Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).</p>

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Owner and CEO, GR20 Research

Gregory Ramirez

Owner and CEO

Industry Research and Consulting Services

GR20 Research

GR20 Research provides industry research and consulting services

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Temenos has dismissed CEO Jean-Pierre Brulard after 16 months, despite progress under his leadership. CFO Panagiotis Spiliopoulos has been appointed interim CEO while a search for a successor is underway.   </li>
<li>The company’s repeated reliance on CFOs to fill CEO roles and failure to retain or promote internal candidates from sales or product functions highlight structural weaknesses in leadership succession planning.   </li>
<li>Although Temenos’ strategic plan is in place and early results are positive, the leadership instability has reignited investor concerns—reflected in a c. 15% share price drop.</li>
</ul>


Temenos has dismissed CEO Jean-Pierre Brulard after 16 months, despite progress under his leadership. CFO Panagiotis Spiliopoulos has been appointed interim CEO while a search for a successor is underway.   
The company’s repeated reliance on CFOs to fill CEO roles and failure to retain or promote internal candidates from sales or product functions highlight structural weaknesses in leadership succession planning.   
Although Temenos’ strategic plan is in place and early results are positive, the leadership instability has reignited investor concerns—reflected in a c. 15% share price drop.


Temenos (TEMN SW): Structural Senior Leadership Issue

<ul>
<li>The sale of Multifonds at a low EV/EBIT multiple of 8.0x reflects Montagu's use of a higher multiple based on adjustments to EBITDA, pointing out modest free cash flow contribution.   </li>
<li>Considering the sale, Temenos revised 2028 targets, reducing ARR, operating profit, and free cash flow projections accordingly. Investors are looking for more transparency on how these changes affect operating margin.   </li>
<li>Temenos’ shift from total software licensing breakdowns to a unified subscriptions/SaaS line, alongside complex revenue recognition rules, adds to investor uncertainty about how to assess the future revenue structure.</li>
</ul>


The sale of Multifonds at a low EV/EBIT multiple of 8.0x reflects Montagu's use of a higher multiple based on adjustments to EBITDA, pointing out modest free cash flow contribution.   
Considering the sale, Temenos revised 2028 targets, reducing ARR, operating profit, and free cash flow projections accordingly. Investors are looking for more transparency on how these changes affect operating margin.   
Temenos’ shift from total software licensing breakdowns to a unified subscriptions/SaaS line, alongside complex revenue recognition rules, adds to investor uncertainty about how to assess the future revenue structure.


Temenos (TEMN SW): Trying to Solve the Modelling Puzzle

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Diving Deep into Hindenburg Research's comprehensive report on Temenos triggers a market plunge, alleging accounting manipulations, failed North American expansion, product failures, and troubled European deals.</li>
<li>Allegations include aggressive revenue recognition, excessive R&amp;D capitalization, difficulty in revenue collection, inflated free cash flow, and executive insiders stock divestment.</li>
<li>Temenos denies allegations, defending its business integrity, performance, and financial standing, but market volatility persists, emphasizing the need for transparent communication and governance reassurance.</li>
</ul>


Diving Deep into Hindenburg Research's comprehensive report on Temenos triggers a market plunge, alleging accounting manipulations, failed North American expansion, product failures, and troubled European deals.
Allegations include aggressive revenue recognition, excessive R&amp;D capitalization, difficulty in revenue collection, inflated free cash flow, and executive insiders stock divestment.
Temenos denies allegations, defending its business integrity, performance, and financial standing, but market volatility persists, emphasizing the need for transparent communication and governance reassurance.


Unveiling the Shadows: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's Exposé on Temenos

Research Analyst, AlphaBox Advisors

Vijay Lohia, CFA

Research Analyst

Value-Investing Philosophy and Bottom-up Approach

AlphaBox Advisors

At AlphaBox, our recommendations are sector and country agnostic and diversified by market cap. We follow value-investing philosophy and pursue a bottom-up approach to recommending stocks that has a good risk-reward profile and potential to generate market-beating returns, which in some cases would be complemented with an attractive dividend yield. Our recommendations fall into the following two broad categories: (i) Long-term Compounders – Global Markets (ii) EM and FM Alpha

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Temenos is an attractive takeover candidate with multiple M&amp;A  speculation in the media in the last 12-18 months. </li>
<li>The probability of Temenos being taken over continues to increase especially after the fresh round of banking industry turmoil witnessed in the last few weeks.</li>
<li>At a buy-out multiple of 10x EV/sales, Temenos would be worth CHF110 per share which is roughly 72% upside from here.</li>
</ul>


Temenos is an attractive takeover candidate with multiple M&amp;A  speculation in the media in the last 12-18 months. 
The probability of Temenos being taken over continues to increase especially after the fresh round of banking industry turmoil witnessed in the last few weeks.
At a buy-out multiple of 10x EV/sales, Temenos would be worth CHF110 per share which is roughly 72% upside from here.


Temenos (TEMN SW; TMSNY US): M&A Looks Imminent

Switzerland

Temenos AG provides integrated software solutions. The Company offers analytics, channels, financial crime mitigation, funds and securities, risk and compliance, and front office and digital banking suits for the management of administrative tasks at banks and financial services companies. Temenos operates worldwide.

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Temenos AG (TEMN SW)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Temenos (TEMN SW): Structural Senior Leadership Issue

Temenos dismisses CEO after 16 months, appoints CFO as interim CEO, highlighting weaknesses in leadership succession planning and causing investor...

Gregory Ramirez

Temenos (TEMN SW): Trying to Solve the Modelling Puzzle

Montagu's sale of Multifonds at low multiple prompts Temenos to revise targets, causing investor uncertainty over revenue structure and operating...

Gregory Ramirez

Unveiling the Shadows: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's Exposé on Temenos

Reason behind 33% Fall in Temenos Share Price: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's latest exposé on Temenos comprising of financial...

Nimish Maheshwari

Temenos (TEMN SW; TMSNY US): M&A Looks Imminent

The probability of Temenos being taken over continues to increase especially after the fresh round of banking industry turmoil witnessed in the...

Vijay Lohia, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

Temenos (TEMN SW): Structural Senior Leadership Issue

​Temenos dismisses CEO after 16 months, appoints CFO as interim CEO, highlighting weaknesses in leadership succession planning and causing investor...

Gregory Ramirez

Temenos (TEMN SW): Trying to Solve the Modelling Puzzle

​Montagu's sale of Multifonds at low multiple prompts Temenos to revise targets, causing investor uncertainty over revenue structure and operating...

Gregory Ramirez

Unveiling the Shadows: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's Exposé on Temenos

Reason behind 33% Fall in Temenos Share Price: A Deep Dive into Hindenburg Research's latest exposé on Temenos comprising of financial...

Nimish Maheshwari

Temenos (TEMN SW; TMSNY US): M&A Looks Imminent

The probability of Temenos being taken over continues to increase especially after the fresh round of banking industry turmoil witnessed in the...

Vijay Lohia, CFA

Temenos dismisses CEO after 16 months, appoints CFO as interim CEO, highlighting weaknesses in leadership succession planning and causing investor...

Montagu's sale of Multifonds at low multiple prompts Temenos to revise targets, causing investor uncertainty over revenue structure and operating...