Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron reported FQ3’23 revenues of $3.8 billion, up 2% sequentially and down 57% year-over-year.</li>
<li>Despite upbeat AI notes among others, Micron quietly delivered more bad news than good with their overall outlook worsening in many key respects. </li>
<li>In the company's own words, "Profitability and cash flow will remain extremely challenged for some time". For "some time", you could insert "at least 12 months"</li>
</ul>


Micron reported FQ3’23 revenues of $3.8 billion, up 2% sequentially and down 57% year-over-year.
Despite upbeat AI notes among others, Micron quietly delivered more bad news than good with their overall outlook worsening in many key respects. 
In the company's own words, "Profitability and cash flow will remain extremely challenged for some time". For "some time", you could insert "at least 12 months"


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Asia Ex-Japan investors move from underweight to a record overweight in Samsung Electronics</li>
<li>Samsung has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation over the last 6-months alongside BYD, Trip Com and Meituan.</li>
<li>Majority of funds positioned overweight with a record 81.4% of funds holding a position.  Samsung becomes one of the highest conviction holdings in the Asia Ex-Japan region.</li>
</ul>


Asia Ex-Japan investors move from underweight to a record overweight in Samsung Electronics
Samsung has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation over the last 6-months alongside BYD, Trip Com and Meituan.
Majority of funds positioned overweight with a record 81.4% of funds holding a position.  Samsung becomes one of the highest conviction holdings in the Asia Ex-Japan region.


Samsung Electronics:  Return of the King

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung Display still holds a 5.85% stake. Hankyung reported that this remaining stake would also be disposed of in the future.</li>
<li>Then the key lies in timing. Considering the ongoing pattern of block deals being exposed during the pre-sounding phase, we may be able to capture clues for preemptive trading.</li>
<li>As seen from the chart depicting SFA's loan balance and the percentage of short-selling to daily TV, we can observe a significant increase in activity just before today's sale event.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Display still holds a 5.85% stake. Hankyung reported that this remaining stake would also be disposed of in the future.
Then the key lies in timing. Considering the ongoing pattern of block deals being exposed during the pre-sounding phase, we may be able to capture clues for preemptive trading.
As seen from the chart depicting SFA's loan balance and the percentage of short-selling to daily TV, we can observe a significant increase in activity just before today's sale event.


Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung's Next Stake Sale

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

<ul>
<li>Yageo has been relatively range-bound since early 2023E, missing completely the 'AI Rally' that caused many other Taiwan names to rise. Hence one can buy it without chasing hype.</li>
<li>We spoke with management. The company has historically enjoyed durable margins and we believe could enjoy a cycle turn-around as its products are linked to high-tech power needs.</li>
<li>While not directly linked to AI demand, its products have strong long-term demand dynamics and are necessary for AI servers, high-end computing, autos, defense, and communications. Structural Long, NT$690 target.</li>
</ul>


Yageo has been relatively range-bound since early 2023E, missing completely the 'AI Rally' that caused many other Taiwan names to rise. Hence one can buy it without chasing hype.
We spoke with management. The company has historically enjoyed durable margins and we believe could enjoy a cycle turn-around as its products are linked to high-tech power needs.
While not directly linked to AI demand, its products have strong long-term demand dynamics and are necessary for AI servers, high-end computing, autos, defense, and communications. Structural Long, NT$690 target.


Yageo: Left Behind By the 'AI Rally', But Robust Business Still Tied to Strong Power/EV Drivers

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Micron results this week; will give a key readthrough for Nanya Tech. The latest memory chip pricing data implies it was another tough quarter.</li>
<li>Hon Hai's break out continues, with the shares achieving a new 52-week high. The company's new JV with automaker Stellantis may finally be winning over naysayers.</li>
<li>AI Leaders Basket: TSMC and ASML have substantially lagged Nvidia and could serve as AI-exposure alternatives to chasing Nvidia's rally.</li>
</ul>


Micron results this week; will give a key readthrough for Nanya Tech. The latest memory chip pricing data implies it was another tough quarter.
Hon Hai's break out continues, with the shares achieving a new 52-week high. The company's new JV with automaker Stellantis may finally be winning over naysayers.
AI Leaders Basket: TSMC and ASML have substantially lagged Nvidia and could serve as AI-exposure alternatives to chasing Nvidia's rally.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Key for Nanya; Hon Hai New 52-Week High; AI Leaders Basket

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

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Samsung Electronics Pref Shares (005935 KS)

Micron. Clutching At AI Straws

FQ3’23 revenues $3.8 billion, + 2% QoQ & -57% YoY. Micron: "Profitability and cash flow will remain extremely challenged for some time". For "some...

William Keating

Samsung Electronics: Return of the King

After a brief flirt with underweight in late 2022, active Asia Ex-Japan managers rotate back in to Samsung Electronics, pushing allocations towards...

Steven Holden

Preemptive Short Position Buildup on SFA Engineering for Samsung's Next Stake Sale

This post discusses the anticipatory short position accumulation on SFA Engineering in preparation for Samsung Display's upcoming stake sale, which...

Sanghyun Park

Yageo: Left Behind By the 'AI Rally', But Robust Business Still Tied to Strong Power/EV Drivers

We spoke with management. Opportunity to acquire a stock with strong fundamentals... Without having to chase a hyped-up share price.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Results Key for Nanya; Hon Hai New 52-Week High; AI Leaders Basket

Hon Hai's break out continues, with the shares achieving a new 52-week high. The company's new JV with automaker Stellantis may finally be winning...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

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