HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.</li>
<li>Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.</li>
<li>The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  </li>
</ul>


Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ascentage-pharma-group-inter" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27824:1" rel="noopener">Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK)</a> (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via  top-up placement.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, with none of the deals having done well. Although stock momentum has been strong this year.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK) (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via  top-up placement.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, with none of the deals having done well. Although stock momentum has been strong this year.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Ascentage Pharma Top-Up Placement - Past Deals Didn't Done Well, Stock up a Lot but Sector Is Strong

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 11th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 11th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB, Pop Mart Intl, Tencent, China Mobile.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 11th): Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 11th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 11th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 11th): Tencent, AIA, Wuxi Biologics

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 4th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kingsoft (3888 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 4th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kingsoft (3888 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 4th): Tencent, AIA, Kingsoft

China

WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc. is a leading open-access R&D capability and technology platform company serving the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries, with operations in China, U.S., and Iceland.  We provide a broad and integrated portfolio of laboratory and manufacturing services throughout the drug and medical device R&D process.  Our services are designed to help our global partners in shortening the cycle and lowering the cost of drug and medical device R&D through cost-effective and efficient solutions. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)

Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook

The Placing price of HK$68.6 has priced in successful licensing deal of APG-2575. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation. Biotech sector...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Ascentage Pharma Top-Up Placement - Past Deals Didn't Done Well, Stock up a Lot but Sector Is Strong

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp (6855 HK) (AP) aims to raise around US$196m via top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Jul 11th): Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba, CMB

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, CCB, SMIC, Li Auto, Zhongan Online, Alibaba,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 11th): Tencent, AIA, Wuxi Biologics

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 4th): Tencent, AIA, Kingsoft

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Tencent (700 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)