Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.</li>
<li>In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.


Tokyo Electron (TEL):  Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.</li>
<li>Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.</li>
<li>Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card's value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.
Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.
Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card's value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.


Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

<ul>
<li>Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?</li>
<li>FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.</li>
<li>Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.</li>
</ul>


Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?
FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.
Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.


QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Now that Lee Jae-Yong's legal problems appear to have finally have been resolved, it could positively impact Samsung C&amp;T, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung Biologics.</li>
<li>Given the fact that Samsung Electronics and Samsung Biologics are the two most important drivers of Samsung C&amp;T, this could positively benefit the valuation of Samsung C&amp;T. </li>
<li>Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T suggests NAV of 38.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 217,747 won which is 84% higher from current levels.</li>
</ul>


Now that Lee Jae-Yong's legal problems appear to have finally have been resolved, it could positively impact Samsung C&amp;T, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung Biologics.
Given the fact that Samsung Electronics and Samsung Biologics are the two most important drivers of Samsung C&amp;T, this could positively benefit the valuation of Samsung C&amp;T. 
Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&amp;T suggests NAV of 38.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 217,747 won which is 84% higher from current levels.


Acquittal of Lee Jae-Yong and Impact on Samsung C&T

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Rapidus Corporation -- The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.</li>
<li>How Rapidus Compares to TSMC -- Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC -- Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.</li>
</ul>


Rapidus Corporation -- The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
How Rapidus Compares to TSMC -- Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC -- Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.


Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (SMSN LI)

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

This post makes a call on when the remaining three of Samsung’s financial players (other than Samsung Fire) will drop their value-up announcements.

Sanghyun Park

QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

Nicolas Baratte

Acquittal of Lee Jae-Yong and Impact on Samsung C&T

Now that Lee Jae-Yong's legal problems appear to have finally have been resolved, it could positively impact Samsung C&T, Samsung Electronics, and...

Douglas Kim

Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

​Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

Making a Call on when Samsung’s Financial Arms Will Drop Their Value-Up Announcements

This post makes a call on when the remaining three of Samsung’s financial players (other than Samsung Fire) will drop their value-up announcements.

Sanghyun Park

QCOM: Moderate Growth, Average Valuations – Nothing to Get Excited About

​Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

Nicolas Baratte

Acquittal of Lee Jae-Yong and Impact on Samsung C&T

Now that Lee Jae-Yong's legal problems appear to have finally have been resolved, it could positively impact Samsung C&T, Samsung Electronics, and...

Douglas Kim

Japan's Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC?

​Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Stock down after hours despite strong quarter and guidance, as outlook is "average" or as expected. Management reiterates non-mobile revenue...

Japan's Rapidus aims to boost country's semiconductor industry, but faces significant challenges in catching up to TSMC's advanced nodes and cost...