Consumer: 4Q25 Preview: Steady Revenue Growth, Margins Gradually Improving (OVERWEIGHT)
The revenue growth is mainly supported by ICBP and MYOR, while we also expect GPM recovery in 4Q25 on normalization in soft commodity prices.
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Consumer: Higher Wage and Fiscal Tailwinds Support Intact; Decent Dec25 Sales Indication
The FY26 national avg min wage hike of +5.7% yoy should provide support to consumption despite it being slightly lower than FY25.
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Consumer: FY26 Outlook: Fiscal Acceleration and Potentially Higher Wage Hikes to Support Consumption
We expect FY26 purchasing power to improve gradually on expansionary fiscal measures, stronger social assistance and higher min. wages.
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Macro Strategy: 2026: Reassessing the Investment Cycle
Manufacturing-led FDI now anchors investment growth, lifting GFCF and widening regional benefit with Ex-Java areas benefiting the most.
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Macro Strategy: Growth Over Differentials
Indonesia’s economy maintained solid momentum in 3Q25, recording 5.04% y-y (1.43% q-q) growth, although slightly easing from 2Q25’s 5.12%.
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