Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.</li>
<li>The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.</li>
<li>Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.</li>
</ul>


China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and manufacturing as top priorities.
The nation's banks will be instrumental in providing consumption financing to spur a virtual growth driver for the economy.  Easing monetary policies will be in addition to the trade-in programs.
Consumer in service sectors like e-commerce, travel &amp; tourism, healthcare, elderly care and AI will benefit from increasing consumption.  Local brands stand to gain market share against foreign competitors.


CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL</li>
<li>There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank</li>
<li>With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs</li>
</ul>


We focus on the worsening credit metrics at HSBC, especially where stage 2 loan growth is not being matched by ECL
There appears to be great deterioration in 3Q25 alone for its HK and CH commercial real estate lending, just as it raises its investment in Hang Seng Bank
With migration from stage 2 to stage 3 in some regions being likely, there is every likelihood that HSBC will see continued high growth in credit costs


HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
<li>
Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.</li>
</ul>



Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI).

Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.

Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.


BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: Index heavyweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (HSBA LN)</a> is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.</li>
<li>
Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.</li>
<li>
Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.</li>
</ul>



Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.

Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.

Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.


HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 10th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Bidu, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Pop Mart Intl, Hang Seng Bank, Xiaomi.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 10th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Bidu, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Pop Mart Intl, Hang Seng Bank, Xiaomi.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Bidu, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Pop Mart Intl, Hang Seng Bank, Xiaomi

China

Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, foreign currency transaction, fund settlement, and other services. Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Bank of China (601988 CH)

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

With 3Q25 results out just over 1 hour ago, we can see clearly, major deterioration in credit metrics, especially stage 2 loans and relative growth...

Daniel Tabbush

BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Spot the Swing: Some of Hong Kong’s biggest names — HSBC, Ping An, Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank, BYD, and AIA Group — report this...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Short Interest Weekly: Bidu, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Pop Mart Intl, Hang Seng Bank, Xiaomi

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 10th and highlight short interest changes in Bidu, Hua Hong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CHINA HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION: Unlocking Growth Potential in Five-Year Plan

China has announced that it will significantly boost the share of domestic consumption in its next five years, while maintaining tech and...

David Mudd

HSBC - 3Q25 Results Are Out, Major Deterioration in Credit Metrics

With 3Q25 results out just over 1 hour ago, we can see clearly, major deterioration in credit metrics, especially stage 2 loans and relative growth...

Daniel Tabbush

BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Spot the Swing: Some of Hong Kong’s biggest names — HSBC, Ping An, Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank, BYD, and AIA Group — report this...

Gaudenz Schneider

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

​HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Short Interest Weekly: Bidu, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Pop Mart Intl, Hang Seng Bank, Xiaomi

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 10th and highlight short interest changes in Bidu, Hua Hong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.