Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The mega banks in Japan are seeing non-performing loans (NPLs) rising from foreign offices, not from domestic operations. The impact is a divergent trend for their credit costs as a percentage of operating profit compared with peer domestic banks.  With worsening machinery order data and real GDP growth, the risk is that mega banks now begin to feel pressure from domestic lending too.</p><p>Average credit costs as a percentage of operating profit for 75 of Japan’s listed banks have declined steadily…</p>

The mega banks in Japan are seeing non-performing loans (NPLs) rising from foreign offices, not from domestic operations. The impact is a divergent trend for their credit costs as a percentage of operating profit compared with peer domestic banks.  With worsening machinery order data and real GDP growth, the risk is that mega banks now begin to feel pressure from domestic lending too.Average credit costs as a percentage of operating profit for 75 of Japan’s listed banks have declined steadily…

Diverging Credit Quality to Worsen at Mega Banks Vs. Peer Banks?

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

<h2>A hidden gem in OLED sphere</h2><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1446" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1446">JL Warren Capital</a> gives us an interesting OLED stock to watch in the long-term. This company is called <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14297" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14297:1">Nissha Printing Co Ltd (7915 JP)</a>, which is the newly selected 3D touch sensor sole supplier for the upcoming iPhone 8 OLED model. JL Warren believes the barrier to entry in 3D touch sensor isn't being appreciated properly by the capital markets. Furthermore, there is a buying opportunity from a valuation perspective. The current valuation of Nissha stock of only 7x…</p>

A hidden gem in OLED sphereJL Warren Capital gives us an interesting OLED stock to watch in the long-term. This company is called Nissha Printing Co Ltd (7915 JP), which is the newly selected 3D touch sensor sole supplier for the upcoming iPhone 8 OLED model. JL Warren believes the barrier to entry in 3D touch sensor isn't being appreciated properly by the capital markets. Furthermore, there is a buying opportunity from a valuation perspective. The current valuation of Nissha stock of only 7x…

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma: Lineage, Moonjaeinnomics, Toshiba and 3D Touch Sensor

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Loan impairment costs are becoming less benign and more normal, for <strong>Mizuho Financial Group (8411)</strong>, and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Funding costs are increasing at an unprecedented rate, where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to offer negative interest rates on excess deposits at the central bank. The result is an ROA for Mizuho at closer to its normal low levels and the lowest it’s seen in nearly a decade.</p><p style="text-align: left;">It is a good lesson to understand how Mizuho’s credit costs moved from close to…</p>

Loan impairment costs are becoming less benign and more normal, for Mizuho Financial Group (8411), and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Funding costs are increasing at an unprecedented rate, where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to offer negative interest rates on excess deposits at the central bank. The result is an ROA for Mizuho at closer to its normal low levels and the lowest it’s seen in nearly a decade.It is a good lesson to understand how Mizuho’s credit costs moved from close to…

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

<p>Up until one year ago, shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP)</a> basically moved as a low-beta proxy for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a>, which given that around 40% of Softbank's enterprise value was tied up in the Chinese eCommerce giant, wasn't unreasonable.  However, during 2016, the relationship started to break down, and in 2017, whilst Alibaba has been at the fore of the internet / tech boom on Wall Street, Softbank share price fortunes have fluctuated.</p><p>A reasonable explanation for the…</p>

Up until one year ago, shares in Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP) basically moved as a low-beta proxy for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US), which given that around 40% of Softbank's enterprise value was tied up in the Chinese eCommerce giant, wasn't unreasonable.  However, during 2016, the relationship started to break down, and in 2017, whilst Alibaba has been at the fore of the internet / tech boom on Wall Street, Softbank share price fortunes have fluctuated.A reasonable explanation for the…

SoftBank - Not A Bank, But the Stock Behaves Like One... And Perhaps It Should

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies

Uzabase

Specialising in Japanese and Asian equity long/short strategies with a focus on rigorous, but targeted quantitative analysis to temper evaluations of company strategy, potential and vision. At Uzabase, our team of analysts provides coverage of industry dynamics with a local Asian flavour on Speeda, our financial information platform. Going forward we are aiming to channel our focus toward thematic research on emerging industries and company research.

<h2>Lender Solidarity Fracturing</h2><p>The Nikkei reported today that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/218" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306 JP)</a> internally downgraded <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s debt from "requiring attention" to "requiring supervision". This move would require MUFG to book reserves on any new financing to the company which could impact its decision to participate in the JPY300bn of credit lines that Toshiba is seeking. While the downgrade is relatively minor, it is pertinent because MUFG, while a major lender to Toshiba, is…</p>

Lender Solidarity FracturingThe Nikkei reported today that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306 JP) internally downgraded Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s debt from "requiring attention" to "requiring supervision". This move would require MUFG to book reserves on any new financing to the company which could impact its decision to participate in the JPY300bn of credit lines that Toshiba is seeking. While the downgrade is relatively minor, it is pertinent because MUFG, while a major lender to Toshiba, is…

Toshiba Cracks Widen as MUFG Gets Cold Feet on Credit Lines and Cumbrian Plant Delay Looms

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

Diverging Credit Quality to Worsen at Mega Banks Vs. Peer Banks?

The mega banks in Japan are seeing non-performing loans (NPLs) rising from foreign offices, not from domestic operations. The impact is a divergent...

Daniel Tabbush

The Week That Was in NorthAsia@Smartkarma: Lineage, Moonjaeinnomics, Toshiba and 3D Touch Sensor

A hidden gem in OLED sphereJL Warren Capital gives us an interesting OLED stock to watch in the long-term. This company is called Nissha Printing...

Sanghyun Park

Hit on All Fronts

Loan impairment costs are becoming less benign and more normal, for Mizuho Financial Group (8411), and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Funding...

Daniel Tabbush

SoftBank - Not A Bank, But the Stock Behaves Like One... And Perhaps It Should

Up until one year ago, shares in Softbank Group Corp (9984 JP) basically moved as a low-beta proxy for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US), which...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Toshiba Cracks Widen as MUFG Gets Cold Feet on Credit Lines and Cumbrian Plant Delay Looms

Lender Solidarity FracturingThe Nikkei reported today that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306 JP) internally downgraded Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s...

Mio Kato

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