Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


-------------
Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
-------------

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As projected by us, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lic-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15667:1" rel="noopener">LIC Housing Finance ("LICHF")</a> ended FY25 with a strong PAT of INR 5400cr+ (up 14%+ YoY), led by normalized credit cost of around 0.1%.</li>
<li>Q4FY25 PAT at INR 1374cr grew strong at 25%+ YoY. FY25 AUM grew 7.1% despite certain technical challenges. Total disbursements in FY25 grew at 9% YoY. </li>
<li>NIM ended FY25 at 2.73%, in line with the expectation. Led by technical write-offs and sale of certain NPAs to ARCs, Stage 3 assets improved to 2.47% vs 3.31% YoY.</li>
</ul>


As projected by us, LIC Housing Finance ("LICHF") ended FY25 with a strong PAT of INR 5400cr+ (up 14%+ YoY), led by normalized credit cost of around 0.1%.
Q4FY25 PAT at INR 1374cr grew strong at 25%+ YoY. FY25 AUM grew 7.1% despite certain technical challenges. Total disbursements in FY25 grew at 9% YoY. 
NIM ended FY25 at 2.73%, in line with the expectation. Led by technical write-offs and sale of certain NPAs to ARCs, Stage 3 assets improved to 2.47% vs 3.31% YoY.


LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation

<ul>
<li>LICHF reported PAT growth of 23% YoY in Q3FY25 led by benign credit cost. Credit cost was negative (-44cr) in Q3FY25 vs INR 435cr (0.2%+ of AUM) in Q3FY24.</li>
<li>Stage 1 assets improved to 93.25% of AUM vs 93.09% QoQ. NIM continues to be stable at around 2.7%, similar to last quarter, making the earnings predictable now. </li>
<li>Led by low credit cost, LICHF is on track to achieve FY25 PAT as per our estimate of INR 5400cr+. This implies LICHF is currently trading at below 6x P/E.</li>
</ul>


LICHF reported PAT growth of 23% YoY in Q3FY25 led by benign credit cost. Credit cost was negative (-44cr) in Q3FY25 vs INR 435cr (0.2%+ of AUM) in Q3FY24.
Stage 1 assets improved to 93.25% of AUM vs 93.09% QoQ. NIM continues to be stable at around 2.7%, similar to last quarter, making the earnings predictable now. 
Led by low credit cost, LICHF is on track to achieve FY25 PAT as per our estimate of INR 5400cr+. This implies LICHF is currently trading at below 6x P/E.


LICHF: Benign Credit Cost Led to Strong Q3FY25

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kotak-mahindra-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1" rel="noopener">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance (BAF IN)</a>, based on statistical mean reversion analysis.</li>
<li>
Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +4.7% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.</li>
</ul>



Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) and Bajaj Finance (BAF IN), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.

Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a +4.7% return.

Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.


Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) - Trade Exit and Take Profit

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Kaynes Technology India / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaynes-technology-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36436:1" rel="noopener">Kaynes Technology India (KAYNES IN)</a> is looking to raise around US$185m in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).</li>
<li>In an announcement released on Jan 22, 2025, Kaynes had mentioned its board’s approval to raise up to INR16bn via a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 8.6%.</li>
<li>The deal would not be a large one to digest at 4.3 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did well.</li>
</ul>



Kaynes Technology India (KAYNES IN) is looking to raise around US$185m in its upcoming qualified institutional placement (QIP).
In an announcement released on Jan 22, 2025, Kaynes had mentioned its board’s approval to raise up to INR16bn via a QIP. Since then, the shares have corrected 8.6%.
The deal would not be a large one to digest at 4.3 days of three month ADV. The company’s last fundraise did well.


Kaynes Technology QIP Early Look - QIP to Fund Global Expansion Plans

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>LICHF’s 3QFY25 PAT grew ~23% YoY to ~INR14.3b (~12% beat).</li><li>NII declined ~5% YoY to ~INR20b (in line).</li><li>Opex was high and grew ~36% YoY to INR3.6b (~11% higher than MOFSLe) and the cost-to-income ratio rose ~2pp YoY to ~17% (PY: ~12% and PQ: ~15%).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LICHF’s 3QFY25 PAT grew ~23% YoY to ~INR14.3b (~12% beat).NII declined ~5% YoY to ~INR20b (in line).Opex was high and grew ~36% YoY to INR3.6b (~11% higher than MOFSLe) and the cost-to-income ratio rose ~2pp YoY to ~17% (PY: ~12% and PQ: ~15%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LIC Housing Finance - Disbursements Weak but Asset Quality Continues to Improve

India

LIC Housing Finance Limited provides housing finance services to individuals for purchase, construction, repair and renovation of new or existing flats and houses. The Company also provides finance on existing property for business, personal needs and gives loans to professionals for purchase, construction of clinics, nursing homes, diagnostic centers, and office space throughout India.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

LIC Housing Finance (LICHF IN)

LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation

LICHF reported a decent FY25 despite certain technical challenges. It is all set to report a strong FY26. At current valuation, LICHF is trading...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: Benign Credit Cost Led to Strong Q3FY25

LICHF is attractively valued at below 6x P/E on a base of FY25E PAT of INR 5400cr+. At current valuation, an investment in LICHF has potential to...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) - Trade Exit and Take Profit

Update on pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance. The pair has profitably mean-reverted, showcasing the potential...

Gaudenz Schneider

Kaynes Technology QIP Early Look - QIP to Fund Global Expansion Plans

Kaynes Technology (KAYNES IN) has launched an upto INR16bn (US$185m) QIP of around 2.85m shares in a INR5,344.50–Rs5,612/share range, a 0%–4.8%...

Akshat Shah

LIC Housing Finance - Disbursements Weak but Asset Quality Continues to Improve

Opex was high and grew ~36% YoY to INR3.6b (~11% higher than MOFSLe) and the cost-to-income ratio rose ~2pp YoY to ~17% (PY: ~12% and PQ: ~15%).

Motilal Oswal

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LICHF: FY25 Performance Ended in Line With the Expectation

LICHF reported a decent FY25 despite certain technical challenges. It is all set to report a strong FY26. At current valuation, LICHF is trading...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

LICHF: Benign Credit Cost Led to Strong Q3FY25

LICHF is attractively valued at below 6x P/E on a base of FY25E PAT of INR 5400cr+. At current valuation, an investment in LICHF has potential to...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance (BAF IN) Vs. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN) - Trade Exit and Take Profit

​Update on pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance. The pair has profitably mean-reverted, showcasing the potential...

Gaudenz Schneider

Kaynes Technology QIP Early Look - QIP to Fund Global Expansion Plans

Kaynes Technology (KAYNES IN) has launched an upto INR16bn (US$185m) QIP of around 2.85m shares in a INR5,344.50–Rs5,612/share range, a 0%–4.8%...

Akshat Shah

LIC Housing Finance - Disbursements Weak but Asset Quality Continues to Improve

Opex was high and grew ~36% YoY to INR3.6b (~11% higher than MOFSLe) and the cost-to-income ratio rose ~2pp YoY to ~17% (PY: ~12% and PQ: ~15%).

Motilal Oswal

Update on pair trading opportunity between Kotak Mahindra Bank and Bajaj Finance. The pair has profitably mean-reverted, showcasing the potential...