Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.</li>
<li>The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.</li>
</ul>


A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.


Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) - No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)</li>
<li>We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.</li>
<li>Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GB200 NVL shipments expected to increase as KYEC boosts capital expenditure, impacting notebook shipments in November 2024.</li><li>Taiwan wafer foundry industry developments in 4Q 2024 to be discussed at TSMC investor meeting, focusing on company outlook and new US tariff policies.</li><li>South Korea's acceleration of Yongin semiconductor complex aims to establish global chip leadership, attracting key industry players amidst global semiconductor shifts and US-China chip sector investigation; Taiwan targets AI growth with SEMI's Indian Semiconductor Academy plan.</li></ul>

GB200 NVL shipments expected to increase as KYEC boosts capital expenditure, impacting notebook shipments in November 2024.Taiwan wafer foundry industry developments in 4Q 2024 to be discussed at TSMC investor meeting, focusing on company outlook and new US tariff policies.South Korea's acceleration of Yongin semiconductor complex aims to establish global chip leadership, attracting key industry players amidst global semiconductor shifts and US-China chip sector investigation; Taiwan targets AI growth with SEMI's Indian Semiconductor Academy plan.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-Dec-2024): GB200 NVL shipments to rise with KYEC's capex boost.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.</li>
<li>The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.</li>
<li>We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.</li>
</ul>


The Sanrio (8136 JP) placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.
The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.
We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.


Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging</li>
<li>In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios</li>
<li>CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments</li>
</ul>


GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Bank of Baroda are buys due to deep value with positive returns catalysts; the sell on premium-valued Nubank is due to fundamental return headwinds emerging
In the Japanese banks we identify Mizuho and Resona as key beneficiaries of higher benchmark rates going forward, alongside very attractive valuations and supported by strategic share portfolios
CME Group is our 2025 pick in global exchanges, as a flow monster with a very strong competitive position; PagSeguro is the deep value, contrarian pick in payments


EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) - No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

A group of 7 holders are selling US$916m of stock at a 5-7% discount to last. That is 3.3% of shares out and 12.4x ADV. There is no passive buying...

Brian Freitas

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-Dec-2024): GB200 NVL shipments to rise with KYEC's capex boost.

November 2024 sees increasing GB200 NVL notebook shipments as Taiwan wafer foundry industry develops, TSMC investor meeting discusses new US tariff...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

Sanrio is now trading 21% higher than the placement price and has outperformed the TOPIX handily. The stock is very close to levels where it could...

Brian Freitas

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) - No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

A group of 7 holders are selling US$916m of stock at a 5-7% discount to last. That is 3.3% of shares out and 12.4x ADV. There is no passive buying...

Brian Freitas

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (31-Dec-2024): GB200 NVL shipments to rise with KYEC's capex boost.

November 2024 sees increasing GB200 NVL notebook shipments as Taiwan wafer foundry industry develops, TSMC investor meeting discusses new US tariff...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

Sanrio is now trading 21% higher than the placement price and has outperformed the TOPIX handily. The stock is very close to levels where it could...

Brian Freitas

EM and DM Financials - 2025 High Conviction Ideas

​Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...

Victor Galliano

Buy GEM banks Bradesco, Hana and Baroda, sell Nubank due to return headwinds. Japanese banks Mizuho and Resona benefit from higher benchmark...