Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.</li>
<li>China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.</li>
<li>Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.
China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.
Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.


ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>
Australia: RBA rate decision on 1 April. Expect no change.
</li>
<li>
Japan: Nikkei 225 rebalancing effective 31 March at the close.</li>
<li>
US reciprocal tariffs will keep everyone on their toes on 2 April.</li>
</ul>



Australia: RBA rate decision on 1 April. Expect no change.


Japan: Nikkei 225 rebalancing effective 31 March at the close.

US reciprocal tariffs will keep everyone on their toes on 2 April.


Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (31 March- 6 April)

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Equity Derivatives

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>The Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio is underperforming due to the rally in banks and insurance stocks.</li><li>The TPNBNK/TOPIX ratio has returned to its 2013 level.</li><li>The TSEREIT/TOPIX ratio is now trading at a 15-year low.</li></ul>

The Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio is underperforming due to the rally in banks and insurance stocks.The TPNBNK/TOPIX ratio has returned to its 2013 level.The TSEREIT/TOPIX ratio is now trading at a 15-year low.

<ul>
<li>Japanese Equities up 1.8% vs. World +1.22% and US +2.89% while HSCE was down 6.1%.</li>
<li>Japan Sectors: Real Estate up 6.22%, Mining +4.66%, Banks +4.20%</li>
<li>JPY 5Y Rates up 5bps, ITRAXX Japan 5Y jumped 4.3 pt.</li>
</ul>


Japanese Equities up 1.8% vs. World +1.22% and US +2.89% while HSCE was down 6.1%.
Japan Sectors: Real Estate up 6.22%, Mining +4.66%, Banks +4.20%
JPY 5Y Rates up 5bps, ITRAXX Japan 5Y jumped 4.3 pt.


Weekly Macroeconomic Report (26 March 2025)

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> at the close of trading on 31 March.</li>
<li>Since announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.</li>
<li>Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.</li>
</ul>



BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) at the close of trading on 31 March.
Since announcement, BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) stock is up with cumulative excess volume increasing, while Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) is lower on a much bigger increase in cumulative excess volume.
Some of the forecast adds and deletes have moved as one would expect, but positioning for the September rebalance could lead to reversals over the next few weeks and months.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Taiwan has taken in the largest inflows in Q1 while the largest outflows are in China. The switch from EEM to IEMG continues. Redemptions from EMXC...

Brian Freitas

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (31 March- 6 April)

RBA expected to keep rates steady, Nikkei 225 rebalancing in Japan, India shifting its option expiration day, Exchange Holidays in India and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Equity Indices Vs. TOPIX Ratios

The Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio is underperforming due to the rally in banks and insurance stocks. The TPNBNK/TOPIX ratio has returned to its 2013 level.

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Weekly Macroeconomic Report (26 March 2025)

Japanese Equities up 1.8% vs. World +1.22% and US +2.89% while HSCE was down 6.1%. Japan Sectors: Real Estate up 6.22%, Mining +4.66%, Banks...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

Baycurrent could follow Nitori's playbook. Mitsubishi Logistics could drop some more. Kokusai is underperforming the SOX. Okuma and Tokuyama are up...

Brian Freitas

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Taiwan has taken in the largest inflows in Q1 while the largest outflows are in China. The switch from EEM to IEMG continues. Redemptions from EMXC...

Brian Freitas

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (31 March- 6 April)

​RBA expected to keep rates steady, Nikkei 225 rebalancing in Japan, India shifting its option expiration day, Exchange Holidays in India and...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Equity Indices Vs. TOPIX Ratios

The Nikkei 225/TOPIX ratio is underperforming due to the rally in banks and insurance stocks. The TPNBNK/TOPIX ratio has returned to its 2013 level.

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Weekly Macroeconomic Report (26 March 2025)

Japanese Equities up 1.8% vs. World +1.22% and US +2.89% while HSCE was down 6.1%. Japan Sectors: Real Estate up 6.22%, Mining +4.66%, Banks...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Positioning With a Few Days to Implementation

Baycurrent could follow Nitori's playbook. Mitsubishi Logistics could drop some more. Kokusai is underperforming the SOX. Okuma and Tokuyama are up...

Brian Freitas

RBA expected to keep rates steady, Nikkei 225 rebalancing in Japan, India shifting its option expiration day, Exchange Holidays in India and...