Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC Corp (6701 JP)</a> are looking to sell their entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.</li>
<li>The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)</a> trackers in October.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) are looking to sell their entire stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.
The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) trackers in October.


Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>US LEI release for December signals a weakening US economy</li>
<li>The annual growth rate of US LEI is deeply negative</li>
<li>December Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply indicating slower growth worldwide</li>
</ul>


US LEI release for December signals a weakening US economy
The annual growth rate of US LEI is deeply negative
December Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply indicating slower growth worldwide


Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EUR, China Stimulus, Euro PMIs, Nikkei, Suez </li><li>The last month of 2023 really showcased markets’ proclaimed inflation victory, with the Fed and other central banks promising rate cuts, disinflation trends continuing and equity prices rocketing, but the disinflation might be over, at least in the US as risks of higher inflation have been anchored in expectations.</li><li>Judging from relative inflation swaps, we have now exited the inflation convergence regime for 2022/2023 when markets convinced themselves that the inflation embeddedness was as much a European thing as it was an American thing.</li></ul>

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EUR, China Stimulus, Euro PMIs, Nikkei, Suez The last month of 2023 really showcased markets’ proclaimed inflation victory, with the Fed and other central banks promising rate cuts, disinflation trends continuing and equity prices rocketing, but the disinflation might be over, at least in the US as risks of higher inflation have been anchored in expectations.Judging from relative inflation swaps, we have now exited the inflation convergence regime for 2022/2023 when markets convinced themselves that the inflation embeddedness was as much a European thing as it was an American thing.

5 Things – Inflation Divergence, China, Euro PMIs, NIkkei and Suez

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.</li><li>Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.</li><li>While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.</li></ul>

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The seasonal matrix indicates a possibility for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> to continue its current rally into April and that rally should end in May. </li>
<li>The index at the moment is very overbought, we expect some form of WEEKLY pullback soon, please consult <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-225-weekly-lift-off-can-it-go-higher" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous insight</a> to find the WEEKLY resistance levels.</li>
<li>The pullback should be seen as a WEEKLY pullback within a larger, longer MONTHLY (multi-month) uptrend, i.e. an opportunity to buy and/or add positions at better prices. </li>
</ul>


The seasonal matrix indicates a possibility for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) to continue its current rally into April and that rally should end in May. 
The index at the moment is very overbought, we expect some form of WEEKLY pullback soon, please consult our previous insight to find the WEEKLY resistance levels.
The pullback should be seen as a WEEKLY pullback within a larger, longer MONTHLY (multi-month) uptrend, i.e. an opportunity to buy and/or add positions at better prices. 


EQD | Nikkei 225 - MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

Rikki Malik

5 Things – Inflation Divergence, China, Euro PMIs, NIkkei and Suez

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EURChina Stimulus Euro PMIsNikkeiSuez1) Inflation comeback in...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 - MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets

Based on our seasonal patterns models the Nikkei 225 could continue rallying into May, but a WEEKLY pullback is due soon. This is an opportunity...

Nico Rosti

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

Data Points to Continuing Signs of a Slowing US Economy

​US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

Rikki Malik

5 Things – Inflation Divergence, China, Euro PMIs, NIkkei and Suez

This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: US vs EURChina Stimulus Euro PMIsNikkeiSuez1) Inflation comeback in...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

EQD | Nikkei 225 - MONTHLY Rally Trajectory Analysis + Resistance Targets

​Based on our seasonal patterns models the Nikkei 225 could continue rallying into May, but a WEEKLY pullback is due soon. This is an opportunity...

Nico Rosti

US LEI for December shows a weakening economy with a deeply negative annual growth rate, while Taiwan Export Orders contract sharply, signaling...

Based on our seasonal patterns models the Nikkei 225 could continue rallying into May, but a WEEKLY pullback is due soon. This is an opportunity...