HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Sino Biopharmaceutical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.</li>
<li>GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.</li>
<li>In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.</li>
</ul>


The biggest changes in 2023 medical insurance catalog are the lifting of payment restrictions on TCM injections, which would drive rapid sales growth in the hospital market this year.
GLP-1s are not flawless, and patients will lose not only fat but also muscle during weight-loss process. Then, another noteworthy opportunity has emerged - reduce fat and increase muscle.
In 2024, Sino Biopharm is expected to achieve single-digit revenue growth. Deficiencies in corporate governance are one reason why the market is reluctant to offer Sino Biopharm high valuation.


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. </li>
<li>Heavy-Weights like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a> are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.</li>
</ul>


Surging by 19.4% since the trough on 19-Apr, the HSI is now only 3.2% shy away from the psychological resistance of 20,000. We look at some potential profit-taking names. 
Heavy-Weights like Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) are among the best-performing ones YTD and since the trough. Hence they are more exposed, particularly for Meituan.

Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) and ENN Energy (2688 HK) are another two on the list. Their valuations are no longer inexpensive relative to 3-year earnings CAGR.


HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>From peak allocations of over 8% at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, China &amp; HK Health Care allocations have fallen back in to their long-term range</li>
<li>Greater China managers have actively rebalanced portfolios away from China &amp; HK Health Care over the last 6-months, with Taiwan Tech the key beneficiary</li>
<li>Venus MedTech and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine led the exodus, but it wasn't completely one-sided, with Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics and Aier Eye Hospital Group capturing new investment from Greater China managers.</li>
</ul>


From peak allocations of over 8% at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, China &amp; HK Health Care allocations have fallen back in to their long-term range
Greater China managers have actively rebalanced portfolios away from China &amp; HK Health Care over the last 6-months, with Taiwan Tech the key beneficiary
Venus MedTech and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine led the exodus, but it wasn't completely one-sided, with Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics and Aier Eye Hospital Group capturing new investment from Greater China managers.


Greater China Funds: China Health Care Reversal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).</li>
<li>The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). </li>
<li>There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   </li>
</ul>



Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)'s pre-conditional privatisation from Sunshine Lake Pharma comprises scrip (0.263614 new offeror H Share per HEC CJ Pharma share) and cash (special dividend of HK$1.5).
The pre-condition is regulatory approvals from NDRC, MOFCOM, and SAFE. The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). 
There is valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, with no shareholder close to a blocking stake, the deal should get up.   


HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Payment policy relaxation will drive rapid sales growth of TCM injection.GLP-1 has defects-patients will lose not only fat but also muscle. Mr...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Greater China Funds: China Health Care Reversal

Greater China managers have actively rebalanced portfolios away from China & HK Health Care over the last 6-months, with Taiwan Tech the key...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.6) - Boom of TCM Injections Is Coming, Defects in GLP-1s, Sino Biopharm

Payment policy relaxation will drive rapid sales growth of TCM injection.GLP-1 has defects-patients will lose not only fat but also muscle. Mr...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK Strategy: To Sell or Not to Sell, that Is the Question

​HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Greater China Funds: China Health Care Reversal

Greater China managers have actively rebalanced portfolios away from China & HK Health Care over the last 6-months, with Taiwan Tech the key...

Steven Holden

HEC CJ Pharma (1558 HK): Pre-Conditional Share Exchange Offer from Largest Shareholder

There is scrip valuation uncertainty as the offeror is unlisted, and its valuation hinges on pipeline products. Nevertheless, the deal should get...

Arun George

HSI surges by 19.4% nearing the 20,000 resistance, potential profit-taking names include Meituan, Tencent, Haidilao, and ENN Energy due to strong...