Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

A mixed bag of signals, but generally better than thought<ul>
<li>
GDP contraction in 3Q15: The economy shrank 0.8% y/y (annualised rate), after falling 0.7% in 2Q15 but a massive inventory drawdown was the principal factor. Final demand continued to grow.</li>
<li>
Underlying inflation still positive: While headline consumer inflation rose 0.3% y/y in October, up from zero in September. The "core-core inflation" measure, which the BOJ prefers, edged up by 0.7%, moderating from September's 0.9%.</li>
<li>
Weak consumer…</li>
</ul>

A mixed bag of signals, but generally better than thought

GDP contraction in 3Q15: The economy shrank 0.8% y/y (annualised rate), after falling 0.7% in 2Q15 but a massive inventory drawdown was the principal factor. Final demand continued to grow.

Underlying inflation still positive: While headline consumer inflation rose 0.3% y/y in October, up from zero in September. The "core-core inflation" measure, which the BOJ prefers, edged up by 0.7%, moderating from September's 0.9%.

Weak consumer…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The market appears to see some risk that the BoJ surprise at tomorrow’s meeting and ease policy.  This is not out of the question, but the timing would be very odd.  EUR/JPY downtrend appears likely to persist if the BoJ refrains from easing.  The market is relatively sure that the Fed will tighten in December and the upside for USD/JPY may be limited if the Fed minutes continue to emphasise a gradual path for rate hikes.  The AUD has been surprisingly resilient to weaker commodity prices, but…

The market appears to see some risk that the BoJ surprise at tomorrow’s meeting and ease policy.  This is not out of the question, but the timing would be very odd.  EUR/JPY downtrend appears likely to persist if the BoJ refrains from easing.  The market is relatively sure that the Fed will tighten in December and the upside for USD/JPY may be limited if the Fed minutes continue to emphasise a gradual path for rate hikes.  The AUD has been surprisingly resilient to weaker commodity prices, but…

EUR/JPY Downtrend Likely to Persist if BoJ Leave Policy Unchanged

In the last two weeks the ECB has taken steps towards more monetary easing and the BoJ has taken a step back. This has resulted in a further fall in the rates spread to a record low for the EUR/JPY.&nbsp; The cross does not look cheap on a longer term perspective and we see a higher risk of a significant fall over the next few months. A short strategy in this pair has the advantage of being less-affected by developments in the US economy that may cause sharp moves in the USD, such as over the payrolls report this week.

In the last two weeks the ECB has taken steps towards more monetary easing and the BoJ has taken a step back. This has resulted in a further fall in the rates spread to a record low for the EUR/JPY.&nbsp; The cross does not look cheap on a longer term perspective and we see a higher risk of a significant fall over the next few months. A short strategy in this pair has the advantage of being less-affected by developments in the US economy that may cause sharp moves in the USD, such as over the payrolls report this week.

AmpGFX - BoJ and ECB open door for lower EUR/JPY

<ul><li>Japan's economy appears to be turning the corner, as cyclical conditions improve and structural changes show progress.</li><li>An important structural adjustment is the entry of a significant proportion of females into the labour force, as cultural stereotypes are gradually broken.&nbsp;Adding more females to the workforce will generate economic benefits and lift Japan's languid growth trajectory.</li><li>Given Japan's revitalised economy, Asian countries, especially ASEAN economies, will stand to benefit from the increased trade and investment flows.</li></ul>

Japan's economy appears to be turning the corner, as cyclical conditions improve and structural changes show progress.An important structural adjustment is the entry of a significant proportion of females into the labour force, as cultural stereotypes are gradually broken.&nbsp;Adding more females to the workforce will generate economic benefits and lift Japan's languid growth trajectory.Given Japan's revitalised economy, Asian countries, especially ASEAN economies, will stand to benefit from the increased trade and investment flows.

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

<ul><li>Japan is offering USD110bn for Asia&rsquo;s infrastructure needs, competing with China-backed AIIB and NDB in providing such funds.</li><li>Asia gains from the power-play in light of its much needed infrastructure upgrade. But until weaknesses in governance are tackled, the vast funds on offer will have little impact.</li></ul>

Japan is offering USD110bn for Asia&rsquo;s infrastructure needs, competing with China-backed AIIB and NDB in providing such funds.Asia gains from the power-play in light of its much needed infrastructure upgrade. But until weaknesses in governance are tackled, the vast funds on offer will have little impact.

Japan

TOPIX ETF is an Exchange-traded fund which holds a portfolio representing all stocks in the Tokyo Price Index (TOPIX).  The objective of the trust is to provide investment results that corresponds to the price and yield performance of the component securities of the Tokyo Price Index.

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Nomura ETF Topix (1306 JP)

Japan: No Urgent Need for BOJ Easing

A mixed bag of signals, but generally better than thought GDP contraction in 3Q15: The economy shrank 0.8% y/y (annualised rate), after falling...

Jason Tan

EUR/JPY Downtrend Likely to Persist if BoJ Leave Policy Unchanged

The market appears to see some risk that the BoJ surprise at tomorrow’s meeting and ease policy. This is not out of the question, but the timing...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - BoJ and ECB open door for lower EUR/JPY

In the last two weeks the ECB has taken steps towards more monetary easing and the BoJ has taken a step back. This has resulted in a further fall...

Greg Gibbs

Japan's changes could mean ASEAN upside

Japan's economy appears to be turning the corner, as cyclical conditions improve and structural changes show progress. An important structural...

Jason Tan

'Infrastructure wars'

Japan is offering USD110bn for Asia’s infrastructure needs, competing with China-backed AIIB and NDB in providing such funds. Asia gains from the...

Manu Bhaskaran

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