Director | Exposing Creative Accounting, Bucephalus Research Partnership

Robert Medd

Director | Exposing Creative Accounting

Exposing Creative Accounting

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Bucephalus Research Partnership Limited. Exposing Creative Accounting.

At the Bucephalus Research Partnership (BRP) we analyse financial statements using our accountant's practical experience and our own quantitative algorithms for corporate governance, accounting risk and peer performance.

Our thematic research refines our unique algorithms while our single stock research focuses on examples where we discover a significant gap between published accounts and business reality.

​Bucephalus Research Partnership:
- Is an independent fee-based research service
- Does not take proprietary positions, long or short
- Does not solicit business or fees from the corporates we review

Forensic Accounting

Hengan International Group / Forensic Accounting

We are concerned that Hengan’s governance leaves minorities vulnerable, their accounts create false confidence in credit quality; and that business performance is unsustainable.The overall Governance, Accounting risk and Performance score of 119 is not very bad, but the aggregate hides extreme scores for debt churn, margins and leverage.With limited revenue growth, the stock’s premium valuation relies on its high margins. If they prove to be unsustainable, investors could be in for a shock.…

We are concerned that Hengan’s governance leaves minorities vulnerable, their accounts create false confidence in credit quality; and that business performance is unsustainable.The overall Governance, Accounting risk and Performance score of 119 is not very bad, but the aggregate hides extreme scores for debt churn, margins and leverage.With limited revenue growth, the stock’s premium valuation relies on its high margins. If they prove to be unsustainable, investors could be in for a shock.…

Sell Hengan (1044 HK): Relationships, Churn & Margin Pressure. Target HK$38 (Down 50%)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Men’s grooming sales increased by 7% in current value terms to CNY13.3 billion in 2017.</li><li>Growing sophistication among Chinese male consumers ensured steady growth in men’s grooming in 2017.</li><li>Unit price slightly ascended in 2017.</li><li>L’Oréal China led men’s grooming in 2017 with a 17% value share.</li><li>Men’s grooming is expected to record a CAGR of 4% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach sales of CNY16.0 billion in 2022.</li></ul>

Men’s grooming sales increased by 7% in current value terms to CNY13.3 billion in 2017.Growing sophistication among Chinese male consumers ensured steady growth in men’s grooming in 2017.Unit price slightly ascended in 2017.L’Oréal China led men’s grooming in 2017 with a 17% value share.Men’s grooming is expected to record a CAGR of 4% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach sales of CNY16.0 billion in 2022.

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>I’ve been underweight consumer staples on valuation and business model disruption risks since 2015 and the sector has de-rated significantly versus the wider market and consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>I’ve also highlighted the disintermediation shock facing the advertising industry – heavy brand advertising to guarantee prime supermarket shelf space is becoming a defunct business model.</li>
<li>Recent results from FMCG giants like Nestle and the advertising sector have disappointed, with tighter client spending…</li>
</ul>


I’ve been underweight consumer staples on valuation and business model disruption risks since 2015 and the sector has de-rated significantly versus the wider market and consumer discretionary.
I’ve also highlighted the disintermediation shock facing the advertising industry – heavy brand advertising to guarantee prime supermarket shelf space is becoming a defunct business model.
Recent results from FMCG giants like Nestle and the advertising sector have disappointed, with tighter client spending…


With ‘Brand Building’ Ad Era Over, Can Food Inflation Rescue FMCG Margins?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Just after midnight Tokyo time this morning, a headline popped across CNBC saying "Renault-Nissan's Ghosn has proposed a Dutch foundation to manage the carmakers". This was followed quickly by others. ✽ BNP Advising Renault, Nomura Advising Nissan on Deal - Sources ✽ Renault, Nissan Discussing Closer Tie-up That Would See France Sell Renault Stake to Nissan - Sources ✽ Renault-Nissan's Ghosn Has Proposed Dutch Foundation to Manage Carmakers - SourcesThis produced excitement. 185k shares traded in…

Just after midnight Tokyo time this morning, a headline popped across CNBC saying "Renault-Nissan's Ghosn has proposed a Dutch foundation to manage the carmakers". This was followed quickly by others. ✽ BNP Advising Renault, Nomura Advising Nissan on Deal - Sources ✽ Renault, Nissan Discussing Closer Tie-up That Would See France Sell Renault Stake to Nissan - Sources ✽ Renault-Nissan's Ghosn Has Proposed Dutch Foundation to Manage Carmakers - SourcesThis produced excitement. 185k shares traded in…

Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi - Moving Quickly? Maybe Not.

United Kingdom

Unilever PLC manufactures branded and packaged consumer goods, including food, detergents, fragrances, home and personal care products.  Dually-listed company with UNA NA.

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Unilever PLC (ULVR LN)

Sell Hengan (1044 HK): Relationships, Churn & Margin Pressure. Target HK$38 (Down 50%)

We are concerned that Hengan’s governance leaves minorities vulnerable, their accounts create false confidence in credit quality; and that business...

Bucephalus Research Partnership

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in China

Men’s grooming sales increased by 7% in current value terms to CNY13.3 billion in 2017. Growing sophistication among Chinese male consumers...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

With ‘Brand Building’ Ad Era Over, Can Food Inflation Rescue FMCG Margins?

I’ve been underweight consumer staples on valuation and business model disruption risks since 2015 and the sector has de-rated significantly...

Sean Maher

Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi - Moving Quickly? Maybe Not.

Just after midnight Tokyo time this morning, a headline popped across CNBC saying "Renault-Nissan's Ghosn has proposed a Dutch foundation to manage...

Travis Lundy

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