Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media. </li>
<li>2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ. </li>
<li>Some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.</li>
</ul>


Samsung doesn’t provide guidance when it reports, but gives revenue an operating profit guidance ~2 weeks before reporting. But we have an officially non-official preview in Korean media. 
2Q25 operating profit will be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. Consensus expects +1% QoQ. 
Some positive news to counter balance this large disappointment – smartphone, HBM3E – I am skeptical any of these can lift profits in 2H25, revisit early 2026.


Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

<ul>
<li>Lisuan new GPU is a first step, but performance far behind AMD/Nvidia. Loongson new server CPU looks good, close to Intel chip of 2021. Major bottleneck remains SMIC 7nm capacity.</li>
<li>Qualcomm looks close to qualifying Samsung’s 2nm to manufacture Snapdragon 8 Elite 2. This would imply a major yield breakthru for Samsung.</li>
<li>Microsoft ARM CPU Maia is in production, but its AI accelerator Braga seems delayed significantly – either performance or an architecture rethink.</li>
</ul>


Lisuan new GPU is a first step, but performance far behind AMD/Nvidia. Loongson new server CPU looks good, close to Intel chip of 2021. Major bottleneck remains SMIC 7nm capacity.
Qualcomm looks close to qualifying Samsung’s 2nm to manufacture Snapdragon 8 Elite 2. This would imply a major yield breakthru for Samsung.
Microsoft ARM CPU Maia is in production, but its AI accelerator Braga seems delayed significantly – either performance or an architecture rethink.


Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

<ul>
<li>US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.</li>
<li>What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   </li>
<li>Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. </li>
</ul>


US tightening the screws on Foreign-owned Semi production in China: Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC were exempted from import license. The risk of US removing Equipment license is known since 2022.
What’s the point? Negotiating tool in the ongoing US-China discussions? Increase uncertainty? Or maybe US unhappy about further Korean investments in China?   
Samsung has 35% of DRAM production in China, SK Hynix 40% of DRAM and NAND, TSMC a negligible 3% of total revenues. Samsung has kept upgrading capacity in China. 


US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes... <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/samsung-electronics-005930-ks-tactical-outlook-amid-rumored-phase-2-buyback-confirmation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%....</a>
</li>
<li>Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.</li>
<li>Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been range-bound since October 2024, its chart pattern echoing a flat EKG with brief spikes... we suggested to BUY on May 20th, now up +7%....

Still, maybe something is changing, the stock is about to reach a reversal point, it will pullback soon, but it may be a brief, buy-the-dip opportunity, possibly before a rally.
Our price and time models currently indicate there is considerable resistance to rally higher: this week may be the last one up before the pullback.


Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

<ul>
<li>Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. </li>
<li>Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share </li>
<li>AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. </li>
</ul>


Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. 
Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share 
AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. 


SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Nicolas Baratte

Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

Nicolas Baratte

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

Nico Rosti

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Samsung 2Q25 Official Leaks: Sharp Decline in Operating Profits, but It’s the Bottom. Really?

​Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Nicolas Baratte

Chips News: GPU, CPU in China. Qualcomm Going to Samsung Maybe, Microsoft Accelerator Delayed.

​Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

Nicolas Baratte

US Tightening the Screws on Sales of Semi Production Equipment to Foreign-Owned Fabs in China

​US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Nicolas Baratte

Is Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Quietly Starting to Take Off?

​Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

Nico Rosti

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

​Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...

Nicolas Baratte

Samsung's 2Q25 operating profit to decline by over 15% from Q1, Consensus expects +1%. Some positive news but skepticism about profit lift in 2H25.

Lisuan's new GPU lags behind AMD/Nvidia, Loongson's server CPU competitive vs Intel, SMIC's 7nm capacity a bottleneck. Qualcomm may use Samsung's...

US tightening restrictions on foreign-owned semiconductor production in China, exempting Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC from import licenses. Samsung and...

Samsung Electronics has been range-bound since Oct 2024, but since May 20th we suggested it could take off. Now the stock is short-term...

Slower outlook for semiconductor equipment industry due to China slowdown, TSMC uncertainty, and export licenses. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and...