HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China biotech companies are “being squeezed” between the negative domestic policies and the dilemma of internationalization. The investment logic of biotech has broken and the valuation forecasts are ineffective.</li>
<li>For CXO, the uncertainties outweigh the certainties.Investors need to be prepared for the possibility of CXO not to return to its peak, because its best time may have been over.</li>
<li>We’re in a very complicated environment. A lot of things come together. Survive first. Seize rebounds after plunge rather than go bottom fishing. You don't know when the bottom is. </li>
</ul>


China biotech companies are “being squeezed” between the negative domestic policies and the dilemma of internationalization. The investment logic of biotech has broken and the valuation forecasts are ineffective.
For CXO, the uncertainties outweigh the certainties.Investors need to be prepared for the possibility of CXO not to return to its peak, because its best time may have been over.
We’re in a very complicated environment. A lot of things come together. Survive first. Seize rebounds after plunge rather than go bottom fishing. You don't know when the bottom is. 


Re-Examine the Outlook and Investment Strategy for China Biotech and CXO

<ul>
<li>The development trajectory of Japanese pharmaceutical companies could be a good reference for Chinese pharmaceutical companies. Their “solution” is innovation + internationalization.</li>
<li>We further analyzed the impact of Shanghai lockdown to Pharma and CXOs. In the context of intensifying global confrontation, resource shortage and soaring costs, the priority of healthcare may decline.</li>
<li>At the current stage, biotech companies could be divided into the following categories, and it is very interesting.</li>
</ul>


The development trajectory of Japanese pharmaceutical companies could be a good reference for Chinese pharmaceutical companies. Their “solution” is innovation + internationalization.
We further analyzed the impact of Shanghai lockdown to Pharma and CXOs. In the context of intensifying global confrontation, resource shortage and soaring costs, the priority of healthcare may decline.
At the current stage, biotech companies could be divided into the following categories, and it is very interesting.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.29)-SH Lockdown Impact on Pharma/CXO,China Biotech Categories & Way Out

Equity Bottom-Up

Sino Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As the “the king of generics”, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> is lucky to have three “golden eggs”(Entecavir, Anlotinib, CoronaVac) to contribute huge performance over the years.</li>
<li>The promotion of VBP and fierce competition make Sino Biopharmaceutical's products lose pricing power. Due to little revolutionary technology/slow product iteration/weak R&amp;D, it’s unlikely to have another Anlotinib level asset.</li>
<li>The Company's development mode, the mindset of management, and other concerns could be more serious problems, causing investors to distrust the management level and preventing it from getting high valuation.</li>
</ul>


As the “the king of generics”, Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) is lucky to have three “golden eggs”(Entecavir, Anlotinib, CoronaVac) to contribute huge performance over the years.
The promotion of VBP and fierce competition make Sino Biopharmaceutical's products lose pricing power. Due to little revolutionary technology/slow product iteration/weak R&amp;D, it’s unlikely to have another Anlotinib level asset.
The Company's development mode, the mindset of management, and other concerns could be more serious problems, causing investors to distrust the management level and preventing it from getting high valuation.


Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177.HK) - Three “Golden Eggs” and the Risks Behind

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Simcere Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simcere-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29186:1" rel="noopener">Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK)</a> reported an 11% y/y revenue growth to RMB5 billion, mainly driven by 54% y/y revenue growth from innovative pharmaceuticals.</li>
<li>However, gross margin contracted 160 basis point to 78.4%, reflecting pricing headwind. Heavy R&amp;D and selling and distribution expenses are taking toll on operating profit.</li>
<li>During 2021, Simcere has added six registered clinical trials for phase 3, two trails for phase 2, three trails for phase 1, and obtained 12 clinical trial approvals for drugs.</li>
</ul>



Simcere Pharmaceutical Group (2096 HK) reported an 11% y/y revenue growth to RMB5 billion, mainly driven by 54% y/y revenue growth from innovative pharmaceuticals.
However, gross margin contracted 160 basis point to 78.4%, reflecting pricing headwind. Heavy R&amp;D and selling and distribution expenses are taking toll on operating profit.
During 2021, Simcere has added six registered clinical trials for phase 3, two trails for phase 2, three trails for phase 1, and obtained 12 clinical trial approvals for drugs.


Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK): Double-Digit Topline Growth; Margin Deteriorating Spoils the Party

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> is increasingly focusing on innovative drug, with revenue from such drugs contributing 42% of total revenue in 2021. R&amp;D accounted for 18% of revenue in 2021.</li>
<li>Thus far, in this year, Hansoh received approval for one more new rare-disease drug. Its rich pipeline has 25+ clinical programs of innovative drugs.</li>
<li>With its proven execution on innovative portfolio, sound financial positions, and recent business collaboration effort to enrich the pipeline, Hansoh seems to be an undervalued business.</li>
</ul>



Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) is increasingly focusing on innovative drug, with revenue from such drugs contributing 42% of total revenue in 2021. R&amp;D accounted for 18% of revenue in 2021.
Thus far, in this year, Hansoh received approval for one more new rare-disease drug. Its rich pipeline has 25+ clinical programs of innovative drugs.
With its proven execution on innovative portfolio, sound financial positions, and recent business collaboration effort to enrich the pipeline, Hansoh seems to be an undervalued business.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Bottom-Fishing Idea; Market Is Overlooking Innovative Portfolio

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

Re-Examine the Outlook and Investment Strategy for China Biotech and CXO

The investment logic of China biotech has broken due to dilemma of domestic policy and internationalization risk.CXO couldn't sustain high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.29)-SH Lockdown Impact on Pharma/CXO,China Biotech Categories & Way Out

We analyzed the impact of lockdown to Pharma and CXO, worrying the priority of healthcare may decline.China biotech can be divided into some...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang