HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Over 15 years' experience in both finance and healthcare, covering clinic operations, investment and equity research in both China and overseas.

China Healthcare Weekly (Jul.27)-The Turning Point of Tigermed and CRO, Everest Medicines’ Placement

What Happens to China Healthcare? - The Soaring Shares, the Turning Point, and the Top Picks

China TCM (570.HK) - About the 25H1 Profit Warning and the Outlook

Pre-IPO Busy Ming Group - Concerns Behind the High Growth

Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Baige Online Digital Technology - The Business Model and the Risks Behind

Pre-IPO Mabwell (Shanghai) Bioscience - The ADC Technology Is Outdated

Equity Capital Markets

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.</li>
<li>Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.</li>
<li>The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  </li>
</ul>


Our forecast is sales of olverembatinib in 2025 could reach RMB500mn. APG-2575 is better than Sonrotoclax in ORR/safety profile, but global commercialization success is not simply determined by clinical data.
Placing price of HK$68.6/share has priced in the successful licensing deal of APG-2575 to some extent, which however is not a done deal. US$1.5-2.375bn is a more reasonable valuation range.
The big rally in biotech sector is not based on fundamental inflection point. The driving mentality behind the valuation bubble this time has a more obvious nature of “short-term gambling”.  


Ascentage Pharma (6855.HK) Placement - Thoughts on The Placing Price and the Outlook