Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.</li><li>We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.</li><li>Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.</li></ul>

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards.We put to use our Macro Regime Indicator framework, alongside the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model, to carry out this analysis.Coming into September, we wrote that: “Looking ahead, we do not expect sudden shocks or changes to the current conditions.

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

<ul><li>It is no secret that we turned energy bullish early in the summer with pretty accurate timing and made a nice run based on being ahead of the crowd on the call.</li><li>We have kept various energy proxies alive in our portfolio and were stopped out of our Refiners spread earlier today due to a material sell-off on the back of the weekly EIA report.</li><li>The EIA report is usually not a &gt;1-2 sigma market mover, but oh boy it moved markets today and we find very good reasons why when assessing the data.</li></ul>

It is no secret that we turned energy bullish early in the summer with pretty accurate timing and made a nice run based on being ahead of the crowd on the call.We have kept various energy proxies alive in our portfolio and were stopped out of our Refiners spread earlier today due to a material sell-off on the back of the weekly EIA report.The EIA report is usually not a &gt;1-2 sigma market mover, but oh boy it moved markets today and we find very good reasons why when assessing the data.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.</li><li>On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.</li><li>This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due to higher local fuel and food prices.On MoM basis, CPI inflation was up 2.0% in Sep 2023 as compared to 1.7% in Aug 2023 and last 3-month average of 1.6%.This takes 1QFY24 average inflation to 29.04% compared to 25.11% in 1QFY23.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.</li><li>The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.</li><li>Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.</li></ul>

It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come.The crude bull-case is seemingly running on fumes, but while Warren’s models are back on neutral, Andreas’ oil model is still signaling bullish price action for some time to come, and Steno Research’s gas model is now back in bullish territory, for those who want to stay in the energy-trade.Cracks are forming in the oil market. More specifically, cracks spreads are plunging. Below, we plot the front month 3-2-1 crack spread traded on the NYMEX.

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

Macro Regime Model: Inflation down while growth is on the up?

Every month, we present our best evaluation of the present and approaching month’s macroeconomic conditions, balancing risks and rewards. We put...

Steno Research

Oil Watch: OUCH!

It is no secret that we turned energy bullish early in the summer with pretty accurate timing and made a nice run based on being ahead of the...

Steno Research

Pakistan Economy - Inflation up 31% YoY in Sep-2023 as Expected

Pakistan’s CPI Inflation jumped to 31.4% YoY in Sep-2023, breaking a three-months of YoY declining trend. The significant hike in inflation is due...

Topline Securities

The Energy Cable #40 – Time to follow crack spreads!

It’s once again time for us to give our weekly take on energy markets, as well as where to place your chips in the time to come. The crude...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)