IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a> has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caocao-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:189909" rel="noopener">CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caocao-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:190152" rel="noopener">CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.</li>
</ul>



CaoCao (2643 HK) has launched its IPO to raise US$236 million at HK$41.94 per share. The shares will be listed on 25 June.
I previously discussed the IPO in CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case and CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price. Therefore, avoid the IPO.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH)</a> is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/caocao-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:189909" rel="noopener">CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case</a>, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on low net take rates, unfavourable trends of key cost items, expected losses in the current year and a stretched balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
In CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on low net take rates, unfavourable trends of key cost items, expected losses in the current year and a stretched balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH)</a> is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.   </li>
<li>CaoCao was incubated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>. Geely founder Li Shufu owns 83.9% of CaoCao.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on accelerating GTV growth, the improving fundamentals of the core business, reducing losses and shifting to cash generation. </li>
</ul>



CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.   
CaoCao was incubated by Geely Auto (175 HK). Geely founder Li Shufu owns 83.9% of CaoCao.
The bull case rests on accelerating GTV growth, the improving fundamentals of the core business, reducing losses and shifting to cash generation. 


Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Didi reported solid top-line growth, improving core margins (and OpCF) in Q125</li>
<li>Drivers of Q125 top-line growth were broad-based, but note F/X impact on International</li>
<li>We believe Didi should move to re-list shares while earnings &amp; conditions are supportive</li>
</ul>


Didi reported solid top-line growth, improving core margins (and OpCF) in Q125
Drivers of Q125 top-line growth were broad-based, but note F/X impact on International
We believe Didi should move to re-list shares while earnings &amp; conditions are supportive


Didi Global Q125 Results | Company Should Move to List Shares While Earnings & Conditions Favorable

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment</li>
<li>Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too</li>
<li>Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors' close attention</li>
</ul>


FY24 revenue growth of 19% solid, but mostly driven by one operating segment
Gross margin in FY24 fell on mix, but platform monetization down, too
Sharp growth in FY24 working capital requires investors' close attention


Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

United States

Lyft, Inc. provides online ridesharing services. The Company offers ride booking, payment processing, and car transportation services. Lyft serves customers in the United States.

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Lyft (LYFT US)

CaoCao IPO (2643 HK): Valuation Insights

In this note, I present my forecasts and discuss valuation. My analysis suggests that CaoCao is at best fairly valued at the offer price....

Arun George

CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case

CaoCao is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China and is seeking to raise US$200-300 million. In this note, I discuss the key elements of...

Arun George

CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case

CaoCao is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China and is seeking to raise US$200-300 million. In this note, I discuss the key elements of...

Arun George

Didi Global Q125 Results | Company Should Move to List Shares While Earnings & Conditions Favorable

Didi Global reported another set of strong earnings results last week. We believe the company should move forward with plans to re-list shares...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech IPO | Review of FY24 Financials & OpStats | Mostly Solid Numbers | Plus a Few Questions

Lalatech's latest IPO application in Hong Kong shows solid FY24 growth, but we identify three key issues that deserve investors' attention.

Tracking Traffic

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