Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that SOFR-Fed Funds spreads reveal that USD Liquidity is not ample and that the Fed will have to end QT early.</li><li>The spread widening in SOFR – Fed Funds, caught a lot of attention over the past few days and it is interesting how swiftly the market jumps to the conclusion that it will lead to the Fed panic-ending QT already in Dec or January.</li><li>Why are SOFR – Fed Funds spreads widening and how do we deal with it?</li></ul>

We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that SOFR-Fed Funds spreads reveal that USD Liquidity is not ample and that the Fed will have to end QT early.The spread widening in SOFR – Fed Funds, caught a lot of attention over the past few days and it is interesting how swiftly the market jumps to the conclusion that it will lead to the Fed panic-ending QT already in Dec or January.Why are SOFR – Fed Funds spreads widening and how do we deal with it?

5 Things We Watch – Liquidity, Bond positioning, Oil, Consumer spending & Rates

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s geopolitical round-up.</li><li>We’ll have a look at the most recent events of which we have seen quite a few! In a surprisingly self-assured and bold move, Venezuela moved troops close to the Guyanan province of Essequibo, seemingly preparing for a full-scale invasion.</li><li>Guyana has been the center of attention for the oil business in recent years after the discovery of significant oil reserves in the Essequibo province.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s geopolitical round-up.We’ll have a look at the most recent events of which we have seen quite a few! In a surprisingly self-assured and bold move, Venezuela moved troops close to the Guyanan province of Essequibo, seemingly preparing for a full-scale invasion.Guyana has been the center of attention for the oil business in recent years after the discovery of significant oil reserves in the Essequibo province.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Takeaways: Cohesion back at OPEC, but for how long?</li><li>US the biggest winner in crude oil markets.</li><li>Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.</li></ul>

Takeaways: Cohesion back at OPEC, but for how long?US the biggest winner in crude oil markets.Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.

Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas Longs to Scholz: “Thank You!”

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.</li><li>Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.</li><li>What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from frosty Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! The underlying demand trends are not strong.Running credit card data has been weak in October/November, the credit impulse is worsening and there are signs of actual labour market softening around the otherwise sticky service sectors in the West, yet markets are partying like there is no tomorrow.What is causing this disconnect and could it continue into the year-end?

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Gold Has closed at its highest monthly close price ever! And further gains lie ahead in the coming years. Yet, most multi-asset investors still do not have any exposure to the yellow metal.</li>
<li>What if not the Fed but the ECB cuts rates first? Incoming inflation data suggests a 2024 combination of deflation and recession is increasingly likely, leaving the ECB little room but lower rates.</li>
<li>Oil fell as OPEC+ half-heartedly presented another one million barrels per day production cut, which has written ‘voluntary’ all over it.</li>
</ul>


Gold Has closed at its highest monthly close price ever! And further gains lie ahead in the coming years. Yet, most multi-asset investors still do not have any exposure to the yellow metal.
What if not the Fed but the ECB cuts rates first? Incoming inflation data suggests a 2024 combination of deflation and recession is increasingly likely, leaving the ECB little room but lower rates.
Oil fell as OPEC+ half-heartedly presented another one million barrels per day production cut, which has written ‘voluntary’ all over it.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Gold Shines, Oil Slumps, and Yields Should Reverse

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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5 Things We Watch – Liquidity, Bond positioning, Oil, Consumer spending & Rates

We’ve spent the past 2 days in London, meeting clients and hedge funds, and there was a lot of support for the idea/notion that...

Steno Research

Great Game – War over Oil… In LatAm?

Welcome to this week’s geopolitical round-up. We’ll have a look at the most recent events of which we have seen quite a few!Venezuela moving to...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #48 – Natural Gas Longs to Scholz: “Thank You!”

Last week’s much anticipated OPEC meeting concluded with the decision to cut production further by 1 million barrels per day.

Steno Research

Steno Signals #76: The Fed Has Lost Control of Liquidity Trends

It seems like the narrative lags the actual price action. 2024 estimates/outlooks are turning upbeat, while positioning is one way traffic towards...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Gold Shines, Oil Slumps, and Yields Should Reverse

Gold has closed at its highest monthly close price ever! And this asset class is still hugely underowned. This and much more in the Weekly Market...

Jeroen Blokland

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