Hao Wang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is a quick update from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/be-aggressive-in-q1-2016-and-be-defensive-through-rest-of-2016" target="_blank">my start-of-the year call</a> for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/008/126/original/2.png?1463320298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="8126"><figcaption class="figcaption">Dollar</figcaption></figure>…

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2. Almost exactly as I wrote, the dollar (DXY) has weakened 7.9% since the high of 99.83 at the start of the year to 91.92 in early May, commodities (SPGSCI Index) has rallied 35.7% during the same period. China, which has been a center of risk since last August, has clearly seen stabilization in economy, capital outflow, and stock markets. Dollar…

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp V-shaped bounce from the pullback 2 wks back</li><li>If the strong USD trend continues, we’d expect risk-off to be the flavour of the moment with EM, Commodities &amp; equities in general set to decline</li><li>Check out the long NOKSEK SaxoStrats idea flagged by our Head of FX Strategy John Hardy – I like the thesis, it definitely worth doing some heavy lifting on this</li><li>Plus a few links to the Sohn Investment Conference where movers &amp; shakers such as Chanos &amp; Druckenmiller were talking their views </li></ul>

Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp V-shaped bounce from the pullback 2 wks backIf the strong USD trend continues, we’d expect risk-off to be the flavour of the moment with EM, Commodities &amp; equities in general set to declineCheck out the long NOKSEK SaxoStrats idea flagged by our Head of FX Strategy John Hardy – I like the thesis, it definitely worth doing some heavy lifting on thisPlus a few links to the Sohn Investment Conference where movers &amp; shakers such as Chanos &amp; Druckenmiller were talking their views 

Global Macro Take: WK 20 – The US Dollar Just Won't Die

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At 80 years of age, the retirement of al-Naimi had been on the cards for a number of years, with some indications that it had been scheduled to occur five years ago, but was postponed given the need for stability as the Arab Spring erupted in the region.Now that he has moved on to a position as advisor to the Royal Court, whether Saudi oil policy will…

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and narrowing credit spreads</li><li class="p1">After many years of underperformance, value stocks reasserted themselves in the first quarter, outperforming growth</li><li class="p1">A year ago, small stocks looked overvalued, but after a 9.8% drop (versus a 1.8% gain for large stocks), they are now closer to fairly valued territory</li></ul>Analysts: Bob Johnson, Timothy Strauts, Alina Lamy

All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and narrowing credit spreadsAfter many years of underperformance, value stocks reasserted themselves in the first quarter, outperforming growthA year ago, small stocks looked overvalued, but after a 9.8% drop (versus a 1.8% gain for large stocks), they are now closer to fairly valued territoryAnalysts: Bob Johnson, Timothy Strauts, Alina Lamy

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force.

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force. 

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

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PetroChina (857 HK)

Be Prepared for a Stronger Dollar in 2nd Half

This is a quick update from my start-of-the year call for a weaker dollar and rally in commodities in Q1 and a bit of extension but reversal in Q2....

Hao Wang, CFA

Global Macro Take: WK 20 – The US Dollar Just Won't Die

Key close on DXY above 94.50 on a Friday, liquidating my thesis on a tactical USD liquidation phase. Seems like we’ve now had a very sharp...

Kay Van-Petersen

New Saudi Oil Minister, Old Saudi Oil Policy

This weekend saw the retirement of long-serving Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and his replacement by the Chairman of Aramco, Khalid al-Falih.At...

Emad Mostaque

Morningstar Markets Observer: Q2 2016

All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and...

Morningstar, Inc.

Saudi: A New Hope?

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the...

Emad Mostaque

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