Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF)</a> reported a strong Q3FY24 on the back of a strong NIM. Growth, however, has been tepid as LICHF recently transitioned its technology and organizational structure.</li>
<li>FY24 has been a consolidation year due to technology and organizational changes; however, LICHF is setting up well to post strong growth in FY25.</li>
<li>Among other things, affordable housing is going to be a key growth area going forward. Asset quality has been also improving and should further normalize with recoveries and upgradations.</li>
</ul>



LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) reported a strong Q3FY24 on the back of a strong NIM. Growth, however, has been tepid as LICHF recently transitioned its technology and organizational structure.
FY24 has been a consolidation year due to technology and organizational changes; however, LICHF is setting up well to post strong growth in FY25.
Among other things, affordable housing is going to be a key growth area going forward. Asset quality has been also improving and should further normalize with recoveries and upgradations.


LICHF: FY24 PAT Is on Track to Be Strong | FY25 Will Be a Year of Robust Growth

<ul>
<li>LICHF reported a decent Q2FY24 led by a strong NIM (3.04%). Growth has been somewhat subdued due to technical issues, however, these have been resolved and October is tracking well.</li>
<li>LICHF reiterated its full-year FY24 NIM guidance at 2.6-2.8%. Credit cost, except for one-off item of INR 104cr in Q2FY24, continues to be below 50bp annualized.</li>
<li>Despite a subdued H1FY24, LICHF has maintained its FY24 AUM growth guidance to 10%+. This implies that LICHF can grow AUM at 5%+ QoQ over the next two quarters.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported a decent Q2FY24 led by a strong NIM (3.04%). Growth has been somewhat subdued due to technical issues, however, these have been resolved and October is tracking well.
LICHF reiterated its full-year FY24 NIM guidance at 2.6-2.8%. Credit cost, except for one-off item of INR 104cr in Q2FY24, continues to be below 50bp annualized.
Despite a subdued H1FY24, LICHF has maintained its FY24 AUM growth guidance to 10%+. This implies that LICHF can grow AUM at 5%+ QoQ over the next two quarters.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)</a> posted a strong Q1FY24, despite an adverse one-off reversible impact. Q1FY24 PAT came in at INR 1319cr vs INR 1191cr QoQ and INR 927cr YoY.  </li>
<li>With the interest rates stabilizing, housing demand has been improving. LICHF's asset quality has been also improving, adjusted for one-off technical glitch related deterioration.  </li>
<li>At around 6x P/E based on our projected FY24E PAT, LICHF is available quite cheap and has potential to more than double from the current levels. </li>
</ul>



LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN) posted a strong Q1FY24, despite an adverse one-off reversible impact. Q1FY24 PAT came in at INR 1319cr vs INR 1191cr QoQ and INR 927cr YoY.  
With the interest rates stabilizing, housing demand has been improving. LICHF's asset quality has been also improving, adjusted for one-off technical glitch related deterioration.  
At around 6x P/E based on our projected FY24E PAT, LICHF is available quite cheap and has potential to more than double from the current levels. 


<ul>
<li>LICHF reported a strong Q4FY23 with a PAT of INR 1180cr. This takes the FY23 PAT to INR 2891cr, well above our estimate of INR 2700cr.</li>
<li>Asset quality worsened as Stage 2 assets increased to 5.25% vs 3.92%. However, this is temporary due to one-off interest rate hike related technical issues in EMI payments.</li>
<li>LICHF has guided for a strong FY24, led by margin expansion and AUM growth. As credit costs remain benign, profitability should jump significantly.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported a strong Q4FY23 with a PAT of INR 1180cr. This takes the FY23 PAT to INR 2891cr, well above our estimate of INR 2700cr.
Asset quality worsened as Stage 2 assets increased to 5.25% vs 3.92%. However, this is temporary due to one-off interest rate hike related technical issues in EMI payments.
LICHF has guided for a strong FY24, led by margin expansion and AUM growth. As credit costs remain benign, profitability should jump significantly.


LICHF: Q4FY23 Earnings Better than Expected; Asset Quality Worsened Optically But Nothing Worrisome

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY) and high credit costs (60bps)</li><li>LICHF’s NIMs continued to surprise positively at 3% (-4bps QoQ) due to muted balance sheet growth, however, the lower incremental spreads amidst elevated competitive intensity, moderation in demand and rising cost of funds are likely to normalise margins near steady state during FY25</li><li>Loan growth remains tepid (+5% YoY) across segments due to organisational and tech changes as per management and remains a key concern</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY) and high credit costs (60bps)LICHF’s NIMs continued to surprise positively at 3% (-4bps QoQ) due to muted balance sheet growth, however, the lower incremental spreads amidst elevated competitive intensity, moderation in demand and rising cost of funds are likely to normalise margins near steady state during FY25Loan growth remains tepid (+5% YoY) across segments due to organisational and tech changes as per management and remains a key concernContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, BSE, Century Plyboards India

India

LIC Housing Finance Limited provides housing finance services to individuals for purchase, construction, repair and renovation of new or existing flats and houses. The Company also provides finance on existing property for business, personal needs and gives loans to professionals for purchase, construction of clinics, nursing homes, diagnostic centers, and office space throughout India.

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

LICHF: FY24 PAT Is on Track to Be Strong | FY25 Will Be a Year of Robust Growth

LICHF reported a decent Q3FY24 lead by a healthy NIM. We have upgraded FY24E PAT to INR 4500cr+. FY24 has had tepid growth due to transitions but...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: H2FY24 Guided to Be Strong

LICHF is available at a cheap valuation of <8x P/E based on our FY24 estimated PAT. At the current valuation, an investment in LICHF has potential...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: On Track for a Record FY24 PAT

LICHF is on track to post a record PAT of INR 4100cr+ in FY24. At the current market cap, it is available at a P/E of around 6x, suggesting that it...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: Q4FY23 Earnings Better than Expected; Asset Quality Worsened Optically But Nothing Worrisome

An investment in LICHF has potential to triple over the next couple of years. FY24E PAT is likely to be INR 4100cr+, suggesting that at the current...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: LIC Housing Finance, BSE, Century Plyboards India

LIC Housing Finance: LICHF’s earnings were ahead of our estimates due to sustained healthy NIMs, partially offset by muted loan growth (+5% YoY)...

HDFC Securities