Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers</li>
<li>The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24</li>
<li>The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data at Hang Seng Bank suggests a greater deterioration in both HK and China than is readily visible in headline numbers
The bank's China pre-tax profit is down 70% YoY in 1H24 and its total stage 3 loans are up 84% YoY in 1H24
The bank's credit-impaired loans for Hong Kong CRE rose from HKD1,081m to HKD13,485m, from 2H23 to 1H24


Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>Chinese banks are under strain as their deposits shrink in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on offering deposit rates higher than regulatory caps.</li><li>In the first half of the year, many Chinese mainland-listed commercial banks saw a decline in their net cash flow generated from operating activities — a key indicator of lenders’ liquidity — Caixin calculations based on their interim reports show.</li><li>Among China’s “Big Six” state-owned banks by assets, only Postal Savings Bank of China Co.</li></ul>

Chinese banks are under strain as their deposits shrink in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on offering deposit rates higher than regulatory caps.In the first half of the year, many Chinese mainland-listed commercial banks saw a decline in their net cash flow generated from operating activities — a key indicator of lenders’ liquidity — Caixin calculations based on their interim reports show.Among China’s “Big Six” state-owned banks by assets, only Postal Savings Bank of China Co.

Chinese Banks’ Cash Flow Plummets After Crackdown on High Deposit Rates 

<ul>
<li>With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. </li>
<li>Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:659:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK)</a> shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans</li>
</ul>


With many real estate developers in China reporting losses, and with greater clarity of their woes, there should be flow through to banks. 
Generally, at the top line and in head line bad loans, this is simply not visible, so that one must look to notes to financial statements, other granular data.

Bank Of Communications Co H (3328 HK) shows restructured loans up from RMB41bn to RMB61bn in just six months, with many China banks showing far higher loss loans


China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank of China (601988 CH)

Hang Seng Bank - China Profit -70% YoY, Stage 3 Loans +84% YoY, HK CRE Impaired Loan +12.5x (Times)

Granular data for Hang Seng Bank provides a good window of underlying credit metrics in both Hong Kong and China, which may not be well visible in...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB, Zto Express, Xiaomi, AIA

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 6th and highlight short interest changes in Meituan, Hscei Etf, CCB,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chinese Banks’ Cash Flow Plummets After Crackdown on High Deposit Rates

Chinese banks are under strain as their deposits shrink in the wake of a regulatory crackdown on offering deposit rates higher than regulatory...

Caixin Global

China Banks - Losses at Developers, Notes to Financials at Some Banks, More Clear than Headlines

There are losses at China developers and some of this is new or losses are much higher. This is not fully reflected in headline figures at China...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta Sports, Tencent, Baba, CCB, Jd, Meituan

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 30th and highlight short interest changes in Trip.Com, Shk Ppt, Anta...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)