Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mizuho's current tax expenses can see normalization that restores profitability by June quarter</li>
<li>Yield curve control relief coming at a time of tax normalization, can be significant to profit</li>
<li>Credit costs have moved higher, but the magnitude may wane, given NPL distribution</li>
</ul>


Mizuho's current tax expenses can see normalization that restores profitability by June quarter
Yield curve control relief coming at a time of tax normalization, can be significant to profit
Credit costs have moved higher, but the magnitude may wane, given NPL distribution


Mizuho - Tax Rate Normalization, Yield Curve Control Relief, Can Mean Profit Surge

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Rakuten Securities / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> (80.01%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> (19.99%) are its shareholders.  </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/rakuten-securities-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108460" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on rapidly slowing operating revenue and commissions growth, lowest per-account monetisation rates vs peers and mid-tier profitability. </li>
</ul>



Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. Rakuten Group (4755 JP) (80.01%) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) (19.99%) are its shareholders.  
In Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on rapidly slowing operating revenue and commissions growth, lowest per-account monetisation rates vs peers and mid-tier profitability. 


<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tryt-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39870:1" rel="noopener">Tryt Inc (9164 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebixcash" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36390:1" rel="noopener">EbixCash (EBIXC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)</a>'s Cainiao &amp; Cloud Intelligence Group IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Tryt Inc (9164 JP), Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), EbixCash (EBIXC IN), Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK), Alibaba (ADR) (BABA US)'s Cainiao &amp; Cloud Intelligence Group IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - 111 Inc (YI US), Healius (HLS AU), Invocare Ltd (IVC AU), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU). 


Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jul) - Rakuten Securities, Tryt, EbixCash, Lalatech, 111, Newcrest, Origin

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-securities-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39933:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP)</a>, a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35638:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Bank (5838 JP)</a> (80.01%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> (19.99%) are its shareholders.   </li>
<li>Rakuten Securities has grown its business by pursuing a low-cost, high-volume strategy. It has the largest number of non-consolidated securities accounts among Japanese securities companies.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on rapid customer growth, low-cost fees, market share gains, synergies with the Rakuten ecosystem and improving profitability trends.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten Securities (RAKUSEC JP), a leading Japanese online brokerage, seeks to raise US$500 million. Rakuten Bank (5838 JP) (80.01%) and Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) (19.99%) are its shareholders.   
Rakuten Securities has grown its business by pursuing a low-cost, high-volume strategy. It has the largest number of non-consolidated securities accounts among Japanese securities companies.
The key elements of the bull case rest on rapid customer growth, low-cost fees, market share gains, synergies with the Rakuten ecosystem and improving profitability trends.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Back to Equity Declines as Fed Minutes indicate  more hikes coming;  Yield Rise across the curve; SPX -0.2% with Cyclicals hit hardest; New Car Sales up Again
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7;  RENGO confirms largest wage Hikes in 3 decades;  Rakuten Securites IPO=¥100bn? is it enough for parent?; Big Buyback from Leopalace(8848)
NUGGET.  Nintendo Switch Sales still has more to run ? it would seems so -as IP is driving sales to new records in its 7th YEAR !


Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Mizuho - Tax Rate Normalization, Yield Curve Control Relief, Can Mean Profit Surge

A normalization of current tax expenses, can completely restore profit, and where this occurs with YCC relief, the profit impact can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on rapidly slowing operating revenue and commissions growth, lowest per-account monetisation rates vs peers...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (23 Jul) - Rakuten Securities, Tryt, EbixCash, Lalatech, 111, Newcrest, Origin

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (111, Healius, InvoCare, Newcrest, Origin Energy) and ECM (Rakuten Securities, Tryt,...

Arun George

Rakuten Securities IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on rapid customer growth, low-cost fees, market share gains, synergies with the Rakuten ecosystem and...

Arun George

Ohayo Japan| Fed to Hike, Yields Rise, Stocks Drop; NUGGET: NINTENDO SWITCH-More Gas in the Engine?

US back to Declines as Feb Minutes indicate Hikes ahead; NKY Futs -0.7% vs Cash; USDJPY 144.7; RENGO confirms largest wage Hike in 3 decades - but...

Mark Chadwick

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