Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia has corrected 10%, propelled by Korea, Taiwan and Onshore China. AI capex anxiety, concerns about spike in inflation and interest rates and Middle East tensions are the main drivers.</li>
<li>Analysis of last 20 years' bear market shows that monetary policy tightening has been a regular feature of bear markets, unless severe macro-economic retrenchment (like in GFC) triggers the drawdown.</li>
<li>Asian policy rates are increasing but we don't think severe inflation spike is likely yet, unless the Iran war escalates sharply. We like materials, energy, AI "picks and shovels", financials.</li>
</ul>


Asia has corrected 10%, propelled by Korea, Taiwan and Onshore China. AI capex anxiety, concerns about spike in inflation and interest rates and Middle East tensions are the main drivers.
Analysis of last 20 years' bear market shows that monetary policy tightening has been a regular feature of bear markets, unless severe macro-economic retrenchment (like in GFC) triggers the drawdown.
Asian policy rates are increasing but we don't think severe inflation spike is likely yet, unless the Iran war escalates sharply. We like materials, energy, AI "picks and shovels", financials.


Asian Equities: Not a Forthcoming Collapse; Inflation and Rates the Key Issues

<ul>
<li>Asian earnings estimates are being revised up stupendously. Over past 6 months, 2026 consensus EPS is up 16%. 63 market-sectors out of 159 saw upgrades, vs 30 few months ago.</li>
<li>While the main drivers are Korean and Taiwanese tech, the spill-over from tech into consumption sentiment and investment propensity are visible. Korean retail, financials, Taiwanese financials have had significant upgrades.</li>
<li>The pedestrian upgrade to China's EPS and the downgrade to Hong Kong's are surprising. Our preferences remain on Korean tech, industrials, defense, financials, Taiwanese tech, Chinese basic materials, HK financials.</li>
</ul>


Asian earnings estimates are being revised up stupendously. Over past 6 months, 2026 consensus EPS is up 16%. 63 market-sectors out of 159 saw upgrades, vs 30 few months ago.
While the main drivers are Korean and Taiwanese tech, the spill-over from tech into consumption sentiment and investment propensity are visible. Korean retail, financials, Taiwanese financials have had significant upgrades.
The pedestrian upgrade to China's EPS and the downgrade to Hong Kong's are surprising. Our preferences remain on Korean tech, industrials, defense, financials, Taiwanese tech, Chinese basic materials, HK financials.


Asian Equities: The Earnings Juggernaut Is Rolling on and Getting Broad-Based

<ul>
<li>In March till date, FIIs have sold an enormous US$58.6bn of Asian equities - the highest ever monthly sale - US$26bn in Taiwan, US$20.25bn in Korea and US$12.3bn in India.</li>
<li>On 6-monthly cumulative buying/selling as proportion of market cap, Asia is near its "most-sold" level. The ongoing Middle-East conflict could drive more selling, but Asia is rapidly entering oversold territory.</li>
<li>Korea is oversold, Taiwan is nearly there and India is not quite in oversold territory. ASEAN markets are far from oversold, implying that they could see lot more FII selling.</li>
</ul>


In March till date, FIIs have sold an enormous US$58.6bn of Asian equities - the highest ever monthly sale - US$26bn in Taiwan, US$20.25bn in Korea and US$12.3bn in India.
On 6-monthly cumulative buying/selling as proportion of market cap, Asia is near its "most-sold" level. The ongoing Middle-East conflict could drive more selling, but Asia is rapidly entering oversold territory.
Korea is oversold, Taiwan is nearly there and India is not quite in oversold territory. ASEAN markets are far from oversold, implying that they could see lot more FII selling.


Asian Equities: Getting into Oversold Territory, After Heaviest Ever Monthly FII Selling in March

<ul>
<li>The resilience of Asian earnings is surprising.  Consensus 2026 EPS estimate of Asia-ex-Japan (Factset Market Index) is up 3% over the past month and 10% over the past 3 months.</li>
<li>29 market-sectors have had robust upgrades over 1-month, 3-month and 6-month timeframes. Energy and basic materials and the prominent AI beneficiaries, Korean and Taiwanese tech, figure prominently among earnings gainers.</li>
<li>Among the earnings winners, nine sectors have declined significantly since the beginning of the war. The HK/Chinese, Korean and Indonesian basic materials and Korean financials and Thai communications stand out.</li>
</ul>


The resilience of Asian earnings is surprising.  Consensus 2026 EPS estimate of Asia-ex-Japan (Factset Market Index) is up 3% over the past month and 10% over the past 3 months.
29 market-sectors have had robust upgrades over 1-month, 3-month and 6-month timeframes. Energy and basic materials and the prominent AI beneficiaries, Korean and Taiwanese tech, figure prominently among earnings gainers.
Among the earnings winners, nine sectors have declined significantly since the beginning of the war. The HK/Chinese, Korean and Indonesian basic materials and Korean financials and Thai communications stand out.


Asian Equities: Higher Earnings Estimates, Lower Stock Prices - Nine Notable Sectors

<ul>
<li>Since the beginning of the Iran War, the MSCI Asia ex Japan index has declined 12%. But remarkably, consensus EPS estimate for Asia ex Japan has increased 1.42%.</li>
<li>The earnings upgrades are led by Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan and China. Technology, energy, process industries and basic materials figure prominently among the top 20 sectors with upgrades.</li>
<li>Consumer services and retail figure prominently among the sectors with largest downgrades. Analysts seem complacent about disruption to tech hardware, process industries and basic materials from energy and input shortages.</li>
</ul>


Since the beginning of the Iran War, the MSCI Asia ex Japan index has declined 12%. But remarkably, consensus EPS estimate for Asia ex Japan has increased 1.42%.
The earnings upgrades are led by Korea, Indonesia, Taiwan and China. Technology, energy, process industries and basic materials figure prominently among the top 20 sectors with upgrades.
Consumer services and retail figure prominently among the sectors with largest downgrades. Analysts seem complacent about disruption to tech hardware, process industries and basic materials from energy and input shortages.


Asian Equities: Notwithstanding the Global Turmoil, EPS Estimates Are Surprisingly Strong

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

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Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

Asian Equities: Not a Forthcoming Collapse; Inflation and Rates the Key Issues

AI anxiety, inflation fear, Iran war driving Asia's drop. Monetary policy tightening triggers bear markets, but severe inflation unlikely unless...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: The Earnings Juggernaut Is Rolling on and Getting Broad-Based

Asian EPS est are soaring driven by KR & TW tech. CN had modest upgrade over past 6 months & HK was downgraded. Spill-over from tech into...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Getting into Oversold Territory, After Heaviest Ever Monthly FII Selling in March

As we expected, FIIs are buying back the oversold Asian markets. Till April 27, FIIs have bought $2.5 bn Korean equities & $12.25 bn Taiwanese...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Higher Earnings Estimates, Lower Stock Prices - Nine Notable Sectors

Asian earnings are remarkably resilient. Consensus 26 EPS est up 3% last month & 10% in past 3 months. Shares of 9 EPS gainers dropped sharply. HK...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Notwithstanding the Global Turmoil, EPS Estimates Are Surprisingly Strong

MXASJ has dived 12% during the Iran War. But Asian EPS est is up 1.42%, led by KR, Indo, TW, CN. Analysts are more worried abt demand destruction...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Equities: Not a Forthcoming Collapse; Inflation and Rates the Key Issues

AI anxiety, inflation fear, Iran war driving Asia's drop. Monetary policy tightening triggers bear markets, but severe inflation unlikely unless...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: The Earnings Juggernaut Is Rolling on and Getting Broad-Based

​Asian EPS est are soaring driven by KR & TW tech. CN had modest upgrade over past 6 months & HK was downgraded. Spill-over from tech into...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Getting into Oversold Territory, After Heaviest Ever Monthly FII Selling in March

As we expected, FIIs are buying back the oversold Asian markets. Till April 27, FIIs have bought $2.5 bn Korean equities & $12.25 bn Taiwanese...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Higher Earnings Estimates, Lower Stock Prices - Nine Notable Sectors

​Asian earnings are remarkably resilient. Consensus 26 EPS est up 3% last month & 10% in past 3 months. Shares of 9 EPS gainers dropped sharply. HK...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Notwithstanding the Global Turmoil, EPS Estimates Are Surprisingly Strong

​MXASJ has dived 12% during the Iran War. But Asian EPS est is up 1.42%, led by KR, Indo, TW, CN. Analysts are more worried abt demand destruction...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian EPS est are soaring driven by KR & TW tech. CN had modest upgrade over past 6 months & HK was downgraded. Spill-over from tech into...

Asian earnings are remarkably resilient. Consensus 26 EPS est up 3% last month & 10% in past 3 months. Shares of 9 EPS gainers dropped sharply. HK...

MXASJ has dived 12% during the Iran War. But Asian EPS est is up 1.42%, led by KR, Indo, TW, CN. Analysts are more worried abt demand destruction...