Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.</li>
<li>Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.</li>
</ul>


Both Nikkei and USD/JPY re-tested levels last seen in early August, with Nikkei implied vols surging.
Beyond tariffs, we explore what may become the dominant driver of market movements in the weeks ahead.
Skew steepened materially; we examine how open interest at current spot levels could shape the spot-vol relationship going forward.


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.</li>
<li>Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.</li>
<li>The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.</li>
</ul>


From Monday’s gloom to Tuesday’s euphoria, the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) staged one of the strongest rebounds — but tariff risks haven’t gone away. Still there.
Here are some tactical analysis and ideas specific for the Nikkei 225 Index to prepare for the key risk ahead: another brutal sell-off.
The targets highlighted by our models (below) come with low reversal probabilities — ranging from just 25% to 50% — this is consistent with weak market rebound dynamics.


Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. </li>
<li>
US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.</li>
<li>
Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.</li>
</ul>



Asia-Pac Performance: The Indian market bucketed the down trend with the Nifty 50 declining only 0.35% with stable implied volatility. The Nikkei 225, on the other hand,dropped 2.8%. 

US and European Decline: The US market saw the largest decline, with implied volatility rising by 8%. European indices showed mixed results, with the EuroStoxx 50 reacting strongly.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: Gold (GLD US ETF) proved to be a better store of value, while Bitcoin joined the US indices in higher volatility.


Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.</li>
<li>
Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).</li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, S&amp;P 500 futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.

Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the Nikkei 225, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).

Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

<ul>
<li>A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.</li>
<li>USD/JPY and Nikkei moved in opposite directions, with the index underperforming its historical relationship to FX.</li>
<li>Options volume increased throughout the week, peaking on Friday’s move lower.</li>
</ul>


A weekly recap of volatility and price metrics, covering option volumes, volatility trends, the spot/implied relationship, and open interest statistics.
USD/JPY and Nikkei moved in opposite directions, with the index underperforming its historical relationship to FX.
Options volume increased throughout the week, peaking on Friday’s move lower.


Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 24 – 28): Weak Finish Despite USD/JPY Strength

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Apr 07 – 11): Vol Spikes, Skew Steepens, Macro Shifts Unfold

Nikkei and USD/JPY re-test August levels, with implied vols surging. Market movements may be driven by factors beyond tariffs, as open interest at...

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Bounce: Setting Up for Tactical Shorts

The Nikkei 225 staged a strong rebound Tuesday, but tariff risks persist. This insight outlines key price targets to position SHORT (or cover LONG)...

Nico Rosti

Chart of the Day: Implied Volatility Soars Globally, US and Bitcoin Hit Hardest

Indian market remains stable amidst Asia-Pac decline, while Japan is the worst performer in the region. US sees largest drop, Gold outperforms...

Gaudenz Schneider