Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A couple of weeks ago, Indian Financial Services Conglomerate Shriram Group's founder R Thyagarajan announced a succession plan which involved the creation of the Shriram Ownership Trust. </li>
<li>As the next step in this process, the group announced yesterday that three of its companies will merge to consolidate the group's lending operations under one roof.</li>
<li>This is one of the most anticipated corporate restructuring processes in India this year. Below is a closer look at the details of this Transaction.</li>
</ul>


A couple of weeks ago, Indian Financial Services Conglomerate Shriram Group's founder R Thyagarajan announced a succession plan which involved the creation of the Shriram Ownership Trust. 
As the next step in this process, the group announced yesterday that three of its companies will merge to consolidate the group's lending operations under one roof.
This is one of the most anticipated corporate restructuring processes in India this year. Below is a closer look at the details of this Transaction.


Shriram Group: Merger Announced to Form Largest Retail NBFC in India

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Edelweiss Broking Limited

Edelweiss

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Edelweiss Broking Limited

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Equity Bottom-Up

Steady quarter with positive outlook ; Retain BUY'<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Steady quarter with positive outlook ; Retain BUY'Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd | Q2FY22 Result Update

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Credibility Gap Widens: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 1Q22 bottom-line results of INR 1.5 bn, declining INR 2.5 bn (61.5%) linked quarter. Negative operating jaws, were the culprit, as costs increased INR 469 mn (21.1%) whilst revenues declined INR 2.6 bn (16.7%); and*Very Negative Credit Delta: Despite the limited NCOs, net new NPLs at LIC still skyrocketed INR 44.7 bn or 190.3% on an annualized basis linked quarter significantly accelerating from a very high INR 12.6 bn (62.0%) during FY 4Q21. By our calculation, if the large blip in credit continues, LIC management ought to think about adding another INR 158 bn to the reserve – which amounts to 78% of stated equity at just 50% cover of NPLs.

*Credibility Gap Widens: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 1Q22 bottom-line results of INR 1.5 bn, declining INR 2.5 bn (61.5%) linked quarter. Negative operating jaws, were the culprit, as costs increased INR 469 mn (21.1%) whilst revenues declined INR 2.6 bn (16.7%); and*Very Negative Credit Delta: Despite the limited NCOs, net new NPLs at LIC still skyrocketed INR 44.7 bn or 190.3% on an annualized basis linked quarter significantly accelerating from a very high INR 12.6 bn (62.0%) during FY 4Q21. By our calculation, if the large blip in credit continues, LIC management ought to think about adding another INR 158 bn to the reserve – which amounts to 78% of stated equity at just 50% cover of NPLs.

LIC Housing Finance – Unmitigated Disaster

Asset quality outcome better than expectations<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Asset quality outcome better than expectationsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. Rs Q1FY22 Result Update

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

India

Shriram Finance Limited provides consumer finance services. The Company offers automobile, commercial vehicle, business, and gold loan services. Shriram Finance serves customers in India.

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Shriram Finance (SHFL IN)

Shriram Group: Merger Announced to Form Largest Retail NBFC in India

Indian Financial Services Conglomerate Shriram Group has announced a Merger between three of its group companies. This is one of India's most...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd | Q2FY22 Result Update

Steady quarter with positive outlook ; Retain BUY'

Edelweiss

LIC Housing Finance – Unmitigated Disaster

LIC HOUSING: LIC's FY 1Q22 bottom-line results declined 61.5% linked quarter due to negative operating jaws. Net new NPLs skyrocketed 190.3%...

Thomas J. Monaco

Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. Rs Q1FY22 Result Update

Asset quality outcome better than expectations

Edelweiss

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: According to the RBI, NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad. This couldn't be further from the truth. NPLs continue to...

Thomas J. Monaco

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