Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The industrial sector is exhibiting signs of a prolonged slowdown, similar to Real Estate and Household trends.</li><li>This Note is the third in a series on China's econChina'scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.</li><li>Qingdao City on Friday reduced the deposit requirement for purchasing homes, following a trend set by several other cities.</li></ul>

The industrial sector is exhibiting signs of a prolonged slowdown, similar to Real Estate and Household trends.This Note is the third in a series on China's econChina'scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.Qingdao City on Friday reduced the deposit requirement for purchasing homes, following a trend set by several other cities.

Macroeconomics

<div data-attrs='{"url":"https://gordianknot.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe"}'><div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><div><ul><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.</span></li><li>We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?</li><li>We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.</li></ul></div></form></div></div>

To a 180-degree flip at the End of the Dollar hegemony and reserve system, opinions were pushed aggressively over mainstream CNN, FOX News networks, News Headlines, and fringe opinion makers looking for click baits.We look at sentiment shift, and is it different from when Dollar peaked in October 2022?We cover JPY, CNY, KRW, INR, TWD, AUD, CHF, EUR &amp; GBP charts. We have added equity and rates charts in China, India, and Korea where possible to help corroborate cross-market analysis.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li><p>Monetary / In Depth: Has China’s monetary policy reached its limit?</p></li><li><p>Cyberattack / Alleged U.S. cyberattack targeted China’s key telecom infrastructure</p></li><li><p>Pensions / China announces tax breaks to kick start personal pensions market</p></li></ul>

Monetary / In Depth: Has China’s monetary policy reached its limit?Cyberattack / Alleged U.S. cyberattack targeted China’s key telecom infrastructurePensions / China announces tax breaks to kick start personal pensions market

CX Daily: Has China’s Monetary Policy Reached Its Limit?

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

China Recovery - Industrial

This Note is the third in a series on China's econChina'scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.

Untying The Gordian Knot

US Dollar is Dead Redux

This note extensively focuses on sentiment as the market is overwhelmed with the Negative Dollar narrative that is mainstream. And it begs the...

Untying The Gordian Knot

CX Daily: Has China’s Monetary Policy Reached Its Limit?

In Depth: Has China’s monetary policy reached its limit? Alleged U.S. cyberattack targeted China’s key telecom infrastructure

Caixin Global

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot