Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.  </li>
<li>The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term. </li>
<li>We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production. </li>
</ul>


Inventory depletion across the LME and SHFE continued as copper prices breached the 10k USD level to end the week 3.7% higher.  
The COMEX-LME spread breached $1,000/ton again, leading us to be confident that there will be a further rally in the short term. 
We see an easy journey to 11,000 USD/ton on a weaker dollar, stronger COMEX premiums, depleted inventory levels, and lower-than-expected global production. 


Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

<ul>
<li>Copper prices on the spot market are set to breach 10,000 USD/ton again as inventory levels tighten on the LME, driven by a rush to ship metal to the US. </li>
<li>Current KPIs in China, such as weak steel production (-2-3% YoY est.) and thermal power production (-19% YoY) for May temper our bullishness.  </li>
<li>We are bullish on copper in the short term, expecting it to break above $10,000 USD easily. However, we will closely monitor China data for potential impacts on the outlook.</li>
</ul>


Copper prices on the spot market are set to breach 10,000 USD/ton again as inventory levels tighten on the LME, driven by a rush to ship metal to the US. 
Current KPIs in China, such as weak steel production (-2-3% YoY est.) and thermal power production (-19% YoY) for May temper our bullishness.  
We are bullish on copper in the short term, expecting it to break above $10,000 USD easily. However, we will closely monitor China data for potential impacts on the outlook.


Copper Tracker 23rd June 2025: Bullish On Low Inventory, But Need To Monitor China

<ul>
<li>The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. </li>
<li>We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> ).</li>
</ul>


The narrative surrounding China's front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April's total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).


Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a> provided future guidance for up to 500,000 tons/year of production from the current levels of 300,000-330,000 tons/year.</li>
<li>Near-Term guidance has the company maintaining the 300,000-ton production level until at least 2027, with the technical report on Vicuna mines expected to be completed by Q1 2026.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/post-results-fy24-mine-by-mine-plan-production-commentary-on-copper-from-global-listed-companies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:179155" rel="noopener">Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies</a> highlights a 3% supply growth and the market moving into a deficit.</li>
</ul>



Lundin Mining (LUN CN) provided future guidance for up to 500,000 tons/year of production from the current levels of 300,000-330,000 tons/year.
Near-Term guidance has the company maintaining the 300,000-ton production level until at least 2027, with the technical report on Vicuna mines expected to be completed by Q1 2026.

Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies highlights a 3% supply growth and the market moving into a deficit.


Vicuna Mines: Shaping Up to Be Big, But Production Far Out

<ul>
<li>China's copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.</li>
<li>The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.</li>
<li>We provide updates on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN</a> )'s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals. </li>
</ul>


China's copper and concentrate imports surged 24.4% YoY to 2.92 million tons, while the Yangshan Premium exceeded $100/ton, reaching a one-year high, indicating robust demand and tight supply conditions.
The easing of US-China trade tensions, with the US expected to reduce tariffs, could potentially support a more bullish market outlook in the near term.
We provide updates on Lundin Mining (LUN CN )'s latest Q1 results and updates from their call on Vicuna Minerals. 


Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China's Whopping Copper Imports

Canada

Lundin Mining Corporation is a diversified base metals mining company with operations in Chile, Portugal, Sweden, Spain and the United States, producing copper, zinc, lead and nickel. The Company holds interest in the Tenke Fungurume copper/cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and a cobalt refinery located in Kokkola, Finland.

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Lundin Mining (LUN CN)

Copper Breaches 10k USD: Easy Journey to 11k USD/Ton On Lower Inventories In The Short Term

We project copper to rally to $11,000/ton soon, driven by dwindling inventories, supply disruptions, high COMEX premiums, and a weaker dollar.

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 23rd June 2025: Bullish On Low Inventory, But Need To Monitor China

We highlight KPIs for tracking copper, including inventory data, exchange spreads, and TSF for China. We also list our top picks in equities for...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 26th May 2025: TSF Momentum Dampened on Trump Tariffs in April

This insight covers the KPIs we track in the short term, confirming our constructive view on copper. We also look at our top equity picks in the...

Sameer Taneja

Vicuna Mines: Shaping Up to Be Big, But Production Far Out

We highlight the progress made on a major copper project undertaken by Lundin Mining. As the Vicuna mines demonstrate, ramping up the copper supply...

Sameer Taneja

Copper Tracker 12th May 2025: Bullish On China's Whopping Copper Imports

China's copper and concentrate imports hit a record 2.924 million tons, up 24.4% YoY, beating expectations despite trade war concerns, signaling...

Sameer Taneja

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