Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-1">The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. </div></div><div><div id="annotable-executive_summary-2"></div></div><div><p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.</p></div><div><p>Companies covered include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/britannia-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16495:1" rel="noopener">Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dabur-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1" rel="noopener">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-unilever-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13828:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a></p></div>

The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on the Demand environment, Business performance, Consumer behaviour, Pricing action, Gross margins, commodity inflation &amp; Inventory, Advertising spends, Marketshare movements, New launches, Capex and PLI, Online and D2C, International business and exports and Future outlook.Companies covered include Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) / Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Geojit BNP Paribas

Geojit

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Dabur India Ltd (Dabur), a leading Indian FMCG company, is a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal/Ayurvedic products. The company operates through Health Supplements, Digestives, Shampoos, Hair...</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Dabur India Ltd (Dabur), a leading Indian FMCG company, is a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal/Ayurvedic products. The company operates through Health Supplements, Digestives, Shampoos, Hair...Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur India Ltd: Resilient Performance in a Tough Quarter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

<p>About the stock: Dabur is one of the bigger FMCG companies with a presence in Ayurveda based products across categories. The company has a dominant market share in health supplement, OTC &amp; ethical products, hair oils &amp; juices. Moreover, it is continuously gaining market share in the oral care category.</p><ul><li>The company has a total distribution reach of 6.9 million retail outlets with direct reach of 1.3 million outlets. It is expected to increase direct distribution to 1.5 million outlets in the next two years</li><li>Dabur also derives ~50% of its sales through rural regions with a presence in 60,000 villages, which would increase to 80,000 villages in next two years</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

About the stock: Dabur is one of the bigger FMCG companies with a presence in Ayurveda based products across categories. The company has a dominant market share in health supplement, OTC &amp; ethical products, hair oils &amp; juices. Moreover, it is continuously gaining market share in the oral care category.The company has a total distribution reach of 6.9 million retail outlets with direct reach of 1.3 million outlets. It is expected to increase direct distribution to 1.5 million outlets in the next two yearsDabur also derives ~50% of its sales through rural regions with a presence in 60,000 villages, which would increase to 80,000 villages in next two yearsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dabur India: Robust Volume Growth Across Categories

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

<p>HSIE Results Daily Dabur: Daburs Q1 performance was inspiring with a beat in revenue, volume and EBITDA. Revenue growth was at 32% YoY (HSIE 22%), 2-year CAGR at 7%. Domestic revenue/volume growth were at 35/34% YoY, 2-year CAGR at 12/10% vs. Britannias 12/13%, Nestles 8/6%, Maricos 7/2%, Colgates 4/0%, Emamis 3/2% and HULs 2/0%. Daburs healthcare/HPC/F&amp;B; grew 30/26/80% YoY (vs. +29/-15/-34% in Q1FY21 and +23/+33/+28% in Q4FY21). The international business saw continued recovery, growing 29% YoY.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

HSIE Results Daily Dabur: Daburs Q1 performance was inspiring with a beat in revenue, volume and EBITDA. Revenue growth was at 32% YoY (HSIE 22%), 2-year CAGR at 7%. Domestic revenue/volume growth were at 35/34% YoY, 2-year CAGR at 12/10% vs. Britannias 12/13%, Nestles 8/6%, Maricos 7/2%, Colgates 4/0%, Emamis 3/2% and HULs 2/0%. Daburs healthcare/HPC/F&amp;B; grew 30/26/80% YoY (vs. +29/-15/-34% in Q1FY21 and +23/+33/+28% in Q4FY21). The international business saw continued recovery, growing 29% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Dabur, Godrej Properties, Alkyl Amines and More

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.</p><p>More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. There could be more changes if some large stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vedanta-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:514:1" rel="noopener">Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN)</a> does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.</p><p>Passive funds benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a>. Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/info-edge-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14461:1" rel="noopener">Info Edge India (INFOE IN)</a> trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-oil-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7781:1" rel="noopener">Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN)</a> trades at a discount to its domestic peers.</p><p>The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-green-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29012:1" rel="noopener">Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dmart" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23656:1" rel="noopener">Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN)</a> in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.</p>

The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) is the flagship index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE). The index has 50 stocks and is a free float weighted market cap index. The next rebalance will be effective after the close of trading on 29 September 2021 and the announcement of the changes will be made four weeks prior to the effective date.More than a third of the way through the review period that runs from February to July, we see one possible change to the index with Info Edge India (INFOE IN) replacing Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). There could be more changes if some large stocks like Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) are included in the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) does not make the cut for index inclusion following the 10% reduction in its free float following the open offer.Passive funds benchmarked to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) will need to trade around 3 days of ADV on Info Edge India (INFOE IN) and Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN). Plus there will be flow from active funds and from cash and carry baskets on the index.Info Edge India (INFOE IN) trades at a valuation premium to its regional peers, while Indian Oil Corp (IOCL IN) trades at a discount to its domestic peers.The big event to watch for is the potential inclusion of Adani Green Energy Ltd (ADANIGR IN) and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMART IN) in the F&amp;O segment that will open the door for index inclusion.

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

India

Dabur India Ltd. manufactures soaps, detergents, hair oils, tooth powders, antacids and processed foods. The Company sells its products worldwide.

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Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Staples - BRIT, DABUR, HUVR, MRCO

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Britannia Industries (BRIT IN) / Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN) / Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN) /...

Pranav Bhavsar

Dabur India Ltd: Resilient Performance in a Tough Quarter

Dabur India Ltd (Dabur), a leading Indian FMCG company, is a world leader in Ayurveda with a portfolio of over 250 Herbal/Ayurvedic products. The...

Geojit

Dabur India: Robust Volume Growth Across Categories

Dabur is one of the bigger FMCG companies with a presence in Ayurveda based products across categories. The company has a dominant market share in...

ICICI Securities Limited

HSIE Results Daily: Dabur, Godrej Properties, Alkyl Amines and More

Dabur: Daburs Q1 performance was inspiring with a beat in revenue, volume and EBITDA. Revenue growth was at 32% YoY (HSIE 22%), 2-year CAGR at 7%....

HDFC Securities

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Info Edge Could Replace IOC

We see one potential changes to the NIFTY50 index at the September review. Adani Green and Avenue Supermarts could join the index if listed F&O are...

Brian Freitas

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