Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

While the S&amp;P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&amp;P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to the periods leading up to the October 2018 and May 2019 breakdowns. We draw several similarities in today’s report, and we continue to believe upside is likely to be muted from here barring additional positive developments.

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Gold prices have broken out higher, but unusually this cannot be explained by the US Fed</li>
<li>China is a de facto part of the notional US dollar area and the PBoC is easing once again</li>
<li>PBoC ends October-April tightening: injecting RMB 1.1 trillion into markets in May and June</li>
<li>Gold prices and PBoC liquidity are closely correlated. China is driving gold prices higher</li>
</ul>


Gold prices have broken out higher, but unusually this cannot be explained by the US Fed
China is a de facto part of the notional US dollar area and the PBoC is easing once again
PBoC ends October-April tightening: injecting RMB 1.1 trillion into markets in May and June
Gold prices and PBoC liquidity are closely correlated. China is driving gold prices higher


The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. In today's report we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. Also highlighted are attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Health Care, and Utilities: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Cardiovascular Products, and Gas, Midwest.

The S&amp;P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news ahead of the Trump/Xi G20 meeting later this week. While a breakout is certainly possible, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. In today's report we highlight a mix of positive and negative developments which lead us to this conclusion along with updates on other big picture trends. Also highlighted are attractive Groups and stocks within Materials, Health Care, and Utilities: Gold, Western Hemisphere, Cardiovascular Products, and Gas, Midwest.

U.S. Dollar Breaking Down; Gold Breaking Out

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

Demand for safe-haven assets like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-gold-shares" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)</a>  should rise further
<ul>
<li>US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in January.</li>
<li>German 10-year yield below 0% and negative yielding assets totalling nearly US$13 trn.</li>
<li>Hedge fund positioning remains relatively neutral despite the recent rally, suggesting more buying potential.</li>
</ul>

Demand for safe-haven assets like Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)  should rise further

US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in January.
German 10-year yield below 0% and negative yielding assets totalling nearly US$13 trn.
Hedge fund positioning remains relatively neutral despite the recent rally, suggesting more buying potential.


Gold Supported by Easy Money - Breakout to US$1,500 Looks Possible

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year.  The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD.  However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies.  Trump's attacks on the Fed’s independence and threats against other countries alleged attempts to devalue their currencies cannot be helping the dollar and adds support to gold.  A range of geopolitical risks driven by unprecedented US administration aggression may further support gold.  A G20 attempt to restart US-China trade negotiations may provide a reprieve for the USD and US yields, and provide a dip in gold. Facebook’s Libra represents yet another threat to the USD. Its announcement in the same week as Trump stomps on the institutional underpinnings for the USD is a foreboding sign.

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

U.S. Equities: Mixed Signals Punctuate Muted Outlook

While the S&P 500 has hit marginal new highs, price action of the S&P 500 and the price and RS of several Sectors/subsectors is similar to...

Vermilion Research

Does China Control The World Gold Price?

Gold prices have broken out higher, but unusually this cannot be explained by the US Fed China is a de facto part of the notional US dollar area...

Michael J. Howell

U.S. Dollar Breaking Down; Gold Breaking Out

The S&P 500 is consolidating under 2,954 - logical resistance - as market participants are in wait-and-see mode for incremental trade news...

Vermilion Research

Gold Supported by Easy Money - Breakout to US$1,500 Looks Possible

Demand for safe-haven assets like Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) should rise further US real rates fall to just 34bps from nearly 100bps in...

Charles Spencer

Which Currency Do You Want to Hold – Gold, Crypto or Fiat?

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)