuits". That sounds like "donations", which can be sourced from the Pans selling their stake in SOHO.
In the Nikkei 225 Annual Review, Nidec (6594 JP), SMC (6273 JP), Hoya (7741 JP) are IN. Unitika (3103 JP), Maruha (1333 JP), and Oki Electric (6703 JP) are OUT.

Volkswagen (VOW GR) confirms its intention to float a portion of its Porsche sports-car brand within weeks, in what is expected to be one of Germany’s largest-ever public debuts.


Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

Japan

Oki Electric Industry Company, Limited, develops, produces, and sells a broad range of communication and information related equipment.  The Company's products include personal computers (PCs), PC peripheral equipment, and electronic devices such as semiconductors and automated teller machines (ATMs). Oki Electric Industry also provides installation and maintenance services.

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Oki Electric Industry (6703 JP)

Japan Defence Supercycle: Multi-Decade Tailwinds, Near-Term Catalysts

Japan's defense industry is experiencing a renaissance with increased budget allocation, leading to opportunities for investors in national...

Rahul Jain

Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another

The secondary offering in Hulic is US$793m and represents 43x ADV and 37% of real float. A large price drops raises risk of deletion from a global...

Brian Freitas

Hulic (3033 JP): A US$800 Million Secondary Offering

Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering...

Arun George

Two Days Left Til Nikkei 225 Juggled Review Starts

The Nikkei 225 Rebal starts Wednesday, skips Thurs, then trades Friday and Monday. There is a large net buy on three ADDs and ¥560bn of funding....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Defence Supercycle: Multi-Decade Tailwinds, Near-Term Catalysts

​Japan's defense industry is experiencing a renaissance with increased budget allocation, leading to opportunities for investors in national...

Rahul Jain

Hulic Co (3003 JP) Placement: One Big Price Drop Could Lead to Another

The secondary offering in Hulic is US$793m and represents 43x ADV and 37% of real float. A large price drops raises risk of deletion from a global...

Brian Freitas

Hulic (3033 JP): A US$800 Million Secondary Offering

Unlike the 2021 offer, this is a pure secondary offering. It is smaller in terms of outstanding shares and 1-year ADV. The shares are hovering...

Arun George

Two Days Left Til Nikkei 225 Juggled Review Starts

The Nikkei 225 Rebal starts Wednesday, skips Thurs, then trades Friday and Monday. There is a large net buy on three ADDs and ¥560bn of funding....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japan's defense industry is experiencing a renaissance with increased budget allocation, leading to opportunities for investors in national...