Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Semiconductor sector and Global Technology. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the Global Tech supply chain. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

CHIPS Act Money For Equity Stake, Pay For China Play? For Goodness Sake!

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC's US Fabs On a Roll; Why Intel Should Invest in UMC; The Big SPE Reset

Intel's Historic Agreement Or Moment Of Surrender?

KLAC Q324. Heavy Emphasis On Leading Edge For Growth In 2025

LRCX. Cautiously Optimistic For Growth & WFE Outperformance in 2025 & Beyond

Tech News This Week: TSMC, NVIDIA, Samsung, Legacy Semi, China Semi

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. </li>
<li>Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share </li>
<li>AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. </li>
</ul>


Guided down: ASML, Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron. Revised up: LAM. A number of reasons are mentioned for a slower outlook. China slowdown. TSMC lumpy. Export licenses. Geo-Globo uncertainty. 
Yes, But: 1) Chinese firms bought too much equipment in 2022-24  2) Logic Capex of Intel Samsung will decline further  3) Chinese SPE vendors are gaining share 
AI is real, HBM is real, SOCAMM is real, but TSMC and SK Hynix are not revising up Capex in 2025. Expect higher Capex in 2026 and 2027. 


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem

KLA-Tencor Corp

SPE – Semi Production Equipment: The Big Reset Is Happening. SPE Firms Expectations Is the Problem