Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

CEO, ByteTree Asset Management

ByteTree Asset Management

Specialising in Bitcoin, Gold and Digital Assets

Investment Manager specialising in bitcoin, gold and digital assets

Commodities

<ul><li>Finally, we see the beginning of the long-anticipated monetary normalisation in Japan.</li><li>This is the only country in the world to still have negative interest rates, which is odd given inflation has been rising, albeit modestly to Western Economies.</li><li>This ultra-loose policy has seen bond yields remain close to zero while the yen has slumped.</li></ul>

Finally, we see the beginning of the long-anticipated monetary normalisation in Japan.This is the only country in the world to still have negative interest rates, which is odd given inflation has been rising, albeit modestly to Western Economies.This ultra-loose policy has seen bond yields remain close to zero while the yen has slumped.

<ul><li>There can be no doubt that gold has intrinsic value, as it is a rare commodity. But even if it wasn’t rare, like sand or manure, it would still have intrinsic value, just much less than it currently does.</li><li>The question I have been asking is how much of the gold price reflects its intrinsic value, and how much is something else?</li><li>Gold is a monetary asset and, as a result, is valued above and beyond its intrinsic value.</li></ul>

There can be no doubt that gold has intrinsic value, as it is a rare commodity. But even if it wasn’t rare, like sand or manure, it would still have intrinsic value, just much less than it currently does.The question I have been asking is how much of the gold price reflects its intrinsic value, and how much is something else?Gold is a monetary asset and, as a result, is valued above and beyond its intrinsic value.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.</li>
<li>The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.</li>
<li>We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.</li>
</ul>


We believe the odds that the Fed is done hiking have increased significantly after the latest FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.
The key reason to lift the weight of Equities and Treasuries is that historically both asset classes have performed well after the final Fed hike.
We looked at the average and median return on US and Developed Market Equities, US Treasuries, Commodities, and Gold following the end of the tightening cycle since 1970.


Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.</li><li>Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.</li><li>It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.</li></ul>

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over exports from the key Black Sea region.Russia’s defense ministry said that all ships headed to the ports from Thursday will be considered as potentially carrying military cargo.It also said flag countries of vessels sailing to Ukraine will be considered as on Kyiv’s side in the conflict.

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

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Finally, we see the beginning of the long-anticipated monetary normalisation in Japan. This is the only country in the world to still have negative...

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The question I have been asking is how much of the gold price reflects its intrinsic value, and how much is something else?

ByteTree Asset Management

Change in Portfolio Weighs - The Fed Rules: Increasing the Weights of Equities and Treasuries

After the latest FOMC meeting and a dovish-sounding Powell, the odds we have reached the end of the tightening cycle have spiked, boding well for...

Jeroen Blokland

Wheat explodes after Russia threatens to attack grain shipments // Dollar-Commodities Divergence

Wheat futures soared as much as 9%, the biggest jump since 2012, as Russia threatened ships sailing to Ukrainian ports, escalating a conflict over...

The Commodity Report

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